Trading Signals: DUST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. May. 10, 2011

Trading Signals: DUST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Dec. 8, 2010 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X ETF)
DUST latest price $26837.5000 (1.35%) ($26243.7500 - $26920.0000) on Tue. May. 10, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.54% (three month average)
RSI   66
Latest Price   $26837.5000(1.35%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DUST advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DUST advances 7.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DUST advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(-11%)    SHY(-12%)    TLT(-12%)    XLY(-12%)    XLK(-14%)
Factors Impacting DUST price   DUST will decline at least -1.77% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-73%)    EEM(-27%)    VWO(-26%)    REMX(-26%)    PCY(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.77% (StdDev 3.54%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $26818.75(0.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $25423.49(5.56%)
20 Day Moving Average   $24471.75(9.67%)
To recent high   -10.2%
To recent low   23.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. DUST is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. DUST price fluctuates within 6.48% (three month std-dev: 3.54%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 7.33%(75%) Average negative next day return: -0.83%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 6.62%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.68%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 6.31%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.41%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110610

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_10_2011	26868.42	24471.75	25423.49	26818.75	26877.42	26682.97	26837.5(1.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-1260	-40	-1521	-478	0	51%	0.02	74.2	3.54%	0	1.5	66	0
2	May_9_2011	26863.65	24270.8	25162.11	26597.5	26683.98	26907.03	26481.25(-3.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	870	70	986	523	0	51%	-0.01	67.5	3.55%	0	1.5	61	0
3	May_6_2011	26866.88	24033.89	24871.52	26141.25	26293.75	27071.88	27487.5(-0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	13410	220	15743	6412	0	51%	0.03	48.9	3.53%	0	2.3	67	0
4	May_5_2011	26859.98	23780.73	24361.56	25185	25462.11	26460.94	27618.75(7.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	18704	310	21983	8865	0	51%	0.06	28.2	3.56%	0	3	68	0
5	May_4_2011	26843.55	23509.93	23862.51	24338.75	24431.25	25515.63	25668.75(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.4	18070	320	21249	8533	0	47%	0.02	0.7	3.45%	0	2.3	58	0

6	May_3_2011	26837.62	23349.72	23602.62	23832.5	23742.97	24463.28	25731.25(6.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	16511	200	19422	7779	0	45%	0.02	-35.1	3.45%	0	2.9	59	0
7	May_2_2011	26831.11	23291.47	23388.38	23547.37	23370.93	23346.88	24200(6.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	3218	-30	3784	1519	0	42%	-0.05	-57.9	3.42%	0	1.2	58	0
8	Apr_29_2011	26845.23	23321.07	23300.61	23427.37	23480.27	23022.65	22706.25(-2.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-4755	-130	-5597	-2227	0	35%	-0.12	-58.5	3.34%	0	-0.8	59	0
9	Apr_28_2011	26876.35	23422.49	23365.61	23383.62	23483	23394.99	23387.5(1.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-5806	-10	-6834	-2720	0	35%	-0.1	-57.9	3.35%	0	-0	55	0
10	Apr_27_2011	26903.54	23503.09	23407.89	23284.87	23341.6	23937.89	23137.5(-4.81%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	6730	190	7912	3184	0	39%	-0.15	-54.5	3.35%	0	-0.4	55	0

11	Apr_26_2011	26942.77	23644.13	23464.59	23304.87	23069.49	23571.02	24305.62(2.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	11437	120	13447	5407	0	37%	-0.1	-48.4	3.38%	0	0.6	61	0
12	Apr_25_2011	26970.53	23724.47	23324.01	23220	22930.86	22745.31	23600(4.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	514	-90	601	251	0	37%	-0.13	-47.4	3.49%	0	-0.1	42	0
13	Apr_21_2011	27006.38	23805.83	23151.41	23185	23156.64	22567.97	22487.5(-1.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-8482	-180	-9975	-4004	0	35%	-0.18	-56.8	3.42%	0	-1	35	0
14	Apr_20_2011	27054.97	23931.23	23185.05	23343.75	23379.32	23116.41	22893.75(-1.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-9367	-70	-11014	-4427	0	35%	-0.17	-69.9	3.43%	0	-0.8	39	0
15	Apr_19_2011	27100.2	24027.49	23158.2	23537.5	23589.83	23745.31	23237.5(-2.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	1255	50	1485	563	0	35%	-0.16	-77.6	3.45%	0	-0.6	39	0

16	Apr_18_2011	27142.65	24188.12	23101.24	23630	23590.61	23642.24	23881.25(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	3308	10	3907	1511	0	33%	-0.13	-77	3.45%	0	-0.2	36	0
17	Apr_15_2011	27178.89	24323.93	23186.49	23443.75	23488.27	23434.35	23425(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	351	-10	433	106	0	33%	-0.15	-71.5	3.45%	0	-0.5	33	0
18	Apr_14_2011	27221.07	24550.59	23331.04	23108.75	23265.09	23538.99	23281.25(-2.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	2943	100	3486	1312	0	36%	-0.16	-64.8	3.48%	0	-0.7	39	0
19	Apr_13_2011	27265.84	24831.01	23471.13	22992.5	22855.75	23542.19	23862.5(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	8506	190	10033	3925	0	39%	-0.14	-57.9	3.51%	0	-0.5	45	0
20	Apr_12_2011	27304.96	25104.37	23581.72	22725.75	22601.02	22991.19	23700(3.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	11557	100	13624	5355	0	39%	-0.15	-53	3.62%	0	-0.6	45	0

21	Apr_11_2011	27346.88	25333.8	23805.04	22512	22327.47	22169.31	22950(5.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-2945	-70	-3433	-1479	0	38%	-0.19	-51.1	3.59%	0	-1.1	32	0
22	Apr_8_2011	27398.6	25554.29	24123.54	22927	22667.81	22210.86	21750(-4.19%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-8712	-180	-10221	-4186	0	35%	-0.24	-44.5	3.52%	0	-1.8	23	0
23	Apr_7_2011	27465.85	25838.53	24504.4	23594.5	23407.23	22485.62	22700(0.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-12254	-300	-14390	-5847	0	37%	-0.21	-35	3.51%	0	-1.6	21	0
24	Apr_6_2011	27523.27	26118.32	24748.46	24018.25	24024.46	23124.77	22528.75(-0.45%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-18793	-260	-22080	-8933	0	39%	-0.22	-25.8	3.51%	0	-1.9	18	0
25	Apr_5_2011	27584.18	26328.17	25000.88	24547.88	24599.58	24328.84	22631.25(-9.57%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-9997	-70	-11729	-4800	0	41%		-16	3.58%	0	-2.2	17	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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