Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Nov. 17, 2016

Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Dollar Tree)
DLTR latest price $81.6500 (1.38%) ($79.7300 - $81.9250) on Thu. Nov. 17, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.77% (three month average)
RSI   76
Latest Price   $81.6500(1.38%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DLTR advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DLTR advances 3.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DLTR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(41%)    IWD(41%)    SDY(41%)    SPY(40%)    XLY(40%)
Factors Impacting DLTR price   DLTR will decline at least -0.885% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    UUP(-9%)    TLT(-8%)    IGOV(-3%)    GDXJ(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.885% (StdDev 1.77%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $79.5(2.7%)
10 Day Moving Average   $77.72(5.06%)
20 Day Moving Average   $76.57(6.63%)
To recent high   -14.8%
To recent low   10.9%
Market Cap   $19.367b

Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed prices. It operates through Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The company offers selection of everyday basic products and its supplement these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. The merchandise mix consists of three types: Consumable, Variety categories and Seasonal merchandise. The Consumable merchandise includes candy and food, health and beauty care, and household consumables such as paper, plastics and household chemicals and in select stores, frozen and refrigerated food. The Variety categories merchandise includes toys, durable house wares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, soft lines and other items. The Seasonal goods include Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise. Dollar Tree was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.

$. DLTR price fluctuates within 2.61% (three month std-dev: 1.77%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 29 Average positive next day return: 1.68%(41%) Average negative next day return: -0.94%(59%) Sample size 29 Average positive next three day return: 1.44%(55%) Average negative next three day return: -1.58%(45%) Sample size 29 Average positive next weekly return: 2.29%(45%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.75%(55%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161217

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_17_2016	85.48	76.57	77.72	79.5	79.57	80.57	81.65(1.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	73	90	55	128	3.45	26%	-0.15	43.7	1.77%	0	2.5	76	INF
2	Nov_16_2016	85.61	76.25	76.94	78.61	78.78	79.56	80.54(1.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	69	80	56	108	3.81	26%	-0.14	32.2	1.76%	0	2.6	76	INF
3	Nov_15_2016	85.73	76.03	76.4	77.71	77.93	78.57	79.17(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	53	70	45	77	2.92	26%	-0.16	18.6	1.75%	0	2.4	57	INF
4	Nov_14_2016	85.87	75.87	75.95	77.04	76.83	78	78.34(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	45	100	41	55	2.88	26%	-0.15	1.4	1.74%	0	2.2	59	INF
5	Nov_11_2016	86	75.76	75.64	76.48	76.15	77.29	77.81(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	66	90	71	52	1.96	26%	-0.17	-21.1	1.74%	0	2	56	INF

6	Nov_10_2016	86.15	75.7	75.36	75.64	75.51	75.66	77.2(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	36	10	42	17	3.32	30%	-0.17	-46	1.73%	0	1.4	55	INF
7	Nov_9_2016	86.3	75.73	75.07	75.02	74.75	75	76.04(0.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	1	-14	10	-10	-26	3.49	30%	-0.2	-61.7	1.75%	0	0.3	50	INF
8	Nov_8_2016	86.47	75.79	75.11	74.88	74.85	75.36	75.81(0.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	18	50	29	-14	2.01	30%	-0.18	-54.1	1.75%	0	0	45	INF
9	Nov_7_2016	86.63	75.86	75.1	74.69	74.75	74.51	75.54(2.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-5	-20	4	-31	1.87	30%	-0.2	-52.2	1.75%	0	-0.3	46	INF
10	Nov_4_2016	86.8	75.97	75.13	74.7	74.8	74.33	73.62(-0.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-35	-40	-31	-48	1.42	25%	-0.21	-55.8	1.71%	0	-1.9	36	INF

11	Nov_3_2016	86.98	76.19	75.35	75.01	75.21	74.99	74.07(-1.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-18	-10	-11	-38	1.18	25%	-0.2	-55.1	1.71%	0	-1.8	35	INF
12	Nov_2_2016	87.15	76.19	75.54	75.09	75.27	75.27	75.36(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-20	10	-11	-47	1.11	27%	-0.17	-55.2	1.71%	0	-0.9	34	INF
13	Nov_1_2016	87.3	76.39	75.67	75.38	75.35	75.44	74.88(-0.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-11	10	-2	-39	1.41	27%	-0.18	-66.4	1.71%	0	-1.4	37	INF
14	Oct_31_2016	87.46	76.48	75.82	75.57	75.62	75.26	75.55(0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-11	-30	-2	-39	1.4	27%	-0.17	-71.5	1.71%	0	-0.8	41	INF
15	Oct_28_2016	87.61	76.67	75.9	75.65	75.66	75.27	75.21(1.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-34	-40	-27	-54	1.59	27%	-0.19	-67.7	1.71%	0	-1.1	36	INF

16	Oct_27_2016	87.78	76.85	76.09	75.75	75.91	75.99	74.45(-3.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-17	10	-6	-48	2.33	27%	-0.2	-73.1	1.71%	0	-2	31	INF
17	Oct_26_2016	87.96	77.01	76.46	75.75	75.93	76.05	76.8(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-5	10	6	-37	2.34	29%	-0.16	-79.5	1.67%	0	-0.2	39	INF
18	Oct_25_2016	88.1	77.13	76.52	76.03	75.95	75.83	75.82(-0.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-12	-10	-5	-33	1.65	29%	-0.17	-71.1	1.66%	0	-0.9	57	INF
19	Oct_24_2016	88.25	77.35	76.66	76.11	76.16	75.81	75.97(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-18	-30	-13	-31	1.72	29%	-0.18	-64.6	1.66%	0	-0.9	49	INF
20	Oct_21_2016	88.41	77.55	76.85	76.21	76.36	76.06	75.71(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-27	-20	-23	-39	2.18	29%	-0.17	-62.1	1.68%	0	-1.2	36	INF

21	Oct_20_2016	88.56	77.76	77.08	76.48	76.64	76.51	75.87(-1.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-21	-10	-17	-34	1.66	29%	-0.17	-60.5	1.68%	0	-1.2	39	INF
22	Oct_19_2016	88.71	77.97	77.31	76.95	76.94	76.65	76.76(0.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-13	-30	-11	-17	1.63	29%	-0.16	-58.9	1.68%	0	-0.8	49	INF
23	Oct_18_2016	88.85	78.13	77.18	77.1	77.25	76.76	76.25(-0.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-25	-40	-21	-36	2.09	29%	-0.15	-61.5	1.67%	0	-1.3	41	INF
24	Oct_17_2016	88.98	78.3	77.21	77.29	77.44	77.24	76.44(-0.84%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-29	-10	-22	-48	1.3	29%	-0.15	-60.8	1.69%	0	-1.3	38	INF
25	Oct_14_2016	89.11	78.49	77.51	77.59	77.59	77.73	77.09(-1.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-10	10	-2	-35	1.57	29%		-60.9	1.69%	0	-0.9	41	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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