Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Mar. 5, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $400.1000 (5.48%) ($388.7000 - $401.3000) on Fri. Mar. 5, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.66% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $400.1000(5.48%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.83% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(5%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.83% (StdDev 3.66%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $383.4(4.36%)
10 Day Moving Average   $373.1(7.24%)
20 Day Moving Average   $366.66(9.12%)
To recent high   -13.4%
To recent low   22.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.18% (three month std-dev: 3.66%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_5_2010	411.23	366.66	373.1	383.4	386.57	388.71	400.1(5.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	101	60	113	63	0.34	47%	-0.28	29.2	3.66%	0	1.8	68	0
2	Mar_4_2010	412.38	363.39	371.28	375.82	380.42	384.93	379.3(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	120	56	33	0.24	44%	-0.25	12.9	3.62%	0	0.9	61	0
3	Mar_3_2010	413.42	363.39	371.57	371.94	375.2	384.42	384.4(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	175	200	200	99	0.25	44%	-0.19	9.1	3.62%	0	1.2	70	0
4	Mar_2_2010	414.19	363.24	370.8	367.08	366.09	375.91	381.3(2.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	169	180	193	98	0.3	44%	-0.2	4.8	3.66%	0	1	66	0
5	Mar_1_2010	415.02	362.68	370.54	361.54	360.15	365.99	371.9(2.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	140	100	156	92	0.21	44%	-0.18	-5.5	3.65%	0	0.5	71	0

6	Feb_26_2010	415.76	361.21	369.13	361.4	357.35	356.28	362.2(0.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-6	-50	-18	32	0.31	41%	-0.19	-13.4	3.7%	0	0.1	64	0
7	Feb_25_2010	416.57	361.05	368.94	366.3	362	354.31	359.9(-0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-93	-180	-127	11	0.48	41%	-0.12	-16.5	3.73%	0	-0.1	62	0
8	Feb_24_2010	417.09	361.56	367.42	371.22	370.03	358.43	360.1(1.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-156	-230	-201	-21	0.28	41%	-0.11	-23	3.75%	0	-0.1	45	0
9	Feb_23_2010	417.56	362.32	366.22	374.99	375.72	369.69	353.6(-4.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-166	-110	-211	-32	0.34	41%	-0.07	-34.2	3.74%	0	-0.5	41	0
10	Feb_22_2010	417.85	363.71	364.04	380.47	381.2	381.64	371.2(-4.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	22	10	11	53	0.31	43%	0.04	-38.9	3.73%	0	0.4	50	0

11	Feb_19_2010	417.7	363.76	360.47	377.51	380.17	381.76	386.7(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	81	50	84	70	0.39	37%	0.06	-59.8	4.01%	0	1.2	63	0
12	Feb_18_2010	417.44	364.17	355.26	371.83	371.62	380.76	384.5(1.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	86	170	97	53	0.26	37%	-0.02	-73.3	4.08%	0	1	56	0
13	Feb_17_2010	417.51	365.98	354.19	363.09	363.7	378.57	378.95(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	240	290	283	110	0.24	37%	-0.05	-73	4.08%	0	0.5	52	0
14	Feb_16_2010	417.7	369.03	354.61	356.32	353.29	362.49	381(6.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	202	160	242	83	0.38	41%	0.05	-66.6	4.08%	0	0.4	51	0
15	Feb_12_2010	417.51	371.5	353.35	345.42	345.29	348.83	356.4(-0.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	70	70	94	-4	0.39	35%	-0.06	-71.2	4.05%	0	-0.4	44	0

16	Feb_11_2010	417.77	375.92	351.94	340.86	341.44	344.09	358.3(5.13%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	45	60	72	-35	0.32	35%	-0.1	-68.4	4.12%	0	-0.5	47	0
17	Feb_10_2010	418.19	380.11	351.86	336.32	336.37	341.75	340.8(-1.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-22	110	1	-90	0.45	32%	-0.2	-68.5	4.06%	0	-1	37	0
18	Feb_9_2010	419.03	385.1	354.86	344.16	339.63	338.79	345.1(5.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-16	-60	9	-91	0.63	35%	-0.15	-63.4	4.06%	0	-1	33	0
19	Feb_8_2010	419.64	390.78	357.94	353.1	349.74	330.99	326.5(-2.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-212	-400	-220	-189	0.36	32%	-0.22	-53.7	4.07%	0	-1.5	25	0
20	Feb_5_2010	420.56	397.59	363.69	362.48	362.04	340.46	333.6(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-376	-420	-412	-266	0.72	35%	-0.21	-43.1	4.06%	0	-1.5	29	0

21	Feb_4_2010	421.43	403.76	368.02	364.03	370.77	368.49	335.6(-11.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-197	10	-196	-200	0.56	35%	-0.22	-39.3	4.11%	0	-1.6	28	0
22	Feb_3_2010	422.35	410.01	374.69	368.69	371.62	383.61	380(-2.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	115	250	175	-66	0.23	39%	-0.04	-33.5	3.85%	0	-0.8	35	0
23	Feb_2_2010	422.52	413.15	379.06	366.93	367.05	373.05	389.8(4.39%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	134	120	200	-64	0.34	39%	0.01	-32.7	3.86%	0	-0.6	38	0
24	Feb_1_2010	422.48	415.32	384.29	364.31	364.15	359.63	373.4(9.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-82	-90	-51	-175	0.34	36%	-0.01	-33	3.82%	0	-1.1	30	0
25	Jan_29_2010	422.53	416.85	390.46	366.13	367.94	361.06	341.36(-4.89%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-180	-120	-165	-224	0.46	32%		-33.8	3.84%	0	-2	17	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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