Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. Apr. 8, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $424.2000 (1.29%) ($404.1000 - $427.6000) on Thu. Apr. 8, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.65% (three month average)
RSI   57
Latest Price   $424.2000(1.29%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 4.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.825% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(5%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.825% (StdDev 3.65%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $421.92(0.54%)
10 Day Moving Average   $400.65(5.88%)
20 Day Moving Average   $398.87(6.35%)
To recent high   -8.2%
To recent low   29.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.83% (three month std-dev: 3.65%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.45%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -4.45%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.12%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100508

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_8_2010	393.49	398.87	400.65	421.92	422.21	419.01	424.2(1.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-25	-50	-53	58	0.43	48%	-0.13	36.9	3.65%	0	1.3	57	0
2	Apr_7_2010	394	397.86	396.23	414.86	419.19	425.4	418.8(-2.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	81	140	81	81	0.48	48%	-0.16	33.5	3.66%	0	1.1	48	0
3	Apr_6_2010	394.65	396.76	392.82	407.9	410.45	425.41	429.9(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	243	270	278	136	0.26	48%	-0.14	28.6	3.64%	0	1.9	56	0
4	Apr_5_2010	395.2	394.99	388.03	398.44	399.01	412.99	428.6(5.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	297	250	350	139	0.36	48%	-0.19	22.7	3.67%	0	2.1	59	0
5	Apr_1_2010	395.96	393.34	383.5	385.46	387.66	395.49	408.1(4.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	186	160	230	54	0.32	50%	-0.17	12.3	3.77%	0	1	49	0

6	Mar_31_2010	396.65	391.9	382.34	376.46	377.79	385.04	388.9(1.28%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	65	140	94	-23	0.4	47%	-0.23	1.1	3.75%	0	-0.2	42	0
7	Mar_30_2010	397.55	391.73	384.93	374.94	374.93	379.84	384(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	91	90	125	-11	0.26	47%	-0.23	5.8	3.76%	0	-0.5	40	0
8	Mar_29_2010	398.48	391.7	386.93	375.5	374.66	370.55	382.6(5.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-22	-80	-9	-62	0.32	47%	-0.17	15.4	3.76%	0	-0.6	44	0
9	Mar_26_2010	399.15	391.33	388.25	376.18	376.56	370.03	363.7(0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-150	-120	-159	-124	0.41	45%	-0.24	16	3.68%	0	-1.7	35	0
10	Mar_25_2010	400.1	391.57	392.8	381.12	380.6	378.78	363.1(-4.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-102	-40	-106	-89	0.48	45%	-0.19	17.6	3.71%	0	-1.8	34	0

11	Mar_24_2010	400.85	391.74	397.48	388.76	385.16	383.09	381.3(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-54	-70	-57	-44	0.31	47%	-0.14	24	3.69%	0	-0.6	55	0
12	Mar_23_2010	401.41	390.9	400.24	396.34	391.94	382.43	386.8(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-115	-200	-137	-50	0.34	47%	-0.09	29.1	3.69%	0	-0.2	54	0
13	Mar_22_2010	401.77	389.45	401.69	400.14	400.13	387.24	386(-0.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-197	-230	-237	-75	0.33	47%	-0.08	28	3.7%	0	-0.2	55	0
14	Mar_19_2010	402.1	388.82	403.16	402.14	405.31	401.46	388.4(-3.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-134	-40	-168	-32	0.38	47%	-0.2	35.1	3.69%	0	-0	61	0
15	Mar_18_2010	402.92	388.73	404.54	406.04	405.99	413.03	401.3(-4.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	57	120	49	79	0.33	47%	-0.08	48.7	3.7%	0	0.7	71	0

16	Mar_17_2010	403.23	387.83	402.62	407.3	406.18	409.15	419.2(3.3%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	159	40	165	139	0.31	49%	-0.14	63	3.65%	0	1.7	82	0
17	Mar_16_2010	403.8	385.67	399.11	405.04	403.42	398.95	405.8(2.47%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-33	-90	-62	55	0.27	49%	-0.15	75	3.64%	0	1.2	79	0
18	Mar_15_2010	404.41	384.33	396.75	403.78	404.01	403.2	396(-2.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-34	-10	-67	64	0.37	49%	-0.24	90.7	3.64%	0	0.7	80	0
19	Mar_12_2010	405.39	382.42	394.58	404.26	404.19	407.89	407.9(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	80	60	66	123	0.22	49%	-0.28	94.9	3.59%	0	1.5	69	0
20	Mar_11_2010	406.52	379.91	390.15	402.7	401.7	404.83	407.6(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	98	50	90	120	0.3	49%	-0.27	102.2	3.62%	0	1.6	58	0

21	Mar_10_2010	407.63	376.61	385.45	397.04	398.97	400.49	407.9(2.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	81	40	77	93	0.28	49%	-0.27	79	3.62%	0	1.8	59	0
22	Mar_9_2010	408.75	373.44	380.63	392.34	393.64	398.58	399.5(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	46	100	41	60	0.2	49%	-0.32	61.2	3.63%	0	1.5	59	0
23	Mar_8_2010	410.07	369.88	376.06	388.7	391.19	397.45	398.4(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	147	130	166	91	0.13	47%	-0.28	39.3	3.63%	0	1.5	57	0
24	Mar_5_2010	411.23	366.66	373.1	383.4	386.57	388.71	400.1(5.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	101	60	113	63	0.34	47%	-0.28	29.2	3.66%	0	1.8	68	0
25	Mar_4_2010	412.38	363.39	371.28	375.82	380.42	384.93	379.3(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	120	56	33	0.24	44%		12.9	3.62%	0	0.9	61	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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