Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Apr. 26, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $479.8000 (-0.79%) ($477.7000 - $489.3000) on Mon. Apr. 26, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.5% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $479.8000(-0.79%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.75% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(5%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.75% (StdDev 3.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $464.02(3.4%)
10 Day Moving Average   $452.31(6.08%)
20 Day Moving Average   $434.51(10.42%)
To recent high   -0.8%
To recent low   47%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.15% (three month std-dev: 3.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.86%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -2%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 3.43%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100526

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_26_2010	399.59	434.51	452.31	464.02	462.33	475.91	479.8(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	327	190	365	214	0.26	63%	0.26	86.5	3.5%	0	1.7	68	0
2	Apr_23_2010	398.54	428.79	448.22	454.16	453.14	456.71	483.6(6.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	205	50	225	143	0.32	63%	0.26	67.2	3.49%	0	1.9	70	0
3	Apr_22_2010	397.51	422.78	443.32	443.54	441.82	448.75	452.7(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	19	100	10	46	0.27	56%	0.14	50.1	3.42%	0	1	70	0
4	Apr_21_2010	396.96	419.23	440.54	442.86	439.41	449.58	450.8(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	197	140	216	140	0.23	53%	0.11	43.2	3.54%	0	1.1	75	0
5	Apr_20_2010	396.51	416	437.43	442.26	438.45	434.89	453.2(5.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	92	-80	89	100	0.19	50%	0.16	40.4	3.64%	0	1.3	77	0

6	Apr_19_2010	395.87	412.57	434.97	438.98	437.62	429.24	430.5(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-154	-140	-204	-5	0.29	48%	0.1	36.8	3.63%	0	0.6	74	0
7	Apr_16_2010	395.46	410.47	434.89	441.14	440.76	442	430.5(-4.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-31	20	-68	81	0.56	48%	0.09	36.1	3.64%	0	0.7	79	0
8	Apr_15_2010	395.09	408.92	432.96	442.64	442.13	446	449.3(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	140	60	125	183	0.17	50%	0.08	37.6	3.63%	0	1.5	88	0
9	Apr_14_2010	394.77	407.11	427.15	437.62	438.6	439.51	447.8(2.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	100	20	80	160	0.29	50%	0.1	36.7	3.65%	0	1.6	74	0
10	Apr_13_2010	394.36	404.77	420.92	431.82	431.81	438.25	436.8(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	62	100	38	133	0.25	50%	0.09	34	3.64%	0	1.3	69	0

11	Apr_12_2010	394	402.58	415.67	430.44	428.35	437.69	441.3(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	197	140	197	196	0.29	48%	0.14	33.9	3.64%	0	1.7	71	0
12	Apr_9_2010	393.45	400.65	408.08	427.9	425.39	425.38	438(3.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	129	-20	121	154	0.21	48%	-0.01	35.4	3.65%	0	1.8	68	0
13	Apr_8_2010	393.49	398.87	400.65	421.92	422.21	419.01	424.2(1.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-25	-50	-53	58	0.43	48%	-0.13	36.9	3.65%	0	1.3	57	0
14	Apr_7_2010	394	397.86	396.23	414.86	419.19	425.4	418.8(-2.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	81	140	81	81	0.48	48%	-0.16	33.5	3.66%	0	1.1	48	0
15	Apr_6_2010	394.65	396.76	392.82	407.9	410.45	425.41	429.9(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	243	270	278	136	0.26	48%	-0.14	28.6	3.64%	0	1.9	56	0

16	Apr_5_2010	395.2	394.99	388.03	398.44	399.01	412.99	428.6(5.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	297	250	350	139	0.36	48%	-0.19	22.7	3.67%	0	2.1	59	0
17	Apr_1_2010	395.96	393.34	383.5	385.46	387.66	395.49	408.1(4.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	186	160	230	54	0.32	50%	-0.17	12.3	3.77%	0	1	49	0
18	Mar_31_2010	396.65	391.9	382.34	376.46	377.79	385.04	388.9(1.28%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	65	140	94	-23	0.4	47%	-0.23	1.1	3.75%	0	-0.2	42	0
19	Mar_30_2010	397.55	391.73	384.93	374.94	374.93	379.84	384(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	91	90	125	-11	0.26	47%	-0.23	5.8	3.76%	0	-0.5	40	0
20	Mar_29_2010	398.48	391.7	386.93	375.5	374.66	370.55	382.6(5.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-22	-80	-9	-62	0.32	47%	-0.17	15.4	3.76%	0	-0.6	44	0

21	Mar_26_2010	399.15	391.33	388.25	376.18	376.56	370.03	363.7(0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-150	-120	-159	-124	0.41	45%	-0.24	16	3.68%	0	-1.7	35	0
22	Mar_25_2010	400.1	391.57	392.8	381.12	380.6	378.78	363.1(-4.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-102	-40	-106	-89	0.48	45%	-0.19	17.6	3.71%	0	-1.8	34	0
23	Mar_24_2010	400.85	391.74	397.48	388.76	385.16	383.09	381.3(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-54	-70	-57	-44	0.31	47%	-0.14	24	3.69%	0	-0.6	55	0
24	Mar_23_2010	401.41	390.9	400.24	396.34	391.94	382.43	386.8(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-115	-200	-137	-50	0.34	47%	-0.09	29.1	3.69%	0	-0.2	54	0
25	Mar_22_2010	401.77	389.45	401.69	400.14	400.13	387.24	386(-0.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-197	-230	-237	-75	0.33	47%		28	3.7%	0	-0.2	55	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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