Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Jun. 29, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $298.1000 (3.61%) ($292.3000 - $305.5000) on Mon. Jun. 29, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.37% (three month average)
RSI   33
Latest Price   $298.1000(3.61%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -13.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    SPY(72%)    IWM(71%)    EEM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.185% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-10%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.185% (StdDev 6.37%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

Resistance Level   $338.1
5 Day Moving Average   $286.76(3.95%)
10 Day Moving Average   $301.02(-0.97%)
20 Day Moving Average   $338.1(-11.83%)
To recent high   -27%
To recent low   30.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.04%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.04% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 13.01% (three month std-dev: 6.37%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 2.31%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -4.68%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.78%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090729

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_29_2009	287.43	338.1	301.02	286.76	288.61	293.75	298.1(3.61%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	37	140	82	-98	0.52	50%	-0.36	-35.9	6.37%	0	-0.9	33	0
2	Jun_26_2009	288.47	342.92	307.28	281.34	282.84	287.6	287.7(-2.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-9	130	29	-124	0.5	50%	-0.32	-31.7	6.44%	0	-1.3	32	0
3	Jun_25_2009	289.4	346.74	317.44	287.28	282.08	283.48	294.5(5.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-41	-20	-12	-127	0.58	50%	-0.2	-24.2	6.44%	0	-1.3	33	0
4	Jun_24_2009	289.99	349.36	328.24	293.58	292.29	278.08	277.9(0.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-99	-350	-85	-141	0.54	50%	-0.24	-19.9	6.4%	0	-1.8	26	0
5	Jun_23_2009	290.68	351.67	338.98	303.7	303.95	280.69	275.6(1.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-259	-530	-279	-198	0.78	56%	-0.19	-16.3	6.44%	0	-2	34	0

6	Jun_22_2009	291.23	354.65	349.39	317.42	317.96	306.5	271(-14.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-222	-250	-242	-163	0.71	56%	-0.25	-7.4	7.05%	0	-2.5	27	0
7	Jun_19_2009	291.97	357.12	359.83	336.54	336.45	327.21	317.4(-2.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-75	-190	-74	-79	0.59	57%	-0.13	10.7	6.95%	0	-1.3	33	0
8	Jun_18_2009	292.34	356.93	365.36	352.12	346.99	329.41	326(-0.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-176	-400	-198	-109	0.4	57%	-0.25	23	6.96%	0	-1	46	0
9	Jun_17_2009	293.06	357.5	370.68	368.56	362.87	345.69	328.5(-4.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-187	-380	-219	-89	0.63	59%	-0.14	41.5	6.97%	0	-0.9	52	0
10	Jun_16_2009	293.47	357.87	373.79	379.68	380.25	364.56	344.2(-6.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-115	-280	-141	-35	0.51	59%	-0.09	50.5	7.03%	0	-0.4	62	0

11	Jun_15_2009	293.72	357.19	379.02	385.84	386.33	380.05	366.6(-7.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-91	-110	-121	-2	0.57	59%	0.05	54.3	6.97%	0	0.3	62	0
12	Jun_12_2009	293.58	353.91	381.89	385.96	388.02	395.93	395.3(-3.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	69	160	61	93	0.52	63%	0.23	40.7	6.91%	0	1.2	71	0
13	Jun_11_2009	292.91	349.87	378.29	380.52	380.36	392.6	408.2(6.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	124	220	123	125	0.61	63%	0.18	35.2	6.94%	0	1.7	75	0
14	Jun_10_2009	292.38	345.01	371.45	373.9	373.93	380.11	384.1(2.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	109	120	107	114	0.6	66%	0.28	28	6.93%	0	1.3	62	0
15	Jun_9_2009	291.55	342.82	364.62	367.6	370.26	368.13	375(2.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	-20	13	64	0.45	66%	0.3	29.4	7.1%	0	1.1	61	0

16	Jun_8_2009	290.69	340.76	359.71	371.62	367.13	367.75	367.2(-0.24%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-42	-20	-69	39	0.48	66%	0.06	37.7	7.1%	0	0.9	61	0
17	Jun_5_2009	290.53	340.57	353.94	377.28	374.66	372.4	368.1(-1.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	48	-60	33	94	0.52	62%	0.1	57.1	7.1%	0	1	67	0
18	Jun_4_2009	290.25	338.48	347.77	375.4	377.09	366.5	375.1(6.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-23	-180	-49	56	0.5	64%	0.16	67.9	7.34%	0	1.3	62	0
19	Jun_3_2009	289.79	336.49	343.2	368.32	372.86	376.93	352.6(-10.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-11	110	-33	57	0.47	64%	-0.09	74.9	7.45%	0	0.6	60	0
20	Jun_2_2009	290.06	334.27	340.9	360.08	364.64	387.68	395.1(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	195	480	212	142	0.4	61%	0.13	74	7.29%	0	2.2	59	0

21	Jun_1_2009	289.68	330.23	333.44	345.7	347.27	368.8	395.5(10.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	231	450	262	137	0.51	61%	0	81.4	7.78%	0	2.8	60	0
22	May_29_2009	289.68	324.81	323.1	327.66	328.25	341.6	358.7(5.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	128	290	153	54	0.44	59%	-0.29	75.4	7.76%	0	1.7	47	0
23	May_28_2009	290.51	320.31	318.43	316.6	317.48	325.74	339.7(9.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	71	190	91	12	0.55	59%	-0.29	57	7.8%	0	0.9	54	0
24	May_27_2009	291.35	317.41	315.67	314.96	312.33	314.9	311.4(-3.65%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	5	30	15	-27	0.41	58%	-0.59	61	7.79%	0	-0.3	46	0
25	May_26_2009	293.09	315.17	318.82	318.64	317.03	309.21	323.2(5.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-26	-190	-24	-30	0.41	58%		61	7.85%	0	0.3	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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