Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 14, 2011

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $22.8100 (5.8%) ($20.9300 - $23.5500) on Mon. Mar. 14, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.08% (three month average)
RSI   67
Latest Price   $22.8100(5.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 2.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 4.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(45%)    SPY(43%)    QQQ(42%)    XLK(39%)    XLY(37%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.04% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-13%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(0%)    GLD(1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.04% (StdDev 2.08%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 9%

5 Day Moving Average   $21.66(5.31%)
10 Day Moving Average   $20.81(9.61%)
20 Day Moving Average   $20.56(10.94%)
To recent high   -1.6%
To recent low   17%
Market Cap   $1.207b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 3.94% (three month std-dev: 2.08%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.7%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 2.8%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.81%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 4.71%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.98%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110414

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_14_2011	19.8	20.56	20.81	21.66	21.03	20.86	22.81(5.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	69	-140	42	149	0.62	67%	0.3	42.1	2.08%	0	2.8	67	NAN
2	Mar_11_2011	19.74	20.43	20.5	21.1	20.65	20.39	21.56(1.51%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.7	13	-150	-6	71	0.82	64%	0.2	29.9	2.05%	0	1.8	52	NAN
3	Mar_10_2011	19.7	20.37	20.34	20.78	20.73	21.21	21.24(-1.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	30	150	23	51	0.21	66%	0.2	16.8	2.06%	0	1.5	54	NAN
4	Mar_9_2011	19.66	20.32	20.18	20.53	20.44	20.91	21.64(2.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	38	150	41	30	0.15	66%	0.2	1.9	2.1%	0	2.5	60	NAN
5	Mar_8_2011	19.62	20.27	19.98	20.1	20.07	20.25	21.06(5.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.1	11	60	22	-22	0.13	65%	0.2	-22	2.07%	0	1.7	54	NAN

6	Mar_7_2011	19.58	20.23	19.9	19.84	19.88	19.97	19.98(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-12	40	4	-60	0.15	61%	0.15	-39.9	1.97%	0	-0.6	38	NAN
7	Mar_4_2011	19.55	20.25	20	19.81	19.85	19.9	19.97(-0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-13	20	2	-57	0.18	61%	0.1	-36.2	1.96%	0	-0.7	44	NAN
8	Mar_3_2011	19.53	20.27	20.05	19.83	19.86	19.78	20.02(2.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-12	-20	2	-52	0.29	61%	0.15	-39.1	1.97%	0	-0.6	47	NAN
9	Mar_2_2011	19.5	20.31	20.09	19.77	19.87	19.81	19.49(-1.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-20	-10	-6	-63	0.14	59%	0.1	-41.5	1.95%	0	-1.9	40	NAN
10	Mar_1_2011	19.48	20.37	20.19	19.83	19.85	19.94	19.72(-0.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-22	30	-8	-65	0.24	59%	0.15	-38.5	1.94%	0	-1.7	38	NAN

11	Feb_28_2011	19.45	20.39	20.31	19.97	19.92	19.93	19.87(-0.95%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-20	-0	-11	-47	0.08	59%	0.15	-39.5	1.91%	0	-1.4	48	NAN
12	Feb_25_2011	19.42	20.4	20.38	20.21	20.09	19.77	20.06(1.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-17	-130	-14	-27	0.08	59%	0.15	-32.4	1.91%	0	-0.9	47	NAN
13	Feb_24_2011	19.39	20.43	20.41	20.32	20.37	19.92	19.71(-0.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-23	-150	-23	-23	0.12	61%	0.15	-30.1	1.91%	0	-2	43	NAN
14	Feb_23_2011	19.36	20.49	20.49	20.45	20.58	20.42	19.77(-3.28%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-18	-40	-19	-16	0.15	61%	0.1	-37.3	1.94%	0	-2.2	40	NAN
15	Feb_22_2011	19.34	20.52	20.6	20.6	20.58	20.83	20.44(-2.99%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	0	70	-2	6	0.08	62%	0.36	-63.8	1.89%	0	-0.3	48	NAN

16	Feb_18_2011	19.27	20.54	20.59	20.69	20.66	20.73	21.07(2.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	16	20	13	23	0.12	66%	0.26	-83.7	1.86%	0	1.8	62	NAN
17	Feb_17_2011	19.22	20.52	20.52	20.58	20.62	20.5	20.6(1.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	5	-30	1	17	0.1	64%	0.21	-125.3	1.84%	0	0.3	61	NAN
18	Feb_16_2011	19.18	20.54	20.5	20.53	20.58	20.58	20.37(-0.68%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-2	10	-5	6	0.06	61%	0.21	-110.5	1.84%	0	-0.4	47	NAN
19	Feb_15_2011	19.14	20.61	20.55	20.54	20.57	20.74	20.51(-1.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	3	60	1	10	0.12	61%	0.21	-90.4	1.88%	0	-0.2	47	NAN
20	Feb_14_2011	19.1	20.71	20.56	20.61	20.55	20.58	20.9(1.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	16	0	13	26	0.07	61%	0.16	-90	1.87%	0	0.3	57	NAN

21	Feb_11_2011	19.07	20.78	20.48	20.48	20.47	20.39	20.54(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-1	-30	-1	-1	0.06	59%	0.21	-76.9	1.88%	0	-0.3	47	NAN
22	Feb_10_2011	19.03	20.9	20.41	20.45	20.46	20.51	20.33(-0.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-7	20	-3	-17	0.1	63%	0.16	-62.5	1.88%	0	-0.6	46	NAN
23	Feb_9_2011	19	21.03	20.45	20.47	20.46	20.56	20.43(-1.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-5	30	-0	-18	0.08	63%	0.16	-54.3	2.04%	0	-0.6	43	NAN
24	Feb_8_2011	18.97	21.15	20.49	20.55	20.47	20.42	20.83(2.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-5	-30	2	-26	0.08	61%	0.16	-46.6	2.03%	0	-0.3	39	NAN
25	Feb_7_2011	18.94	21.26	20.43	20.51	20.52	20.38	20.25(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-17	-50	-2	-61	0.1	59%		-41.7	2.03%	0	-0.9	29	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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