Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Mar. 11, 2014

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $25.6400 (-3.35%) ($25.2200 - $26.3100) on Tue. Mar. 11, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.47% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $25.6400(-3.35%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XBI(45%)    IWM(44%)    SPY(42%)    QQQ(41%)    XLK(38%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.235% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-10%)    XHB(-6%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-3%)    UUP(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.235% (StdDev 2.47%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $25.32(1.26%)
10 Day Moving Average   $24.61(4.19%)
20 Day Moving Average   $24.2(5.95%)
To recent high   -3.4%
To recent low   27.4%
Market Cap   $1.356b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 3.76% (three month std-dev: 2.47%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 9 Average positive next day return: 0.74%(44%) Average negative next day return: -0.97%(56%) Sample size 9 Average positive next three day return: 1.26%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -1.81%(33%) Sample size 9 Average positive next weekly return: 1.84%(44%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.98%(56%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140411

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_11_2014	21.92	24.2	24.61	25.32	25.55	26.1	25.64(-3.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	34	180	19	80	0.74	56%	0.37	76.3	2.47%	0	1.6	70	NAN
2	Mar_10_2014	21.84	24.07	24.46	24.94	25.06	26.06	26.53(1.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	57	290	50	76	0.4	60%	0.41	71.7	2.44%	0	2.8	73	NAN
3	Mar_7_2014	21.75	23.87	24.2	24.32	24.43	25.01	26.23(8.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.7	46	180	46	46	1.16	60%	0.37	63.6	2.46%	0	3.3	75	NAN
4	Mar_6_2014	21.67	23.67	23.97	23.74	23.84	24.06	24.15(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	5	80	5	4	0.69	51%	0.32	53.1	2.24%	0	0.9	59	NAN
5	Mar_5_2014	21.6	23.58	23.95	23.76	23.72	23.86	24.05(1.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	4	40	3	7	0.3	51%	0.33	50.6	2.25%	0	0.8	54	NAN

6	Mar_4_2014	21.53	23.53	23.9	23.8	23.78	23.61	23.76(1.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	0	-50	-4	12	0.35	51%	0.33	61	2.25%	0	0.4	60	NAN
7	Mar_3_2014	21.46	23.47	23.9	23.9	23.89	23.57	23.39(0.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-8	-100	-17	21	0.32	51%	0.28	69.2	2.24%	0	-0.1	56	NAN
8	Feb_28_2014	21.4	23.43	23.92	24.05	24.1	23.95	23.37(-3.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	0	-40	-13	40	0.21	51%	0.28	80.8	2.21%	0	-0.1	61	NAN
9	Feb_27_2014	21.34	23.39	23.95	24.2	24.22	24.2	24.23(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	18	-0	-0	70	0.21	56%	0.38	86	2.17%	0	1.2	76	NAN
10	Feb_26_2014	21.26	23.28	23.9	24.17	24.24	24.25	24.27(0.17%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	29	10	8	90	0.17	60%	0.33	61.6	2.17%	0	1.3	77	NAN

11	Feb_25_2014	21.19	23.16	23.78	24.01	24.1	24.24	24.23(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	24	50	5	80	0.23	60%	0.38	38.3	2.21%	0	1.4	64	NAN
12	Feb_24_2014	21.11	23.03	23.68	23.95	23.96	24.22	24.15(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	80	15	89	0.36	60%	0.33	16.8	2.22%	0	1.5	67	NAN
13	Feb_21_2014	21.04	22.9	23.53	23.78	23.81	23.95	24.13(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	30	40	13	80	0.23	60%	0.33	-6.5	2.22%	0	1.6	65	NAN
14	Feb_20_2014	20.97	22.8	23.36	23.66	23.6	23.69	24.06(2.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	19	20	3	68	0.24	60%	0.29	-24.6	2.22%	0	1.7	66	NAN
15	Feb_19_2014	20.91	22.83	23.18	23.6	23.55	23.67	23.49(-1.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	24	30	8	73	0.13	57%	0.24	-22	2.2%	0	0.8	67	NAN

16	Feb_18_2014	20.86	22.88	23.12	23.52	23.49	23.51	23.91(2.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	28	0	10	81	0.32	57%	0.43	-20.7	2.2%	0	1.1	71	NAN
17	Feb_14_2014	20.77	22.9	22.97	23.36	23.38	23.42	23.33(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	25	10	6	82	0.22	54%	0.29	-18.9	2.17%	0	0.4	71	NAN
18	Feb_13_2014	20.71	22.95	22.9	23.23	23.25	23.48	23.51(-1.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	35	70	16	90	0.17	54%	0.29	-15.9	2.17%	0	0.5	73	NAN
19	Feb_12_2014	20.65	22.99	22.79	23	23.01	23.33	23.77(3.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	38	100	23	81	0.5	54%	0.29	-16.9	2.17%	0	0.7	65	NAN
20	Feb_11_2014	20.59	23.01	22.6	22.69	22.76	23.03	23.06(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	90	12	23	0.39	50%	0.24	-19.3	2.15%	0	0	35	NAN

21	Feb_10_2014	20.54	23.07	22.49	22.66	22.57	22.69	23.15(2.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	5	30	10	-11	0.2	50%	0.24	-14.1	2.14%	0	0.1	37	NAN
22	Feb_7_2014	20.49	23.09	22.33	22.53	22.55	22.49	22.67(1.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-11	-20	1	-48	0.26	60%	0.2	-14.6	2.65%	0	-0.4	34	NAN
23	Feb_6_2014	20.45	23.12	22.22	22.52	22.54	22.44	22.33(0.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-22	-30	-4	-77	0.3	56%	0.2	-12.9	2.69%	0	-0.7	32	NAN
24	Feb_5_2014	20.41	23.17	22.21	22.54	22.52	22.62	22.25(-2.92%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-21	30	2	-91	0.64	56%	0.25	-6.9	2.73%	0	-0.8	34	NAN
25	Feb_4_2014	20.36	23.23	22.45	22.47	22.46	22.65	22.92(1.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-13	60	13	-90	0.36	59%		-3.5	2.7%	0	-0.3	36	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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