Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Feb. 11, 2015

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $80.3600 (0.44%) ($79.7900 - $80.8100) on Wed. Feb. 11, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.6% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $80.3600(0.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL advances 5.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(64%)    IVE(61%)    VT(60%)    QQQ(58%)    XLY(58%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.8% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-13%)    UUP(-12%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.8% (StdDev 1.6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $79.56(1.01%)
10 Day Moving Average   $75.98(5.76%)
20 Day Moving Average   $74.7(7.58%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   14.1%
Market Cap   $28.928b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 4.18% (three month std-dev: 1.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 10 Average positive next day return: 2.3%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.02%(50%) Sample size 10 Average positive next three day return: 2.6%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -1.64%(60%) Sample size 10 Average positive next weekly return: 1.47%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.45%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150311

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_11_2015	74.83	74.7	75.98	79.56	79.69	80.1	80.36(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	98	40	59	213	1.77	62%	0.16	45.5	1.6%	0	1.8	61	INF
2	Feb_10_2015	74.71	74.38	74.98	77.99	78.77	79.58	80.01(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	89	100	66	157	2.4	62%	0.15	35.9	1.61%	0	2	64	INF
3	Feb_9_2015	74.6	74.06	74.12	76.56	76.98	79.28	79.46(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.2	101	230	96	116	2.67	62%	0.13	23.7	1.63%	0	2.2	61	INF
4	Feb_6_2015	74.5	73.79	73.41	75.03	75.3	77.96	79.55(1.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	148	260	166	95	5.21	62%	0.15	6.1	1.65%	0	2.6	61	INF
5	Feb_5_2015	74.39	73.54	72.74	73.24	73.27	74.67	78.4(8.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.9	87	130	108	22	6.22	62%	0.12	-22.2	1.65%	0	2.7	61	INF

6	Feb_4_2015	74.3	73.31	72.32	71.96	71.89	72.65	72.55(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	27	70	53	-53	2.39	53%	-0.05	-61.9	1.16%	0	-0.5	44	INF
7	Feb_3_2015	74.34	73.38	72.45	71.53	71.55	71.86	72.84(1.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	15	30	45	-77	2.16	53%	-0.05	-80.9	1.17%	0	-0.4	43	INF
8	Feb_2_2015	74.38	73.47	72.59	71.31	71.21	71.14	71.83(1.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-36	-10	-11	-109	3.29	51%	-0.08	-93.8	1.16%	0	-1.1	40	INF
9	Jan_30_2015	74.44	73.66	72.82	71.51	71.31	71.23	70.59(-1.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-53	-20	-31	-117	2.36	48%	-0.12	-96.4	1.14%	0	-2.1	32	INF
10	Jan_29_2015	74.53	73.94	73.16	72.14	71.81	71.28	71.97(2.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-57	-70	-39	-110	2.65	52%	-0.08	-101.7	1.12%	0	-1.5	34	INF

11	Jan_28_2015	74.59	74.2	73.38	72.76	72.53	71.39	70.4(-1.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-94	-120	-88	-111	2.64	47%	-0.15	-85.1	1.07%	0	-2.9	33	INF
12	Jan_27_2015	74.7	74.56	73.82	73.48	73.4	72.35	71.75(-1.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-90	-100	-93	-82	3.38	51%	-0.11	-75.3	1.04%	0	-2.4	40	INF
13	Jan_26_2015	74.78	74.84	74.09	74.04	73.92	73.67	72.86(-1.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-53	-30	-55	-46	2.36	55%	-0.07	-57.6	1.03%	0	-1.8	41	INF
14	Jan_23_2015	74.83	75.07	74.3	74.04	74.27	74.45	73.7(-1.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	10	20	17	-11	3.11	58%	-0.04	-35.8	1.02%	0	-1.2	40	INF
15	Jan_22_2015	74.86	75.26	74.47	74.31	74.15	74.18	75.11(1.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	8	-0	16	-18	2.25	63%	0	-19.1	0.99%	0	-0.1	42	INF

16	Jan_21_2015	74.86	75.31	74.38	74.11	74.15	74.1	73.98(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-18	10	-4	-58	1.97	60%	-0.03	-8.2	0.97%	0	-1	30	INF
17	Jan_20_2015	74.88	75.43	74.39	74.22	73.95	74.12	74.53(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-5	10	17	-71	1.55	60%	-0.01	4.9	0.97%	0	-0.7	30	INF
18	Jan_16_2015	74.89	75.43	74.4	74.17	73.99	73.79	74.22(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-32	-30	-8	-103	1.65	60%	-0.03	10.2	0.99%	0	-1	28	INF
19	Jan_15_2015	74.91	75.5	74.53	74.3	74.16	73.78	73.71(-0.55%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-60	-40	-39	-123	1.54	60%	-0.05	15.1	1%	0	-1.4	24	INF
20	Jan_14_2015	74.95	75.49	74.77	74.64	74.48	74.19	74.12(-0.54%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-50	-30	-28	-116	1.32	60%	-0.04	17.1	1.01%	0	-1.1	24	INF

21	Jan_13_2015	74.98	75.42	75.06	74.68	74.81	74.54	74.52(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-30	-20	-7	-99	1.45	60%	-0.03	10.4	1.02%	0	-0.7	42	INF
22	Jan_12_2015	75	75.42	75.33	74.58	74.72	74.78	74.26(-0.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-37	10	-16	-100	1.95	60%	-0.03	2.9	1.03%	0	-0.7	40	INF
23	Jan_9_2015	75.02	75.36	75.65	74.66	74.7	75.08	74.9(-0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-5	40	18	-73	1.16	60%	-0.01	3.2	1.04%	0	-0.3	46	INF
24	Jan_8_2015	75.03	75.3	75.89	74.8	74.64	74.67	75.4(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-8	-0	6	-50	1.48	60%	0.03	2.7	1.05%	0	0.1	60	INF
25	Jan_7_2015	75.01	75.27	76.11	74.96	74.88	74.32	74.33(0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-44	-60	-47	-34	1.59	56%		6.2	1.03%	0	-0.5	62	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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