Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Apr. 20, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $453.2000 (5.27%) ($437.2000 - $458.2000) on Tue. Apr. 20, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.64% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $453.2000(5.27%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.82% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(5%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.82% (StdDev 3.64%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $442.26(2.47%)
10 Day Moving Average   $437.43(3.61%)
20 Day Moving Average   $416(8.94%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   38.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.88% (three month std-dev: 3.64%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 1.63%(67%) Average negative next day return: -1.34%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 2.75%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -1.31%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.04%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100520

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_20_2010	396.51	416	437.43	442.26	438.45	434.89	453.2(5.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	92	-80	89	100	0.19	50%	0.16	40.4	3.64%	0	1.3	77	NAN
2	Apr_19_2010	395.87	412.57	434.97	438.98	437.62	429.24	430.5(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-154	-140	-204	-5	0.29	48%	0.1	36.8	3.63%	0	0.6	74	NAN
3	Apr_16_2010	395.46	410.47	434.89	441.14	440.76	442	430.5(-4.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-31	20	-68	81	0.56	48%	0.09	36.1	3.64%	0	0.7	79	NAN
4	Apr_15_2010	395.09	408.92	432.96	442.64	442.13	446	449.3(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	140	60	125	183	0.17	50%	0.08	37.6	3.63%	0	1.5	88	NAN
5	Apr_14_2010	394.77	407.11	427.15	437.62	438.6	439.51	447.8(2.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	100	20	80	160	0.29	50%	0.1	36.7	3.65%	0	1.6	74	NAN

6	Apr_13_2010	394.36	404.77	420.92	431.82	431.81	438.25	436.8(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	62	100	38	133	0.25	50%	0.09	34	3.64%	0	1.3	69	NAN
7	Apr_12_2010	394	402.58	415.67	430.44	428.35	437.69	441.3(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	197	140	197	196	0.29	48%	0.14	33.9	3.64%	0	1.7	71	NAN
8	Apr_9_2010	393.45	400.65	408.08	427.9	425.39	425.38	438(3.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	129	-20	121	154	0.21	48%	-0.01	35.4	3.65%	0	1.8	68	NAN
9	Apr_8_2010	393.49	398.87	400.65	421.92	422.21	419.01	424.2(1.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-25	-50	-53	58	0.43	48%	-0.13	36.9	3.65%	0	1.3	57	NAN
10	Apr_7_2010	394	397.86	396.23	414.86	419.19	425.4	418.8(-2.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	81	140	81	81	0.48	48%	-0.16	33.5	3.66%	0	1.1	48	NAN

11	Apr_6_2010	394.65	396.76	392.82	407.9	410.45	425.41	429.9(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	243	270	278	136	0.26	48%	-0.14	28.6	3.64%	0	1.9	56	NAN
12	Apr_5_2010	395.2	394.99	388.03	398.44	399.01	412.99	428.6(5.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	297	250	350	139	0.36	48%	-0.19	22.7	3.67%	0	2.1	59	NAN
13	Apr_1_2010	395.96	393.34	383.5	385.46	387.66	395.49	408.1(4.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	186	160	230	54	0.32	50%	-0.17	12.3	3.77%	0	1	49	NAN
14	Mar_31_2010	396.65	391.9	382.34	376.46	377.79	385.04	388.9(1.28%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	65	140	94	-23	0.4	47%	-0.23	1.1	3.75%	0	-0.2	42	NAN
15	Mar_30_2010	397.55	391.73	384.93	374.94	374.93	379.84	384(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	91	90	125	-11	0.26	47%	-0.23	5.8	3.76%	0	-0.5	40	NAN

16	Mar_29_2010	398.48	391.7	386.93	375.5	374.66	370.55	382.6(5.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-22	-80	-9	-62	0.32	47%	-0.17	15.4	3.76%	0	-0.6	44	NAN
17	Mar_26_2010	399.15	391.33	388.25	376.18	376.56	370.03	363.7(0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-150	-120	-159	-124	0.41	45%	-0.24	16	3.68%	0	-1.7	35	NAN
18	Mar_25_2010	400.1	391.57	392.8	381.12	380.6	378.78	363.1(-4.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-102	-40	-106	-89	0.48	45%	-0.19	17.6	3.71%	0	-1.8	34	NAN
19	Mar_24_2010	400.85	391.74	397.48	388.76	385.16	383.09	381.3(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-54	-70	-57	-44	0.31	47%	-0.14	24	3.69%	0	-0.6	55	NAN
20	Mar_23_2010	401.41	390.9	400.24	396.34	391.94	382.43	386.8(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-115	-200	-137	-50	0.34	47%	-0.09	29.1	3.69%	0	-0.2	54	NAN

21	Mar_22_2010	401.77	389.45	401.69	400.14	400.13	387.24	386(-0.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-197	-230	-237	-75	0.33	47%	-0.08	28	3.7%	0	-0.2	55	NAN
22	Mar_19_2010	402.1	388.82	403.16	402.14	405.31	401.46	388.4(-3.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-134	-40	-168	-32	0.38	47%	-0.2	35.1	3.69%	0	-0	61	NAN
23	Mar_18_2010	402.92	388.73	404.54	406.04	405.99	413.03	401.3(-4.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	57	120	49	79	0.33	47%	-0.08	48.7	3.7%	0	0.7	71	NAN
24	Mar_17_2010	403.23	387.83	402.62	407.3	406.18	409.15	419.2(3.3%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	159	40	165	139	0.31	49%	-0.14	63	3.65%	0	1.7	82	NAN
25	Mar_16_2010	403.8	385.67	399.11	405.04	403.42	398.95	405.8(2.47%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-33	-90	-62	55	0.27	49%		75	3.64%	0	1.2	79	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.