Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 20, 2010

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $21.7200 (1.64%) ($21.4200 - $21.7700) on Mon. Dec. 20, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.96% (three month average)
RSI   97
Latest Price   $21.7200(1.64%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 2.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 10.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(45%)    SPY(43%)    QQQ(42%)    XLK(39%)    XLY(37%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -0.98% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-13%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(-0%)    GLD(1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.98% (StdDev 1.96%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1%

5 Day Moving Average   $20.97(3.58%)
10 Day Moving Average   $19.68(10.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $18.52(17.28%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   33.3%
Market Cap   $1.149b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 8.48% (three month std-dev: 1.96%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 9 Average positive next day return: 2.1%(67%) Average negative next day return: -1.52%(33%) Sample size 9 Average positive next three day return: 5.31%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -2.4%(33%) Sample size 9 Average positive next weekly return: 4.77%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.87%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_20_2010	17.46	18.52	19.68	20.97	21.01	21.38	21.72(1.64%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	116	130	45	330	0.19	66%	0.23	67.7	1.96%	0	2	97	0
2	Dec_17_2010	17.42	18.29	19.25	20.42	20.48	21	21.37(1.71%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	107	190	46	289	0.43	66%	0.23	64.8	1.96%	0	2.2	96	0
3	Dec_16_2010	17.38	18.07	18.85	19.87	19.89	20.64	21.01(1.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	108	270	60	252	0.26	66%	0.23	60.6	1.96%	0	2.4	95	0
4	Dec_15_2010	17.34	17.86	18.48	19.26	19.24	19.95	20.8(4.21%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.5	97	260	63	200	0.66	66%	0.17	51.9	1.98%	0	2.9	95	0
5	Dec_14_2010	17.31	17.65	18.14	18.65	18.61	19.13	19.96(5.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.7	75	190	48	156	0.43	62%	0.06	49.4	1.92%	0	3.1	95	0

6	Dec_13_2010	17.3	17.52	17.86	18.2	18.17	18.54	18.95(1.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.4	57	140	35	122	0.46	57%	0.06	54.2	1.81%	0	2.8	87	0
7	Dec_10_2010	17.29	17.43	17.69	17.91	17.89	18.08	18.65(4.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	43	70	27	91	0.24	57%	0.06	52	1.8%	0	3.1	72	0
8	Dec_9_2010	17.28	17.36	17.54	17.67	17.65	17.81	17.93(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	25	60	11	65	0.2	53%	0	53.9	1.73%	0	2	66	0
9	Dec_8_2010	17.28	17.35	17.47	17.58	17.52	17.7	17.75(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	22	60	10	59	0.07	53%	0	59.6	1.73%	0	1.5	66	0
10	Dec_7_2010	17.28	17.29	17.38	17.54	17.46	17.48	17.73(1.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	21	-10	10	52	0.11	53%	0.06	44	1.73%	0	1.5	66	0

11	Dec_6_2010	17.27	17.24	17.29	17.46	17.42	17.35	17.49(0.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	-40	-0	27	0.21	53%	0.06	34.5	1.75%	0	0.8	48	0
12	Dec_3_2010	17.26	17.22	17.27	17.43	17.4	17.43	17.46(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	8	10	2	27	0.21	53%	0.06	32.8	1.76%	0	0.8	54	0
13	Dec_2_2010	17.25	17.21	17.24	17.39	17.36	17.49	17.47(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	11	50	8	19	0.23	53%	0.06	30.2	1.76%	0	0.9	47	0
14	Dec_1_2010	17.24	17.19	17.2	17.34	17.27	17.37	17.56(1.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	14	30	17	5	0.18	58%	0.12	22.1	1.76%	0	1.3	46	0
15	Nov_30_2010	17.22	17.16	17.14	17.18	17.16	17.22	17.3(-0.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	5	20	9	-8	0.19	58%	0.17	4.5	1.83%	0	0.5	60	0

16	Nov_29_2010	17.19	17.14	17.16	17.1	17.03	17.17	17.35(0.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	2	50	4	-5	0.09	58%	0.17	-14.1	1.85%	0	0.8	59	0
17	Nov_26_2010	17.16	17.14	17.14	17.09	16.97	17.1	17.27(0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	4	30	6	-4	0.03	58%	0.23	-22.6	1.87%	0	0.5	53	0
18	Nov_24_2010	17.12	17.14	17.16	17.07	17	16.89	17.24(2.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	2	-60	3	-1	0.09	58%	0.18	-26.8	1.87%	0	0.4	51	0
19	Nov_23_2010	17.09	17.12	17.21	17.03	17.04	16.84	16.76(-0.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-10	-80	-13	-1	0.11	54%	-0.06	-32.3	1.85%	0	-1.3	48	0
20	Nov_22_2010	17.1	17.15	17.2	17.09	17.12	17.12	16.9(-2.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-9	10	-11	-3	0.1	54%	0.18	-31.2	1.88%	0	-0.9	48	0

21	Nov_19_2010	17.07	17.18	17.19	17.21	17.17	17.24	17.29(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	6	20	3	15	0.11	58%	0.12	-19.1	1.86%	0	0.4	58	0
22	Nov_18_2010	17.05	17.19	17.17	17.2	17.22	17.12	17.18(0.82%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-0	-40	-4	11	0.09	58%	0.12	-16.6	1.86%	0	-0	52	0
23	Nov_17_2010	17.03	17.2	17.17	17.27	17.24	17.1	17.04(0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-9	-60	-16	14	0.09	58%	0.12	-11.7	1.86%	0	-0.6	48	0
24	Nov_16_2010	17.01	17.22	17.18	17.41	17.37	17.31	17.03(-2.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.4	10	-30	3	32	0.2	58%	0.12	-1.2	1.87%	0	-0.7	47	0
25	Nov_15_2010	16.99	17.24	17.2	17.32	17.39	17.39	17.52(1.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	15	10	12	25	0.12	63%		-6.8	1.84%	0	1	53	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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