Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Feb. 5, 2016

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $90.9900 (4.57%) ($87.3800 - $91.0000) on Fri. Feb. 5, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.5% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $90.9900(4.57%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL advances 2.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(64%)    IVW(63%)    IWF(63%)    IWD(61%)    IVE(60%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.75% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-15%)    VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-12%)    IPO(-5%)    SHY(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.75% (StdDev 1.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 4.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $86.99(4.6%)
10 Day Moving Average   $85.46(6.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $84.53(7.64%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   10.9%
Market Cap   $32.755b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 2.34% (three month std-dev: 1.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -2.43%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -0.88%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.72%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_5_2016	84.43	84.53	85.46	86.99	86.58	87.87	90.99(4.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	104	90	97	124	4.46	59%	0.15	15.4	1.5%	0	3.3	72	INF
2	Feb_4_2016	84.3	84.11	84.86	85.84	85.58	86.1	87.01(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	59	30	50	87	3.18	54%	0.11	-20.5	1.4%	0	2.2	57	INF
3	Feb_3_2016	84.21	83.99	84.48	85.18	85.11	85.28	86.46(1.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	42	10	34	64	2.36	54%	0.11	-56.2	1.4%	0	2.1	59	INF
4	Feb_2_2016	84.12	84.04	84.11	84.36	84.55	85.05	85.02(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	23	50	20	30	1.53	61%	0.11	-67.1	1.38%	0	0.7	52	INF
5	Feb_1_2016	84.03	84.12	83.99	84.08	84.06	84.93	85.46(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	35	70	36	30	2.17	61%	0.12	-71.3	1.72%	0	0.9	57	INF

6	Jan_29_2016	83.93	84.22	83.68	83.68	83.77	84.05	85.25(1.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	23	30	26	15	2.07	58%	0.11	-82.7	1.74%	0	0.7	57	INF
7	Jan_28_2016	83.84	84.38	83.56	83.77	83.64	83.18	83.69(1.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-10	-40	-15	4	1.78	56%	0.1	-69.9	1.73%	0	-0.4	52	INF
8	Jan_27_2016	83.76	84.65	83.5	83.69	84.06	83.49	82.4(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-17	-30	-20	-7	2.43	56%	0.06	-58.9	1.72%	0	-1.1	42	INF
9	Jan_26_2016	83.71	84.95	83.69	83.8	84.12	84.1	83.59(0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-10	10	-9	-14	2.09	56%	-0.01	-50.4	1.72%	0	-0.6	37	INF
10	Jan_25_2016	83.72	85.2	83.63	83.85	83.74	84.62	83.47(-2.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	10	70	19	-18	2.12	56%	0.08	-48.6	1.72%	0	-0.7	40	INF

11	Jan_22_2016	83.65	85.49	83.57	83.63	83.6	84.14	85.69(2.87%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	33	40	54	-30	1.4	60%	0.07	-50.5	1.68%	0	0.1	42	INF
12	Jan_21_2016	83.59	85.62	83.31	83.35	82.92	82.86	83.3(0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-27	-20	-8	-85	1.84	57%	0.06	-49.2	1.66%	0	-0.9	32	INF
13	Jan_20_2016	83.54	85.87	83.47	83.31	83.08	83.06	82.93(-1.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-31	-10	-7	-103	2.36	57%	0.07	-44	1.66%	0	-1.1	29	INF
14	Jan_19_2016	83.48	86.1	83.94	83.57	83.39	82.97	83.88(1.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-27	-40	-2	-100	2.12	57%	0.1	-37.2	1.65%	0	-0.8	35	INF
15	Jan_15_2016	83.4	86.36	84.25	83.37	83.44	83.11	82.35(-2.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-50	-30	-25	-123	2.15	54%	0.02	-36.9	1.63%	0	-1.6	28	INF

16	Jan_14_2016	83.38	86.72	84.8	83.46	83.55	83.81	84.28(1.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-25	30	6	-116	2	58%	0.07	-32.4	1.61%	0	-1	30	INF
17	Jan_13_2016	83.32	86.89	85.25	83.27	83.44	83.77	83.1(-1.34%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-24	30	9	-121	1.63	55%	0.1	-34.3	1.6%	0	-1.6	29	INF
18	Jan_12_2016	83.24	87.04	85.86	83.67	83.4	83.3	84.23(1.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-42	-20	-16	-118	1.45	55%	0.1	-35.1	1.61%	0	-1.2	34	INF
19	Jan_11_2016	83.16	87.09	86.3	84.43	83.97	83.11	82.88(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-63	-90	-47	-111	1.97	53%	0.04	-29.2	1.6%	0	-1.9	33	INF
20	Jan_8_2016	83.13	87.31	86.91	85.29	85.15	83.51	82.82(-0.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-81	-140	-73	-104	1.74	53%	0	-12.9	1.6%	0	-2.2	28	INF

21	Jan_7_2016	83.13	87.52	87.6	86.34	86.02	84.82	83.33(-2.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-99	-110	-101	-92	2.14	53%	0	7.5	1.6%	0	-2.4	29	INF
22	Jan_6_2016	83.13	87.73	88.17	87.48	87.23	86.8	85.09(-3.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-40	-40	-41	-38	2.76	57%	0.02	38	1.58%	0	-1.8	44	INF
23	Jan_5_2016	83.11	87.84	88.52	88.34	88.04	87.22	88.01(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-19	-80	-25	-0	1.51	66%	0.06	70.2	1.52%	0	0.1	63	INF
24	Jan_4_2016	83.06	87.73	88.48	88.47	88.47	87.67	87.21(-0.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-37	-60	-51	5	1.72	66%	-0.11	72.7	1.54%	0	-0.4	64	INF
25	Dec_31_2015	83.15	87.58	88.69	88.79	88.87	88.86	88.06(-1.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-6	0	-19	35	0.86	66%		62	1.54%	0	0.3	55	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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