Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Feb. 4, 2015

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $72.5500 (-0.4%) ($72.4200 - $73.4000) on Wed. Feb. 4, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.16% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $72.5500(-0.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL declines -1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(64%)    IVE(61%)    VT(60%)    QQQ(59%)    XLY(58%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.58% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-13%)    UUP(-12%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.58% (StdDev 1.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $68.81(-5.16%)
Resistance Level   $73.31
5 Day Moving Average   $71.96(0.82%)
10 Day Moving Average   $72.32(0.32%)
20 Day Moving Average   $73.31(-1.04%)
To recent high   -6.7%
To recent low   3.1%
Market Cap   $26.117b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 1.94% (three month std-dev: 1.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.42%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.58%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 2.64%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -2.66%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 1.05%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.66%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_4_2015	74.3	73.31	72.32	71.96	71.89	72.65	72.55(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	27	70	53	-53	2.39	53%	-0.05	-61.9	1.16%	0	-0.5	44	INF
2	Feb_3_2015	74.34	73.38	72.45	71.53	71.55	71.86	72.84(1.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	15	30	45	-77	2.16	53%	-0.05	-80.9	1.17%	0	-0.4	43	INF
3	Feb_2_2015	74.38	73.47	72.59	71.31	71.21	71.14	71.83(1.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-36	-10	-11	-109	3.29	51%	-0.08	-93.8	1.16%	0	-1.1	40	INF
4	Jan_30_2015	74.44	73.66	72.82	71.51	71.31	71.23	70.59(-1.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-53	-20	-31	-117	2.36	48%	-0.12	-96.4	1.14%	0	-2.1	32	INF
5	Jan_29_2015	74.53	73.94	73.16	72.14	71.81	71.28	71.97(2.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-57	-70	-39	-110	2.65	52%	-0.08	-101.7	1.12%	0	-1.5	34	INF

6	Jan_28_2015	74.59	74.2	73.38	72.76	72.53	71.39	70.4(-1.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-94	-120	-88	-111	2.64	47%	-0.15	-85.1	1.07%	0	-2.9	33	INF
7	Jan_27_2015	74.7	74.56	73.82	73.48	73.4	72.35	71.75(-1.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-90	-100	-93	-82	3.38	51%	-0.11	-75.3	1.04%	0	-2.4	40	INF
8	Jan_26_2015	74.78	74.84	74.09	74.04	73.92	73.67	72.86(-1.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-53	-30	-55	-46	2.36	55%	-0.07	-57.6	1.03%	0	-1.8	41	INF
9	Jan_23_2015	74.83	75.07	74.3	74.04	74.27	74.45	73.7(-1.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	10	20	17	-11	3.11	58%	-0.04	-35.8	1.02%	0	-1.2	40	INF
10	Jan_22_2015	74.86	75.26	74.47	74.31	74.15	74.18	75.11(1.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	8	-0	16	-18	2.25	63%	0	-19.1	0.99%	0	-0.1	42	INF

11	Jan_21_2015	74.86	75.31	74.38	74.11	74.15	74.1	73.98(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-18	10	-4	-58	1.97	60%	-0.03	-8.2	0.97%	0	-1	30	INF
12	Jan_20_2015	74.88	75.43	74.39	74.22	73.95	74.12	74.53(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-5	10	17	-71	1.55	60%	-0.01	4.9	0.97%	0	-0.7	30	INF
13	Jan_16_2015	74.89	75.43	74.4	74.17	73.99	73.79	74.22(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-32	-30	-8	-103	1.65	60%	-0.03	10.2	0.99%	0	-1	28	INF
14	Jan_15_2015	74.91	75.5	74.53	74.3	74.16	73.78	73.71(-0.55%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-60	-40	-39	-123	1.54	60%	-0.05	15.1	1%	0	-1.4	24	INF
15	Jan_14_2015	74.95	75.49	74.77	74.64	74.48	74.19	74.12(-0.54%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-50	-30	-28	-116	1.32	60%	-0.04	17.1	1.01%	0	-1.1	24	INF

16	Jan_13_2015	74.98	75.42	75.06	74.68	74.81	74.54	74.52(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-30	-20	-7	-99	1.45	60%	-0.03	10.4	1.02%	0	-0.7	42	INF
17	Jan_12_2015	75	75.42	75.33	74.58	74.72	74.78	74.26(-0.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-37	10	-16	-100	1.95	60%	-0.03	2.9	1.03%	0	-0.7	40	INF
18	Jan_9_2015	75.02	75.36	75.65	74.66	74.7	75.08	74.9(-0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-5	40	18	-73	1.16	60%	-0.01	3.2	1.04%	0	-0.3	46	INF
19	Jan_8_2015	75.03	75.3	75.89	74.8	74.64	74.67	75.4(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-8	-0	6	-50	1.48	60%	0.03	2.7	1.05%	0	0.1	60	INF
20	Jan_7_2015	75.01	75.3	76.11	74.96	74.88	74.32	74.33(0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-44	-60	-47	-34	1.59	56%	-0.04	6.2	1.03%	0	-0.5	62	INF

21	Jan_6_2015	75.04	75.27	76.31	75.53	75.51	74.62	73.99(-0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-57	-80	-77	5	1.59	56%	-0.05	16.8	1.05%	0	-0.8	64	INF
22	Jan_5_2015	75.08	75.32	76.57	76.21	76.24	75.44	74.68(-1.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-43	-70	-76	56	1.35	56%	-0.03	0	1.06%	0	-0.4	62	INF
23	Jan_2_2015	75.1	75.31	76.71	76.76	76.82	76.41	75.59(-0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-12	-40	-51	107	0.93	61%	0.03	0	1.04%	0	0.2	59	INF
24	Dec_31_2014	75.08	75.26	76.59	77.12	77.22	77.04	76.2(-1.26%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	19	-10	-22	140	0.92	61%	0.08	0	1.05%	0	0.6	65	INF
25	Dec_30_2014	75.02	75.16	76.31	77.43	77.4	77.24	77.17(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	39	-20	-1	159	1.38	67%		0	1.02%	0	1.2	61	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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