Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Aug. 23, 2016

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $27.6300 (-0.5%) ($27.5200 - $27.8700) on Tue. Aug. 23, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.4% (three month average)
RSI   32
Latest Price   $27.6300(-0.5%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS declines -3.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(48%)    IWO(46%)    IVW(43%)    IWF(43%)    IWM(43%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.7% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-9%)    VIXM(-8%)    SHY(-5%)    IBUY(-4%)    UUP(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.7% (StdDev 3.4%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.5%

Resistance Level   $28.92
5 Day Moving Average   $27.65(-0.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.42(0.77%)
20 Day Moving Average   $28.92(-4.46%)
To recent high   -33.8%
To recent low   7.4%
Market Cap   $1.462b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 6.09% (three month std-dev: 3.4%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 3.09%(80%) Average negative next day return: -4.82%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 2.74%(80%) Average negative next three day return: -3.1%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 2.49%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160923

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_23_2016	34.11	28.92	27.42	27.65	27.71	27.79	27.63(-0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-12	30	6	-66	0.23	25%	-0.23	-44.3	3.4%	0	-0.7	32	0
2	Aug_22_2016	34.19	29.11	27.6	27.43	27.47	27.88	27.77(-0.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-14	110	7	-78	0.35	25%	-0.18	-40.2	3.4%	0	-0.7	32	0
3	Aug_19_2016	34.25	29.29	27.78	27.36	27.31	27.63	28.01(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-10	80	15	-84	0.47	25%	-0.2	-37.7	3.41%	0	-0.7	30	0
4	Aug_18_2016	34.32	29.42	27.93	27.13	27.16	27.05	27.92(3.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-25	-30	3	-107	0.46	25%	-0.15	-39.1	3.41%	0	-0.9	27	0
5	Aug_17_2016	34.37	29.55	28.18	27.07	27.1	27	26.9(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-35	-20	-8	-117	1.01	20%	-0.2	-37.8	3.38%	0	-1.5	24	0

6	Aug_16_2016	34.44	29.72	28.53	27.18	27.33	27.27	26.56(-3.14%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-43	0	-15	-125	0.65	24%	-0.14	-36.1	3.37%	0	-2	18	0
7	Aug_15_2016	34.49	29.85	28.93	27.79	27.63	27.2	27.42(2.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-42	-130	-18	-113	0.52	24%	-0.2	-32.5	3.39%	0	-1.7	24	0
8	Aug_12_2016	34.56	29.97	29.28	28.26	28.21	27.39	26.87(-2.64%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-47	-210	-27	-106	0.85	24%	-0.14	-23.3	3.39%	0	-2.3	21	0
9	Aug_11_2016	34.61	30.12	29.76	28.84	28.84	28.07	27.6(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-45	-190	-31	-86	0.5	24%	-0.12	-9.4	3.38%	0	-2.1	33	0
10	Aug_10_2016	34.65	30.22	30.12	29.46	29.31	29.03	27.44(-7.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-34	-80	-25	-62	0.61	24%	-0.14	10.4	3.38%	0	-2.6	32	0

11	Aug_9_2016	34.7	30.32	30.58	30.06	29.83	29.61	29.63(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-11	-70	-5	-28	0.34	27%	-0.03	38.4	3.27%	0	-0.8	50	0
12	Aug_8_2016	34.71	30.33	30.77	30.23	30.03	29.59	29.77(-0.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-13	-120	-14	-10	0.72	27%	-0.03	54.5	3.28%	0	-0.6	63	0
13	Aug_5_2016	34.72	30.29	30.94	30.47	30.31	30.05	29.78(-2.97%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-11	-80	-17	7	1.28	27%	0	65.3	3.28%	0	-0.5	54	0
14	Aug_4_2016	34.72	30.24	31.04	30.82	30.75	30.47	30.69(0.89%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	5	-70	-4	30	0.61	26%	0	77.3	3.27%	0	0.4	61	0
15	Aug_3_2016	34.72	30.11	31.03	30.89	30.9	30.58	30.42(-0.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-2	-70	-15	36	0.56	26%	-0.03	78.5	3.29%	0	0.3	62	0

16	Aug_2_2016	34.73	29.98	31.01	31.18	31.18	31.03	30.47(-1.61%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	7	-30	-9	56	0.79	30%	-0.06	81.6	3.29%	0	0.4	63	0
17	Aug_1_2016	34.75	29.83	30.85	31.4	31.43	31.22	30.97(-1.81%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	12	-40	-4	61	0.74	30%	-0.03	91.5	3.31%	0	0.8	59	0
18	Jul_29_2016	34.76	29.64	30.72	31.49	31.47	31.34	31.54(1.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	18	-30	0	71	1	30%	-0.03	86.4	3.33%	0	1.3	68	0
19	Jul_28_2016	34.77	29.4	30.51	31.29	31.38	31.64	31.03(-2.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	22	70	5	74	0.48	30%	-0.03	72.5	3.33%	0	1.1	69	0
20	Jul_27_2016	34.78	29.18	30.32	31.18	31.13	31.59	31.9(1.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	35	100	18	84	0.29	30%	-0.03	59.9	3.32%	0	1.7	77	0

21	Jul_26_2016	34.79	28.92	30.03	30.81	30.76	31.11	31.58(0.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	38	70	23	83	0.46	30%	-0.06	23.6	3.32%	0	1.8	77	0
22	Jul_25_2016	34.81	28.62	29.83	30.22	30.25	30.67	31.39(2.78%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	30	100	15	76	0.67	30%	-0.06	-21	3.32%	0	1.8	79	0
23	Jul_22_2016	34.83	28.43	29.56	29.85	29.79	30.42	30.54(0.1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	31	140	16	75	0.53	33%	-0.06	-59.3	3.29%	0	1.5	77	0
24	Jul_21_2016	34.85	28.33	29.34	29.63	29.52	29.82	30.51(1.6%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	34	60	18	80	0.67	33%	-0.09	-100	3.32%	0	1.7	79	0
25	Jul_20_2016	34.88	28.27	29.08	29.34	29.3	29.17	30.03(4.93%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	22	-40	4	74	0.54	33%		-143.1	3.32%	0	1.4	77	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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