Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. May. 29, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $358.7000 (5.59%) ($343.0000 - $360.0000) on Fri. May. 29, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   7.76% (three month average)
RSI   47
Latest Price   $358.7000(5.59%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 3.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    SPY(72%)    IWM(71%)    EEM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.88% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-10%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.88% (StdDev 7.76%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $327.66(9.47%)
10 Day Moving Average   $323.1(11.02%)
20 Day Moving Average   $324.81(10.43%)
To recent high   -3%
To recent low   105.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.06%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.06% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.09% (three month std-dev: 7.76%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -4.34%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 5.47%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -3.15%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 6.35%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090629

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_29_2009	289.68	324.81	323.1	327.66	328.25	341.6	358.7(5.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	128	290	153	54	0.44	59%	-0.29	75.4	7.76%	0	1.7	47	NAN
2	May_28_2009	290.51	320.31	318.43	316.6	317.48	325.74	339.7(9.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	71	190	91	12	0.55	59%	-0.29	57	7.8%	0	0.9	54	NAN
3	May_27_2009	291.35	317.41	315.67	314.96	312.33	314.9	311.4(-3.65%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	5	30	15	-27	0.41	58%	-0.59	61	7.79%	0	-0.3	46	NAN
4	May_26_2009	293.09	315.17	318.82	318.64	317.03	309.21	323.2(5.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-26	-190	-24	-30	0.41	58%	-1.03	61	7.85%	0	0.3	56	NAN
5	May_22_2009	296.15	312.08	319.99	319.18	322.33	309.75	305.3(0.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-89	-240	-100	-56	0.42	57%	0.03	59.1	7.98%	0	-0.2	50	NAN

6	May_21_2009	296.06	310.55	326.13	317.34	324.1	324.85	303.4(-8.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-51	80	-59	-26	0.6	57%	-0.3	53.6	8.04%	0	-0.2	56	NAN
7	May_20_2009	296.95	308.29	328.9	319.8	322.71	334.9	331.5(0.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	91	290	103	55	0.53	59%	-0.16	50	8.02%	0	0.7	66	NAN
8	May_19_2009	297.43	303.91	329.62	316.36	315.24	323.35	329.8(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	76	170	83	55	0.36	59%	-0.09	42.8	8.08%	0	0.7	62	NAN
9	May_18_2009	297.7	299.92	327.58	319.46	313.69	310.52	325.9(10.06%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	5	-120	-5	35	0.33	59%	-0.04	41.9	8.08%	0	0.7	65	NAN
10	May_15_2009	297.83	295.47	327.09	321.74	320.29	307.14	296.1(-6.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-75	-300	-104	14	0.41	53%	-0.01	40.7	8.26%	0	0	62	NAN

11	May_14_2009	297.85	294.26	327.28	336.46	329.83	316.85	315.7(0.45%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-103	-330	-145	25	0.35	53%	-0.02	52.4	8.29%	0	0.6	62	NAN
12	May_13_2009	297.91	291.66	323.1	339	341.8	333.44	314.3(-8.98%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-43	-150	-78	63	0.48	53%	-0.02	56.4	8.36%	0	0.6	65	NAN
13	May_12_2009	297.96	289.06	320.15	344.14	346.93	342.8	345.3(2.37%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	7	-60	-27	107	0.39	55%	0.06	63.8	8.27%	0	1.5	73	NAN
14	May_11_2009	297.77	284.64	311.88	336.5	343.66	350.17	337.3(-8.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	52	200	27	125	0.39	55%	-0.05	60.5	8.27%	0	1.4	69	NAN
15	May_8_2009	297.93	280.72	303.97	333.02	335.46	351.05	369.7(12.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	152	350	143	179	0.55	54%	0.06	57.7	8.26%	0	2.5	77	NAN

16	May_7_2009	297.74	275.35	293.46	317.2	322.53	337.16	328.4(-3.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	172	370	173	170	0.52	52%	-0.35	55.5	8.18%	0	1.9	61	NAN
17	May_6_2009	298.79	271.38	285.73	304.84	306.75	319.88	340(10.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	134	320	134	134	0.48	52%	-0.36	49.1	8.23%	0	2.7	64	NAN
18	May_5_2009	299.86	266.38	275.45	292.78	292.65	307.89	307.1(-4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	123	360	127	109	0.39	49%	-0.35	48.1	8.14%	0	2	61	NAN
19	May_4_2009	300.91	264.17	269.37	283.36	284.28	293.63	319.9(10.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	144	240	157	103	0.39	49%	-0.3	47.9	8.19%	0	3	64	NAN
20	May_1_2009	301.81	261.83	260.42	270.64	271.66	277.41	290.6(9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	39	160	42	30	0.4	47%	-0.45	44.2	8%	0	2.1	58	NAN

21	Apr_30_2009	303.17	260.47	257.86	266.44	265.66	274.93	266.6(-4.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	58	240	66	32	0.42	45%	-0.54	34.5	7.98%	0	0.5	49	NAN
22	Apr_29_2009	304.83	259.32	257.37	263.42	263.78	265.91	279.7(7.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	81	60	94	41	0.4	45%	-0.3	15	7.97%	0	1.6	59	NAN
23	Apr_28_2009	305.76	256.81	255.31	255.4	256.73	256.39	260(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-16	10	-17	-12	0.35	45%	-0.37	-16.5	8.02%	0	0.2	57	NAN
24	Apr_27_2009	306.89	255.66	255.29	252.92	253.28	261.65	256.3(-4.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	41	240	51	10	0.38	45%	-0.23	-37	8.08%	0	0	48	NAN
25	Apr_24_2009	307.6	255.85	255.9	248.3	248.41	257.06	269.6(7.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	77	250	97	16	0.48	45%		-37.9	8.02%	0	1	47	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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