Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 23, 2013

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $22.5100 (1.67%) ($22.1100 - $22.7000) on Mon. Dec. 23, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.33% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $22.5100(1.67%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(44%)    QQQ(41%)    SPY(41%)    XLK(37%)    XLY(35%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.165% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-10%)    SHY(-6%)    XBI(-3%)    IGOV(-3%)    GDXJ(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.165% (StdDev 2.33%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $21.91(2.74%)
10 Day Moving Average   $21.51(4.65%)
20 Day Moving Average   $21.32(5.58%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   34.5%
Market Cap   $1.191b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 2.49% (three month std-dev: 2.33%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 19 Average positive next day return: 1.5%(47%) Average negative next day return: -1.39%(53%) Sample size 19 Average positive next three day return: 2.09%(58%) Average negative next three day return: -1.09%(42%) Sample size 19 Average positive next weekly return: 2.68%(63%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.74%(37%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140123

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_23_2013	18.64	21.32	21.51	21.91	21.9	22.16	22.51(1.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	27	80	17	55	0.16	69%	0.32	90.4	2.33%	0	2.2	63	0
2	Dec_20_2013	18.58	21.21	21.36	21.73	21.66	21.83	22.14(2.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	16	50	9	38	0.31	69%	0.27	93.1	2.33%	0	1.9	58	0
3	Dec_19_2013	18.53	21.11	21.28	21.64	21.54	21.64	21.67(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	14	20	7	35	0.12	69%	0.27	89	2.32%	0	1.1	55	0
4	Dec_18_2013	18.48	21.03	21.22	21.55	21.5	21.5	21.77(1.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	-10	17	31	0.16	69%	0.33	81.7	2.32%	0	1.4	55	0
5	Dec_17_2013	18.42	20.94	21.16	21.22	21.32	21.44	21.44(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	9	50	9	7	0.08	69%	0.27	62.8	2.32%	0	0.9	53	0

6	Dec_16_2013	18.37	20.86	21.12	21.05	21.03	21.51	21.65(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	11	160	14	3	0.32	69%	0.27	47.6	2.32%	0	1.3	64	0
7	Dec_13_2013	18.32	20.77	21.07	20.92	20.88	21.19	21.67(2.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	15	100	18	6	0.26	71%	0.27	42.9	2.32%	0	1.5	65	0
8	Dec_12_2013	18.27	20.67	21.07	20.87	20.73	20.55	21.2(5.32%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	1	-80	-2	8	0.13	71%	0.27	60.7	2.33%	0	0.9	65	0
9	Dec_11_2013	18.22	20.67	21.02	20.86	20.87	20.57	20.13(-2.19%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.2	-12	-100	-20	13	0.11	68%	0.22	73.6	2.25%	0	-0.8	56	0
10	Dec_10_2013	18.18	20.61	21.02	21.09	21.06	20.9	20.58(-2.05%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	3	-60	-12	49	0.1	68%	0.22	97	2.23%	0	-0	64	0

11	Dec_9_2013	18.14	20.58	21.14	21.19	21.16	21.17	21.01(-2.05%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	16	-0	-3	73	0.12	68%	0.22	109.2	2.21%	0	0.7	77	0
12	Dec_6_2013	18.1	20.51	21.08	21.23	21.21	21.21	21.45(1.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	25	-0	4	87	0.07	65%	0.28	117.7	2.19%	0	1.4	78	0
13	Dec_5_2013	18.05	20.32	20.95	21.18	21.16	21.15	21.11(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	19	-10	-3	85	0.1	65%	0.22	78.8	2.21%	0	0.9	76	0
14	Dec_4_2013	18.01	20.17	20.85	21.21	21.16	21.21	21.29(1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	25	-0	1	95	0.1	68%	0.28	69.2	2.2%	0	1.1	80	0
15	Dec_3_2013	17.96	20.04	20.72	21.2	21.22	21.17	21.08(-0.71%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	27	-10	4	94	0.19	68%	0.22	67.4	2.25%	0	1	69	0

16	Dec_2_2013	17.92	19.91	20.58	21.08	21.15	21.24	21.23(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	29	40	9	87	0.12	68%	0.28	63.1	2.25%	0	1.3	76	0
17	Nov_29_2013	17.87	19.77	20.44	20.9	20.98	21.27	21.2(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	110	18	81	0.06	65%	0.51	59.3	2.27%	0	1.4	78	0
18	Nov_27_2013	17.78	19.63	20.3	20.67	20.71	21.06	21.25(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	41	120	22	97	0.12	62%	0.34	53.8	2.28%	0	1.6	90	0
19	Nov_26_2013	17.72	19.5	20.15	20.43	20.42	20.69	21.22(3.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	39	90	19	100	0.1	62%	0.4	50.6	2.37%	0	1.9	79	0
20	Nov_25_2013	17.65	19.37	20.03	20.19	20.21	20.37	20.49(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	37	60	15	102	0.09	60%	0.34	48.8	2.33%	0	1.3	67	0

21	Nov_22_2013	17.59	19.28	19.95	20.01	20.04	20.15	20.33(1.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	32	40	8	103	0.15	62%	0.11	48.3	2.34%	0	1.3	67	0
22	Nov_21_2013	17.57	19.19	19.88	19.92	19.92	20.05	20.07(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	32	50	5	111	0.12	62%	0.34	49	2.37%	0	1.1	66	0
23	Nov_20_2013	17.51	19.12	19.64	19.87	19.88	19.93	20.06(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	20	5	98	0.08	62%	0.34	53.6	2.37%	0	1.3	66	0
24	Nov_19_2013	17.45	19.05	19.44	19.83	19.83	19.8	19.99(1.99%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	20	-10	-2	86	0.09	62%	0.35	60.6	2.37%	0	1.3	63	0
25	Nov_18_2013	17.39	18.97	19.3	19.85	19.86	19.82	19.6(-1.31%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	20	-10	-3	88	0.09	62%		71.9	2.36%	0	0.9	59	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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