Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Mar. 20, 2015

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $83.5300 (2.28%) ($81.8800 - $83.6500) on Fri. Mar. 20, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.48% (three month average)
RSI   48
Latest Price   $83.5300(2.28%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL declines -0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(64%)    IVE(61%)    VT(60%)    QQQ(59%)    XLY(58%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.74% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-13%)    UUP(-12%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.74% (StdDev 1.48%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $81.78(2.14%)
10 Day Moving Average   $81.55(2.43%)
20 Day Moving Average   $81.98(1.89%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   18.7%
Market Cap   $30.07b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 1.06% (three month std-dev: 1.48%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 1.29%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -1.13%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.95%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150420

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_20_2015	77.25	81.98	81.55	81.78	81.58	82.13	83.53(2.28%)	RB	SmallLong	20	2	35	40	47	-3	1.76	64%	0.1	0.9	1.48%	0	1.8	48	INF
2	Mar_19_2015	77.17	81.89	81.39	81.18	81.11	81.33	81.67(-0.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	3	20	15	-35	1.06	62%	0.09	-15	1.47%	0	-0.3	45	INF
3	Mar_18_2015	77.1	81.87	81.52	81.09	80.95	81.04	81.74(1.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-2	0	10	-36	1.45	64%	0.08	-14	1.47%	0	-0.2	47	INF
4	Mar_17_2015	77.04	81.86	81.56	80.84	80.89	80.9	80.82(-0.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-11	0	1	-45	1.11	66%	0.06	-15	1.49%	0	-1.3	46	INF
5	Mar_16_2015	76.99	81.91	81.77	80.93	80.84	80.87	81.15(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-18	-0	-10	-43	1.2	67%	0.08	1	1.5%	0	-0.9	48	INF

6	Mar_13_2015	76.93	81.98	81.98	81.28	81.03	80.89	80.53(-0.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-17	-20	-12	-30	1.25	65%	0.07	29.6	1.5%	0	-1.8	43	INF
7	Mar_12_2015	76.88	82.01	82.21	81.62	81.46	80.82	81.22(0.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-25	-60	-26	-22	1.5	63%	0.08	58.5	1.5%	0	-1	48	INF
8	Mar_11_2015	76.82	82.01	82.33	82.02	81.83	81.18	80.5(-0.95%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-40	-60	-48	-15	2.04	63%	0.08	111.9	1.51%	0	-1.8	50	INF
9	Mar_10_2015	76.76	81.98	82.49	82.37	82.4	82.11	81.27(-1.94%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.3	-15	-20	-22	6	1.84	60%	0.09	155.1	1.51%	0	-0.8	51	INF
10	Mar_9_2015	76.69	81.9	82.56	82.69	82.59	82.49	82.88(0.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-3	-10	-10	20	1.58	64%	0.12	177.8	1.5%	0	1	57	INF

11	Mar_6_2015	76.6	81.74	82.49	82.8	82.68	82.49	82.23(-1.19%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	4	-0	-3	25	2.45	63%	0.12	207.4	1.49%	0	0.4	48	INF
12	Mar_5_2015	76.51	81.57	82.46	82.89	82.78	82.69	83.22(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10	6	36	1.88	63%	0.13	203.1	1.49%	0	1.3	64	INF
13	Mar_4_2015	76.41	81.07	82.25	82.7	82.67	82.67	82.23(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	6	-0	-3	31	2.13	63%	0.12	119.4	1.49%	0	0.5	64	INF
14	Mar_3_2015	76.32	80.64	82.18	82.63	82.55	82.87	82.91(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	22	20	15	44	1.26	64%	0.14	97.5	1.48%	0	0.8	70	INF
15	Mar_2_2015	76.21	80.11	82.06	82.4	82.29	82.68	83.4(0.88%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	31	30	24	53	1.78	64%	0.16	80.6	1.48%	0	1	76	INF

16	Feb_27_2015	76.09	79.5	81.95	82.15	82.04	82.23	82.67(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	27	10	17	57	1.76	64%	0.14	65.9	1.48%	0	0.8	73	INF
17	Feb_26_2015	75.98	78.99	81.77	81.97	81.9	81.91	82.28(0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	22	-0	9	62	1.8	64%	0.13	57.8	1.49%	0	0.8	77	INF
18	Feb_25_2015	75.88	78.41	81.59	81.73	81.72	81.86	81.88(0.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	25	10	3	89	1.5	64%	0.15	49.2	1.5%	0	0.8	88	INF
19	Feb_24_2015	75.77	77.92	81.42	81.73	81.58	81.89	81.77(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	40	20	12	124	1.17	64%	0.13	45	1.52%	0	0.9	86	INF
20	Feb_23_2015	75.67	77.48	81.2	81.66	81.49	81.59	82.14(0.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	48	0	10	162	1.52	64%	0.16	44	1.53%	0	1	89	INF

21	Feb_20_2015	75.55	77.04	80.94	81.73	81.46	81.27	81.8(0.89%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0	48	-30	-4	204	1.23	64%	0.15	45.8	1.54%	0	1.1	90	INF
22	Feb_19_2015	75.44	76.69	80.62	81.55	81.6	81.39	81.08(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	57	-20	-3	235	1.19	64%	0.15	47.7	1.55%	0	1	80	INF
23	Feb_18_2015	75.33	76.32	79.84	81.41	81.45	81.64	81.5(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	67	20	5	251	1.28	64%	0.15	47.6	1.56%	0	1.2	84	INF
24	Feb_17_2015	75.22	75.95	79.02	81.11	81.13	81.81	81.78(-0.86%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	92	60	34	264	2.05	64%	0.17	48.4	1.58%	0	1.5	77	INF
25	Feb_13_2015	75.09	75.54	78.06	80.65	80.67	81.25	82.49(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	100	50	47	258	3.7	64%		47.6	1.59%	0	1.8	74	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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