Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 30, 2014

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $25.6200 (-1.16%) ($25.5300 - $26.0700) on Tue. Dec. 30, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.17% (three month average)
RSI   59
Latest Price   $25.6200(-1.16%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 2.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(48%)    XBI(45%)    IWM(44%)    SPY(42%)    QQQ(41%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.085% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-11%)    TLT(-10%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-3%)    UUP(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.085% (StdDev 2.17%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $25.78(-0.62%)
10 Day Moving Average   $25.56(0.23%)
20 Day Moving Average   $24.96(2.64%)
To recent high   -2.9%
To recent low   36.2%
Market Cap   $1.355b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 3.04% (three month std-dev: 2.17%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 14 Average positive next day return: 1.35%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.49%(50%) Sample size 14 Average positive next three day return: 1.68%(71%) Average negative next three day return: -1.62%(29%) Sample size 14 Average positive next weekly return: 2.15%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.07%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_30_2014	22.18	24.96	25.56	25.78	25.92	25.97	25.62(-1.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	18	30	-1	74	0.08	64%	0.18	72	2.17%	0	0.9	59	INF
2	Dec_29_2014	22.14	24.89	25.39	25.73	25.76	26.2	25.92(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	120	13	71	0.09	64%	0.18	76.7	2.18%	0	1.4	62	INF
3	Dec_26_2014	22.1	24.77	25.25	25.65	25.55	25.88	26.38(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	35	80	22	75	0.11	65%	0.27	76.8	2.16%	0	2.1	66	INF
4	Dec_24_2014	22.04	24.63	25.1	25.47	25.39	25.33	26.1(4.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	23	-30	6	72	0.12	65%	0.18	83.3	2.15%	0	2.1	69	INF
5	Dec_23_2014	22	24.49	24.92	25.37	25.43	25.22	24.9(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	16	-50	-2	68	0.16	61%	0.18	90.3	2.08%	0	0.6	57	INF

6	Dec_22_2014	21.96	24.43	24.89	25.29	25.39	25.45	25.34(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	28	30	13	73	0.14	61%	0.18	91	2.08%	0	1.3	60	INF
7	Dec_19_2014	21.92	24.32	24.79	24.97	25.06	25.63	25.55(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	29	170	19	58	0.75	59%	0.23	79.2	2.08%	0	1.8	63	INF
8	Dec_18_2014	21.87	24.19	24.67	24.78	24.74	25.33	25.48(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	36	160	28	59	0.16	59%	0.18	71.6	2.1%	0	1.9	67	INF
9	Dec_17_2014	21.83	24.05	24.49	24.66	24.48	24.49	25.6(4.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	26	-20	18	51	0.32	59%	0.23	61.7	2.09%	0	2.2	67	INF
10	Dec_16_2014	21.78	23.91	24.34	24.42	24.43	24.16	24.47(3.03%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	1	-80	-10	33	0.3	57%	0.14	56.3	2.03%	0	0.9	62	INF

11	Dec_15_2014	21.75	23.83	24.32	24.44	24.54	24.46	23.75(-3.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	2	-10	-12	42	0.36	55%	0.09	55.6	2%	0	-0.1	54	INF
12	Dec_12_2014	21.73	23.79	24.37	24.57	24.55	24.71	24.59(-1.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	23	40	6	73	0.36	58%	0.14	61	1.96%	0	1.2	69	INF
13	Dec_11_2014	21.7	23.71	24.26	24.53	24.46	24.61	24.91(2.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	35	30	19	84	0.32	58%	0.14	72.5	1.95%	0	1.8	76	INF
14	Dec_10_2014	21.67	23.63	24.13	24.28	24.27	24.38	24.37(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	22	30	5	73	0.17	56%	0.14	88.2	1.94%	0	1.2	75	INF
15	Dec_9_2014	21.64	23.56	24.04	24.25	24.15	24.32	24.56(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	25	40	7	80	0.27	56%	0.14	105.5	1.94%	0	1.7	73	INF

16	Dec_8_2014	21.61	23.47	23.94	24.19	24.15	24.16	24.41(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	27	0	7	88	0.15	56%	0.14	119.8	1.94%	0	1.6	73	INF
17	Dec_5_2014	21.58	23.37	23.82	24.14	24.12	23.99	24.38(2.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	27	-40	6	90	0.13	53%	0.19	131.1	1.95%	0	1.8	70	INF
18	Dec_4_2014	21.54	23.22	23.68	23.96	24.08	24.09	23.68(-2.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	17	20	-2	74	0.17	48%	0.09	104.4	1.98%	0	0.7	62	INF
19	Dec_3_2014	21.52	23.1	23.58	23.94	23.98	24.25	24.23(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	28	80	14	70	0.1	50%	0.14	88.7	1.99%	0	1.4	58	INF
20	Dec_2_2014	21.49	22.95	23.45	23.78	23.8	24.06	24.24(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	28	80	17	60	0.23	50%	0.14	81.8	1.99%	0	1.5	64	INF

21	Dec_1_2014	21.46	22.79	23.29	23.66	23.6	23.72	24.16(2.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	24	30	14	52	0.25	50%	0.09	78.7	1.99%	0	1.5	68	INF
22	Nov_28_2014	21.44	22.65	23.16	23.47	23.47	23.55	23.48(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	17	20	9	40	0.26	48%	0.09	80.2	1.96%	0	0.9	63	INF
23	Nov_26_2014	21.42	22.53	23.11	23.35	23.36	23.48	23.57(0.43%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	24	40	13	55	0.11	50%	0.09	73.6	1.95%	0	1.1	77	INF
24	Nov_25_2014	21.4	22.39	23.09	23.17	23.17	23.4	23.47(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	27	70	12	73	0.17	50%	0.05	70.2	1.97%	0	1.1	77	INF
25	Nov_24_2014	21.39	22.26	23.05	23.06	23	23.23	23.61(1.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	36	60	17	91	0.12	50%		68.9	1.98%	0	1.3	77	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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