Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Nov. 17, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $479.9000 (-0.54%) ($470.0000 - $483.4000) on Tue. Nov. 17, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.31% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $479.9000(-0.54%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.155% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.155% (StdDev 4.31%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $466.62(2.85%)
10 Day Moving Average   $462.44(3.78%)
20 Day Moving Average   $462.12(3.85%)
To recent high   -8.7%
To recent low   61.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.2% (three month std-dev: 4.31%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -3.02%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0.96%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 4.3%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20091217

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_17_2009	376.37	462.12	462.44	466.62	464.46	476.65	479.9(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	157	170	170	117	0.17	56%	0.49	-31.9	4.31%	0	0.6	62	0
2	Nov_16_2009	374.53	463.54	458.02	465.82	464.93	461.75	482.5(6.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	104	-50	111	81	0.26	56%	0.53	-22.3	4.5%	0	0.6	52	0
3	Nov_13_2009	372.56	465.28	451.96	463.9	464.33	452.26	451.8(1.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-184	-180	-223	-66	0.23	54%	0.43	-14.6	4.46%	0	-0.4	49	0
4	Nov_12_2009	370.98	468.03	448.91	462.96	471.23	468.11	444.5(-6.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-66	10	-78	-29	0.33	54%	0.46	-6.3	4.47%	0	-0.7	43	0
5	Nov_11_2009	369.29	471.26	451.01	465.06	468.75	476.39	474.4(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	72	140	87	27	0.23	57%	0.55	4.9	4.4%	0	0.1	42	0

6	Nov_10_2009	367.28	471.44	446.6	457.08	460.51	474.35	475.9(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	165	230	207	40	0.2	57%	0.57	7.4	4.43%	0	0.1	43	0
7	Nov_9_2009	365.21	470.65	445.71	448.94	453.22	461.11	472.9(5.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	210	150	267	39	0.19	57%	0.43	8	4.43%	0	0.1	42	0
8	Nov_6_2009	363.64	470.08	444.35	438.64	439.42	446.66	447.1(-1.74%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	28	120	62	-76	0.19	55%	0.34	10.1	4.39%	0	-0.7	35	0
9	Nov_5_2009	362.42	470.16	448.17	432.84	433.41	445.33	455(4.72%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	107	200	160	-51	0.24	55%	0.35	16.8	4.39%	0	-0.4	40	0
10	Nov_4_2009	361.14	469.66	453.61	435.24	431.54	432.18	434.5(-0.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	61	-20	104	-70	0.39	54%	0.25	28	4.38%	0	-1	36	0

11	Nov_3_2009	360.23	468.99	461.21	434.6	434.21	421.49	435.2(3.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-167	-210	-166	-171	0.35	56%	0.19	29.1	4.38%	0	-0.9	44	0
12	Nov_2_2009	359.54	468.03	469.09	442.24	441.66	430.91	421.4(0.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-250	-170	-271	-188	0.37	56%	0.08	33.2	4.46%	0	-1.1	47	0
13	Oct_30_2009	359.27	466.74	479.6	450.86	454.01	446.93	418.1(-10.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-142	-90	-152	-113	0.5	56%	0.03	33.7	4.47%	0	-1	46	0
14	Oct_29_2009	359.17	464.53	489.24	465.24	465.43	452.41	467(8.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-175	-190	-201	-97	0.3	57%	0.23	37.8	4.26%	0	0	59	0
15	Oct_28_2009	358.34	459.76	493.68	475.22	478.05	461.1	431.3(-8.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-270	-230	-323	-111	0.34	55%	0.16	40.7	4.25%	0	-0.5	53	0

16	Oct_27_2009	357.77	458.24	499.38	491.7	492.68	478.44	473.4(1.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-232	-200	-292	-51	0.32	59%	0.3	49	4.13%	0	0.3	72	0
17	Oct_26_2009	356.7	454.63	498.67	500.2	504.08	495	464.5(-5.2%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-161	-100	-218	12	0.29	59%	0.28	51.3	4.13%	0	0.2	72	0
18	Oct_23_2009	355.72	451.54	499.04	512.48	512.63	506.93	490(-5.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-52	-80	-106	109	0.3	63%	0.33	56.7	4.08%	0	0.7	84	0
19	Oct_22_2009	354.56	446.25	494.96	516.38	516.11	513.15	516.9(0.62%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-1	-40	-58	168	0.26	66%	0.47	56	4.13%	0	1.2	94	0
20	Oct_21_2009	352.9	439.37	487.51	515.1	515.57	518.34	513.7(-0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	94	40	45	242	0.31	66%	0.34	54.7	4.15%	0	1.4	91	0

21	Oct_20_2009	351.7	433.4	477.61	508.16	509.1	519.06	515.9(-1.9%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	194	140	162	291	0.23	66%	0.35	51.8	4.16%	0	1.6	77	0
22	Oct_19_2009	350.49	428.26	466.74	496.78	498.53	512.8	525.9(3.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	298	210	288	329	0.29	66%	0.48	51.5	4.17%	0	2	77	0
23	Oct_16_2009	348.8	421.72	452.35	483.66	483.07	499.14	509.5(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	282	230	276	301	0.32	66%	0.5	51.5	4.16%	0	2.1	74	0
24	Oct_15_2009	347.08	416.51	437.28	470.32	471.51	484.26	510.5(6.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	307	200	314	287	0.44	69%	0.58	52.9	4.17%	0	2.5	77	0
25	Oct_14_2009	345.07	411.33	422.2	456.22	458.61	467.01	479(4.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	196	140	193	206	0.33	67%		57	4.27%	0	2.2	74	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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