Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Mar. 29, 2016

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $33.5500 (5.8%) ($31.5600 - $33.6900) on Tue. Mar. 29, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.98% (three month average)
RSI   53
Latest Price   $33.5500(5.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(48%)    IWO(46%)    XBI(44%)    IVW(43%)    IWF(43%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.49% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-9%)    TLT(-9%)    SPLV(-7%)    SHY(-5%)    UUP(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.49% (StdDev 2.98%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $32.19(4.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $31.44(6.71%)
20 Day Moving Average   $32.07(4.61%)
To recent high   -11.8%
To recent low   12.3%
Market Cap   $1.775b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 3.43% (three month std-dev: 2.98%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 11.24%(20%) Average negative next day return: -2.46%(80%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 5.12%(80%) Average negative next three day return: 0%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 4.84%(80%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(20%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160429

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_29_2016	34.18	32.07	31.44	32.19	31.99	32.23	33.55(5.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	23	30	26	13	0.71	45%	0	-41.7	2.98%	0	1.3	53	0
2	Mar_28_2016	34.18	31.98	31.24	31.57	31.65	31.64	31.71(-0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-1	10	8	-26	0.59	42%	0.03	-76.5	2.89%	0	-0.3	37	0
3	Mar_24_2016	34.17	32.08	31.27	31.31	31.31	31.74	31.88(1.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-1	100	13	-42	0.31	42%	0	-74.7	2.89%	0	-0.2	39	0
4	Mar_23_2016	34.17	32.23	31.29	30.91	30.99	31.67	31.31(-3.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-1	160	19	-59	0.43	42%	-0.03	-73.2	2.88%	0	-0.7	40	0
5	Mar_22_2016	34.18	32.42	31.4	30.85	30.59	30.88	32.49(6.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-6	40	16	-70	0.65	43%	0.03	-70.4	2.85%	0	0	41	0

6	Mar_21_2016	34.17	32.53	31.39	30.6	30.55	30.88	30.47(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-32	-60	-10	-98	0.57	39%	0.03	-68.2	2.72%	0	-1.2	29	0
7	Mar_18_2016	34.16	32.8	31.69	30.88	30.81	30.31	30.39(1.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-38	-120	-22	-84	0.71	40%	-0.03	-58.5	2.72%	0	-1.4	42	0
8	Mar_17_2016	34.17	33.06	32	31.22	31.26	30.8	29.88(-3.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-39	-100	-26	-77	0.51	40%	-0.03	-50.4	2.72%	0	-2	29	0
9	Mar_16_2016	34.18	33.3	32.32	31.71	31.72	31.31	31.04(-0.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-32	-90	-19	-70	0.27	42%	0.03	-41.8	2.69%	0	-1.6	28	0
10	Mar_15_2016	34.17	33.51	32.58	32	32.08	31.73	31.2(-2.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-30	-70	-17	-70	0.32	45%	0.06	-28.1	2.69%	0	-1.7	28	0

11	Mar_14_2016	34.15	33.7	32.78	32.29	32.35	32.13	31.89(-0.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-30	-40	-16	-70	0.33	45%	0.09	-11.5	2.74%	0	-1.4	32	0
12	Mar_11_2016	34.12	33.81	32.81	32.64	32.61	32.42	32.11(-0.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-29	-40	-12	-80	0.52	45%	0.12	-3.9	2.74%	0	-1.4	30	0
13	Mar_10_2016	34.08	33.88	32.99	32.9	32.95	32.57	32.32(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-26	-80	-8	-79	0.32	45%	0.09	-3.8	2.75%	0	-1.3	33	0
14	Mar_9_2016	34.05	33.91	33.26	33.02	33.09	32.8	32.47(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-31	-50	-16	-75	0.3	45%	0.09	-11.4	2.75%	0	-1.3	43	0
15	Mar_8_2016	34.02	33.9	33.53	33.24	33.25	33.33	32.68(-2.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-19	20	-4	-63	0.41	45%	0.09	-19.1	2.75%	0	-1	40	0

16	Mar_7_2016	33.99	33.85	33.76	33.34	33.31	33.37	33.6(0.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-3	10	14	-53	0.28	45%	0.15	-26.6	2.73%	0	-0.2	45	0
17	Mar_4_2016	33.94	33.86	33.98	33.01	33.31	33.18	33.44(1.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-18	30	-3	-61	0.43	47%	0.12	-36.2	2.74%	0	-0.3	50	0
18	Mar_3_2016	33.9	33.92	34.18	33.11	33.05	33.25	32.9(-2.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-16	40	-6	-46	0.28	45%	0.15	-28.8	2.76%	0	-0.8	51	0
19	Mar_2_2016	33.85	34.04	34.34	33.55	33.28	32.93	33.58(1.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-15	-100	-12	-25	0.35	45%	0.15	-13.4	2.77%	0	-0.3	57	0
20	Mar_1_2016	33.8	34.13	34.5	33.89	33.81	32.86	33.17(3.82%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-21	-200	-28	0	0.83	45%	0.15	-3	2.77%	0	-0.7	60	0

21	Feb_29_2016	33.75	34.19	34.68	34.26	34.39	33.63	31.95(-5.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.7	-26	-140	-44	29	0.71	42%	0.09	5.9	2.72%	0	-1.7	58	0
22	Feb_26_2016	33.72	34.34	34.92	35.06	34.99	34.76	33.94(-3.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	3	-50	-20	73	0.64	45%	0.18	26.5	2.62%	0	-0.3	52	0
23	Feb_25_2016	33.66	34.31	34.88	35.39	35.45	35.14	35.11(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	24	-60	3	88	0.46	46%	0.24	34.6	2.61%	0	0.6	51	0
24	Feb_24_2016	33.58	34.22	34.65	35.23	35.45	35.22	35.29(0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	8	-10	-10	62	0.33	48%	0.27	33.2	2.61%	0	0.9	49	0
25	Feb_23_2016	33.49	34.17	34.32	35.2	35.33	35.77	35.01(-2.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	18	100	8	48	0.59	48%		45.4	2.62%	0	0.7	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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