Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. May. 1, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $290.6000 (9%) ($265.2000 - $296.2000) on Fri. May. 1, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   8% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $290.6000(9%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(89%)    SPY(72%)    IWM(71%)    EEM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -4% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-10%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -4% (StdDev 8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 7.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $270.64(7.38%)
10 Day Moving Average   $260.42(11.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $261.83(10.99%)
To recent high   -27.5%
To recent low   66.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.06%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.06% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.29% (three month std-dev: 8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.08%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -1.48%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.01%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090601

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_1_2009	301.81	261.83	260.42	270.64	271.66	277.41	290.6(9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	39	160	42	30	0.4	47%	-0.45	44.2	8%	0	2.1	58	NAN
2	Apr_30_2009	303.17	260.47	257.86	266.44	265.66	274.93	266.6(-4.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	58	240	66	32	0.42	45%	-0.54	34.5	7.98%	0	0.5	49	NAN
3	Apr_29_2009	304.83	259.32	257.37	263.42	263.78	265.91	279.7(7.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	81	60	94	41	0.4	45%	-0.3	15	7.97%	0	1.6	59	NAN
4	Apr_28_2009	305.76	256.81	255.31	255.4	256.73	256.39	260(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-16	10	-17	-12	0.35	45%	-0.37	-16.5	8.02%	0	0.2	57	NAN
5	Apr_27_2009	306.89	255.66	255.29	252.92	253.28	261.65	256.3(-4.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	41	240	51	10	0.38	45%	-0.23	-37	8.08%	0	0	48	NAN

6	Apr_24_2009	307.6	255.85	255.9	248.3	248.41	257.06	269.6(7.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	77	250	97	16	0.48	45%	-0.14	-37.9	8.02%	0	1	47	NAN
7	Apr_23_2009	308.03	256.32	255.82	248.34	242.66	244.91	251.5(4.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	4	-0	11	-18	0.35	45%	-0.46	-30.8	8.03%	0	-0.3	47	NAN
8	Apr_22_2009	309.44	257.42	256.06	250.72	247.68	239.75	239.6(-3.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-27	-260	-27	-27	0.41	45%	-0.46	-19.9	8.05%	0	-1.1	53	NAN
9	Apr_21_2009	310.87	259.07	256.97	255.28	252.71	240.41	247.6(6.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-100	-370	-116	-51	0.41	49%	-0.32	-4.8	8.09%	0	-0.7	59	NAN
10	Apr_20_2009	311.88	261.06	259.02	257.94	257.98	255.61	233.2(-13.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-64	-60	-77	-23	0.39	46%	-0.86	18	8.35%	0	-1.7	54	NAN

11	Apr_17_2009	314.59	261.43	263.95	263.96	262.26	265.01	269.8(2.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	35	50	34	36	0.31	49%	-0.15	33.6	8.36%	0	0.5	53	NAN
12	Apr_16_2009	315.07	261.13	263.59	264.4	260.44	260.35	263.4(0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	4	-50	-1	19	0.41	49%	-0.85	47.2	8.42%	0	0.1	46	NAN
13	Apr_15_2009	317.76	260.6	261.71	262.32	262.58	259.5	262.4(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	7	-80	5	11	0.39	49%	-0.59	57.4	8.43%	0	0.1	48	NAN
14	Apr_14_2009	319.63	259.82	258.65	258.94	260.28	260.54	260.9(-0.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-19	20	-20	-15	0.42	49%	-0.53	61.4	8.44%	0	0.1	48	NAN
15	Apr_13_2009	321.33	258.12	256.26	260.38	256.99	265.66	263.3(-3.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	15	200	23	-9	0.41	49%	-0.16	68.9	8.59%	0	0.3	45	NAN

16	Apr_9_2009	321.84	256.03	255.87	264.02	258.83	260.01	272(7.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	55	-30	66	20	0.37	49%	-0.45	75.8	8.63%	0	0.8	60	NAN
17	Apr_8_2009	323.28	253.64	256.53	263.08	259.45	248.33	253(3.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-61	-340	-70	-32	0.38	49%	-0.75	79.3	8.66%	0	-0	51	NAN
18	Apr_7_2009	325.73	251.49	258.58	260.96	264.76	257.64	245.5(-8.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-48	-140	-56	-24	0.41	49%	-0.64	72.6	8.66%	0	-0.2	52	NAN
19	Apr_6_2009	327.82	249.92	261.27	257.58	260.27	270.58	268.1(-4.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	310	25	10	0.39	49%	-0.63	65.7	8.73%	0	0.6	57	NAN
20	Apr_3_2009	329.9	245.94	263.01	250.96	252.44	271.89	281.5(5.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	140	560	163	71	0.47	49%	-0.79	54.7	8.67%	0	1.1	64	NAN

21	Apr_2_2009	332.54	240.98	258.4	246.84	242.96	249.96	267.3(10.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	87	150	101	44	0.6	52%	-0.46	41.7	8.71%	0	0.8	64	NAN
22	Apr_1_2009	334.06	236.53	258.02	250.06	241.08	233	242.4(6.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-53	-340	-68	-8	0.45	50%	-0.84	35.1	8.82%	0	0.2	59	NAN
23	Mar_31_2009	336.9	234.69	259.24	256.54	254.5	235.96	228.6(-2.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-85	-530	-112	-3	0.43	50%	-1.01	33.3	8.85%	0	-0.2	61	NAN
24	Mar_30_2009	340.33	232.57	261.43	265.24	263.43	249.15	235(-9.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-135	-400	-178	-4	0.43	50%	-0.93	30	8.86%	0	0.1	61	NAN
25	Mar_27_2009	343.51	229.99	260.96	276.06	273.57	273.04	260.9(-7.94%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	1	-40	-29	90	0.49	52%		33.8	8.77%	0	0.8	72	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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