Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 5, 2014

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $21.0000 (3.65%) ($19.8800 - $21.0300) on Thu. Jun. 5, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.85% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $21.0000(3.65%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 2.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XBI(45%)    IWM(44%)    SPY(42%)    QQQ(41%)    VT(38%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.425% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-12%)    TLT(-10%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-3%)    UUP(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.425% (StdDev 2.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $20.43(2.79%)
10 Day Moving Average   $20.43(2.79%)
20 Day Moving Average   $20.34(3.24%)
To recent high   -20.8%
To recent low   8.9%
Market Cap   $1.111b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 4.62% (three month std-dev: 2.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20140705

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_5_2014	23.14	20.34	20.43	20.43	20.3	20.36	21(3.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	18	0	8	48	0.36	46%	-0.17	-92	2.85%	0	0.7	64	INF
2	Jun_4_2014	23.18	20.47	20.26	20.33	20.28	20.14	20.26(0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	5	-60	-5	33	0.17	44%	-0.17	-76.2	2.81%	0	-0.2	56	INF
3	Jun_3_2014	23.22	20.64	20.17	20.4	20.38	20.23	20.1(-1.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-2	-50	-13	30	0.31	44%	-0.17	-63.5	2.82%	0	-0.4	56	INF
4	Jun_2_2014	23.26	20.85	20.15	20.6	20.58	20.43	20.32(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	12	-50	1	44	0.14	44%	-0.17	-51.1	2.82%	0	-0.3	50	INF
5	May_30_2014	23.3	21.05	20.08	20.52	20.64	20.52	20.49(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	7	-20	2	23	0.21	44%	-0.13	-44.9	2.84%	0	-0.3	39	INF

6	May_29_2014	23.33	21.24	20	20.4	20.5	20.73	20.48(-0.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	3	90	10	-18	0.15	44%	-0.09	-44.3	2.86%	0	-0.4	27	INF
7	May_28_2014	23.35	21.45	19.93	20.17	20.27	20.77	20.6(-2.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	190	22	-65	0.52	42%	-0.13	-45.1	2.88%	0	-0.4	26	INF
8	May_27_2014	23.38	21.62	19.84	19.91	19.87	20.27	21.12(5.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-14	130	21	-118	0.47	42%	-0.09	-49	2.9%	0	-0.2	27	INF
9	May_23_2014	23.4	21.74	19.74	19.64	19.58	19.78	19.93(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-40	60	9	-185	0.16	38%	-0.09	-54	2.72%	0	-0.8	14	INF
10	May_22_2014	23.42	21.92	19.87	19.58	19.58	19.47	19.89(3.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-52	-30	3	-218	0.29	38%	-0.17	-55.3	2.75%	0	-0.9	13	INF

11	May_21_2014	23.46	22.16	20.21	19.55	19.53	19.38	19.3(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-66	-60	-10	-235	0.22	36%	-0.09	-54.1	2.73%	0	-1.3	7	INF
12	May_20_2014	23.48	22.45	20.66	19.66	19.68	19.6	19.29(-2.58%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-63	-30	-6	-234	0.67	38%	-0.13	-49.3	2.74%	0	-1.4	7	INF
13	May_19_2014	23.51	22.76	21.13	19.75	19.77	19.69	19.8(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-62	-30	-6	-230	0.29	38%	-0.13	-44.7	2.74%	0	-1.4	17	INF
14	May_16_2014	23.54	23	21.59	19.85	19.85	19.76	19.62(-0.61%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-70	-30	-19	-224	0.56	39%	-0.13	-40.2	2.74%	0	-1.7	23	INF
15	May_15_2014	23.57	23.23	22.09	20.22	20.16	19.86	19.74(-0.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-74	-110	-32	-201	0.56	39%	-0.17	-35.2	2.77%	0	-1.9	26	INF

16	May_14_2014	23.61	23.45	22.58	21.01	20.48	19.94	19.84(0.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-79	-260	-48	-172	0.6	39%	-0.13	-25.8	2.79%	0	-2.1	22	INF
17	May_13_2014	23.64	23.61	23.1	21.84	21.51	20.47	19.74(-2.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.4	-71	-380	-49	-135	0.92	39%	-0.08	-16	2.79%	0	-2.6	20	INF
18	May_12_2014	23.66	23.74	23.59	22.73	22.51	21.02	20.32(-5.36%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.9	-74	-490	-63	-107	1.02	43%	-0.08	-3.6	2.77%	0	-2.7	21	INF
19	May_9_2014	23.68	23.85	23.96	23.56	23.41	22.56	21.47(-9.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-60	-270	-56	-72	1.41	45%	0	15.5	2.69%	0	-2.2	34	NAN
20	May_8_2014	23.68	23.92	24.19	24.21	24.24	23.99	23.66(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-18	-70	-14	-30	0.21	51%	0.04	29.6	2.44%	0	-0.3	49	NAN

21	May_7_2014	23.67	23.9	24.31	24.39	24.41	24.26	24(-0.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-12	-40	-13	-10	0.56	51%	0.13	29	2.45%	0	0.1	55	NAN
22	May_6_2014	23.64	23.85	24.41	24.57	24.58	24.48	24.2(-1.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	5	-30	-3	28	0.54	51%	0.13	27.5	2.46%	0	0.3	66	NAN
23	May_5_2014	23.61	23.79	24.51	24.59	24.61	24.57	24.48(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	20	-10	5	66	0.35	49%	0.13	23.8	2.45%	0	0.7	71	NAN
24	May_2_2014	23.58	23.68	24.5	24.42	24.5	24.69	24.72(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	31	60	13	84	0.44	49%	0.13	16.2	2.45%	0	1	72	NAN
25	May_1_2014	23.55	23.62	24.44	24.17	24.23	24.65	24.57(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	26	130	7	84	0.42	49%		9.7	2.47%	0	0.9	66	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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