Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Oct. 20, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $515.9000 (-1.9%) ($496.2000 - $532.2000) on Tue. Oct. 20, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.16% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $515.9000(-1.9%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 15.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.08% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.08% (StdDev 4.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -3.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $508.16(1.52%)
10 Day Moving Average   $477.61(8.02%)
20 Day Moving Average   $433.4(19.04%)
To recent high   -1.9%
To recent low   73.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 11.96% (three month std-dev: 4.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 2.17%(33%) Average negative next day return: -4.45%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 11.96%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -7.42%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 30.43%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.94%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20091120

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_20_2009	351.7	433.4	477.61	508.16	509.1	519.06	515.9(-1.9%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	194	140	162	291	0.23	66%	0.35	51.8	4.16%	0	1.6	77	NAN
2	Oct_19_2009	350.49	428.26	466.74	496.78	498.53	512.8	525.9(3.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	298	210	288	329	0.29	66%	0.48	51.5	4.17%	0	2	77	NAN
3	Oct_16_2009	348.8	421.72	452.35	483.66	483.07	499.14	509.5(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	282	230	276	301	0.32	66%	0.5	51.5	4.16%	0	2.1	74	NAN
4	Oct_15_2009	347.08	416.51	437.28	470.32	471.51	484.26	510.5(6.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	307	200	314	287	0.44	69%	0.58	52.9	4.17%	0	2.5	77	NAN
5	Oct_14_2009	345.07	411.33	422.2	456.22	458.61	467.01	479(4.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	196	140	193	206	0.33	67%	0.46	57	4.27%	0	2.2	74	NAN

6	Oct_13_2009	343.5	408.13	412.95	442.54	446.93	458.76	459(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	199	220	204	183	0.26	66%	0.34	61.8	4.27%	0	1.9	64	NAN
7	Oct_12_2009	342.32	404.75	406.32	431.78	433.85	450.21	460.3(3.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	269	280	295	190	0.23	66%	0.46	62.4	4.29%	0	2.2	56	NAN
8	Oct_9_2009	340.74	400.8	399.54	415.96	419.34	435.1	442.8(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	304	290	346	178	0.19	66%	0.42	61.7	4.3%	0	1.9	58	NAN
9	Oct_8_2009	339.32	397.47	393.09	398.78	401.92	417.49	440(7.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	267	290	315	121	0.35	66%	0.33	57.6	4.3%	0	2.1	54	NAN
10	Oct_7_2009	338.21	394.26	386.77	383.1	382.74	403.58	410.6(1.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	208	380	259	55	0.27	60%	0.25	54.3	4.24%	0	0.8	47	NAN

11	Oct_6_2009	337.38	391.87	385.24	379.16	375.58	386.35	405.2(6.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	236	170	296	56	0.27	60%	0.24	57.5	4.36%	0	0.7	44	NAN
12	Oct_5_2009	336.58	389.64	386.34	377.54	373.63	361.9	381.2(6.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-86	-250	-84	-93	0.22	58%	0.26	61.1	4.34%	0	-0.4	48	NAN
13	Oct_2_2009	335.71	387.53	388.56	381.04	380.38	364.8	356.9(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-277	-290	-311	-173	0.21	51%	0.13	52.9	4.31%	0	-1.3	45	NAN
14	Oct_1_2009	335.29	386.03	394.54	386.06	389.93	385.35	361.6(-7.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-119	-50	-132	-80	0.28	51%	0.15	44.5	4.52%	0	-0.9	49	NAN
15	Sep_30_2009	334.8	384.05	400.39	390.03	391.46	395.96	390.9(-1.56%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	16	90	21	-1	0.27	54%	0.14	35.8	4.41%	0	0.2	57	NAN

16	Sep_29_2009	334.34	380.61	403.65	391.75	390.41	394.52	397.1(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	60	55	35	0.17	54%	0.18	29.2	4.41%	0	0.5	65	NAN
17	Sep_28_2009	333.73	377.57	403.72	396.77	394.07	386.95	398.7(4.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-28	-150	-43	18	0.17	54%	0.09	27.9	4.43%	0	0.6	66	NAN
18	Sep_25_2009	333.43	375.26	402.68	397.91	401.27	386.3	382(0.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-161	-240	-206	-26	0.23	54%	0.16	28.7	4.42%	0	0.2	70	NAN
19	Sep_24_2009	332.89	374.02	402.86	404.57	405.67	401.19	381.43(-4.52%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-166	-70	-222	3	0.27	54%	0.13	38.1	4.47%	0	0.2	74	NAN
20	Sep_23_2009	332.46	372.99	403.08	411.94	412.46	416.24	399.5(-5.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	77	70	50	156	0.31	56%	0.28	49.9	4.42%	0	0.7	81	NAN

21	Sep_22_2009	331.52	370.69	399.68	416.96	414.49	410.16	422.2(4.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	72	-90	34	185	0.25	52%	0.31	62.6	4.36%	0	1.4	86	NAN
22	Sep_21_2009	330.48	367.77	393.44	411.76	412.9	408.68	404.4(-2.62%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-38	-60	-92	126	0.24	50%	0.36	73.6	4.73%	0	1.1	73	NAN
23	Sep_18_2009	329.31	365.2	386.64	408.02	411.17	418.83	415.3(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	118	150	93	191	0.19	50%	0.46	77.7	4.73%	0	1.5	67	NAN
24	Sep_17_2009	327.8	360.79	377.02	400.74	400.63	417.13	418.3(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	213	290	212	214	0.21	50%	0.44	72.7	4.73%	0	1.9	66	NAN
25	Sep_16_2009	326.38	355.8	366.45	392.82	391.19	403.51	424.6(7.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	268	210	286	213	0.26	50%		68.4	4.77%	0	2.4	65	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.