Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jan. 4, 2017

Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Dollar Tree)
DLTR latest price $79.4500 (2.58%) ($77.5200 - $80.2300) on Wed. Jan. 4, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.73% (three month average)
RSI   27
Latest Price   $79.4500(2.58%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DLTR advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DLTR declines -4.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DLTR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(42%)    IWD(42%)    SDY(41%)    SPY(40%)    XLY(40%)
Factors Impacting DLTR price   DLTR will decline at least -0.865% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    UUP(-9%)    TLT(-9%)    IGOV(-3%)    GDXJ(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.865% (StdDev 1.73%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.5%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $70.31(-11.5%)
Resistance Level   $82.57
5 Day Moving Average   $77.82(2.09%)
10 Day Moving Average   $79.31(0.18%)
20 Day Moving Average   $82.57(-3.78%)
To recent high   -11.4%
To recent low   7.9%
Market Cap   $18.846b

Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed prices. It operates through Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The company offers selection of everyday basic products and its supplement these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. The merchandise mix consists of three types: Consumable, Variety categories and Seasonal merchandise. The Consumable merchandise includes candy and food, health and beauty care, and household consumables such as paper, plastics and household chemicals and in select stores, frozen and refrigerated food. The Variety categories merchandise includes toys, durable house wares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, soft lines and other items. The Seasonal goods include Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise. Dollar Tree was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.

$. DLTR price fluctuates within 4.74% (three month std-dev: 1.73%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 21 Average positive next day return: 2.91%(38%) Average negative next day return: -2.42%(62%) Sample size 21 Average positive next three day return: 5%(43%) Average negative next three day return: -2.08%(57%) Sample size 21 Average positive next weekly return: 4.47%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.93%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170204

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_4_2017	81.67	82.57	79.31	77.82	77.69	78.04	79.45(2.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-14	30	27	-138	3.26	41%	-0.2	-65	1.73%	0	-0.8	27	INF
2	Jan_3_2017	81.83	83	79.75	77.55	77.57	77.31	77.45(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-46	-20	-7	-163	2.59	37%	-0.41	-67.1	1.77%	0	-1.4	17	INF
3	Dec_30_2016	82.17	83.52	80.41	77.8	77.71	77.35	77.18(-0.21%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-66	-40	-28	-180	1.69	40%	-0.25	-68.8	1.77%	0	-1.6	14	INF
4	Dec_29_2016	82.38	84.02	81.25	78.23	78.2	77.83	77.34(-0.42%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-78	-30	-43	-182	1.85	38%	-0.25	-73.9	1.79%	0	-1.8	18	INF
5	Dec_28_2016	82.59	84.58	82.01	79.57	79.22	78.07	77.67(-0.58%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-87	-110	-59	-170	1.68	38%	-0.23	-70.5	1.82%	0	-2	18	INF

6	Dec_27_2016	82.78	85.19	82.87	81.06	80.74	78.56	78.12(-0.74%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-112	-200	-95	-162	2.43	38%	-0.39	-54.7	1.82%	0	-2.2	18	INF
7	Dec_23_2016	83.1	85.79	83.7	82.29	82.49	80.38	78.7(-0.77%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.3	-117	-170	-106	-149	2.27	38%	-0.22	-38.1	1.81%	0	-2.5	18	INF
8	Dec_22_2016	83.28	86.34	84.63	83.39	83.79	82.92	79.31(-5.65%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.7	-87	-60	-77	-116	5.69	38%	-0.2	-19.6	1.81%	0	-3	22	INF
9	Dec_21_2016	83.45	86.84	85.45	84.66	84.63	84.6	84.06(-1.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-23	-0	-8	-66	1.75	44%	-0.16	14.6	1.66%	0	-1.6	40	INF
10	Dec_20_2016	83.58	87.08	85.82	84.8	84.87	84.6	85.09(0.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-21	-10	-6	-65	1.35	44%	-0.14	43.3	1.65%	0	-1.2	37	INF

11	Dec_19_2016	83.7	86.96	86.1	85.01	85.04	84.66	84.27(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-39	-30	-26	-76	1.76	44%	-0.14	48.5	1.65%	0	-1.4	28	INF
12	Dec_16_2016	83.82	86.89	86.49	85.37	85.47	85.08	84.2(-1.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-40	-30	-29	-74	3.87	44%	-0.14	57.5	1.66%	0	-1.2	28	INF
13	Dec_15_2016	83.94	86.81	86.87	86.09	85.97	85.42	85.7(1.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-36	-50	-27	-64	2.21	46%	-0.12	70.3	1.65%	0	-0.5	35	INF
14	Dec_14_2016	84.04	86.59	86.97	86.37	86.5	85.86	84.72(-1.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-46	-50	-37	-72	3.1	48%	-0.14	72.8	1.64%	0	-0.7	32	INF
15	Dec_13_2016	84.16	86.36	87.33	86.99	86.95	86.53	86.16(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-37	-40	-30	-57	2.28	47%	-0.12	74.8	1.64%	0	-0.1	37	INF

16	Dec_12_2016	84.26	86.01	87.67	87.35	87.32	87.14	86.09(-1.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-19	-20	-19	-17	2.26	47%	-0.13	73.2	1.68%	0	0	68	INF
17	Dec_9_2016	84.37	85.64	88.02	87.35	87.68	87.38	87.76(0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	1	-30	-7	26	1.68	49%	-0.08	74.8	1.66%	0	0.5	74	INF
18	Dec_8_2016	84.44	85.14	88.16	87.77	87.87	87.51	87.12(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	4	-30	-12	53	3.24	49%	-0.09	73.2	1.66%	0	0.5	74	INF
19	Dec_7_2016	84.52	84.62	88.34	87.66	87.84	87.99	87.84(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	18	20	-5	87	3.8	49%	-0.09	68.3	1.66%	0	0.7	79	INF
20	Dec_6_2016	84.6	84.04	88.43	87.72	87.65	88.23	87.93(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	40	40	9	133	2.28	49%	-0.08	66.6	1.66%	0	0.8	82	INF

21	Dec_5_2016	84.67	83.44	87.9	88.07	87.78	87.69	88.2(0.5%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	44	-20	6	159	3.48	49%	-0.08	66.6	1.66%	0	0.9	84	INF
22	Dec_2_2016	84.74	82.73	87.33	88.35	88.23	87.08	87.76(1.37%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	15	-100	-36	169	2.11	49%	-0.08	64.4	1.68%	0	0.9	84	INF
23	Dec_1_2016	84.81	82.06	86.77	88.63	88.7	87.87	86.57(-1.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	2	-60	-61	192	4.34	49%	-0.09	64.8	1.67%	0	0.8	84	INF
24	Nov_30_2016	84.89	81.5	86.23	89.09	89.21	89.38	88.16(-1.68%)	UT	HoldLong	50	-0.2	60	20	-5	255	4.23	47%	-0.07	66.3	1.65%	0	1.2	92	INF
25	Nov_29_2016	84.95	80.83	85.37	89.19	89.18	89.53	89.67(0.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	105	30	40	300	3.04	49%		67.7	1.65%	0	1.6	0	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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