Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Sep. 21, 2015

Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Dollar Tree)
DLTR latest price $67.8500 (1.8%) ($65.7900 - $68.3600) on Mon. Sep. 21, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.89% (three month average)
RSI   28
Latest Price   $67.8500(1.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DLTR advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DLTR declines -1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DLTR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(41%)    SDY(41%)    XRT(41%)    IWD(40%)    SPY(40%)
Factors Impacting DLTR price   DLTR will decline at least -0.945% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-9%)    UUP(-6%)    GDXJ(-4%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.945% (StdDev 1.89%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.1%

Resistance Level   $69.66
5 Day Moving Average   $67.26(0.88%)
10 Day Moving Average   $67.08(1.15%)
20 Day Moving Average   $69.66(-2.6%)
To recent high   -17.7%
To recent low   3.8%
Market Cap   $16.094b

Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed prices. It operates through Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The company offers selection of everyday basic products and its supplement these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. The merchandise mix consists of three types: Consumable, Variety categories and Seasonal merchandise. The Consumable merchandise includes candy and food, health and beauty care, and household consumables such as paper, plastics and household chemicals and in select stores, frozen and refrigerated food. The Variety categories merchandise includes toys, durable house wares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, soft lines and other items. The Seasonal goods include Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise. Dollar Tree was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.

$. DLTR price fluctuates within 5.76% (three month std-dev: 1.89%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -2.94%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 1.1%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 2.37%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151021

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_21_2015	76.88	69.66	67.08	67.26	67.22	66.99	67.85(1.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-14	-30	-1	-52	3.89	37%	-0.13	-68.4	1.89%	0	-0.5	28	INF
2	Sep_18_2015	76.98	70.06	67.09	66.75	66.95	67.49	66.65(-1.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-20	70	6	-99	6.4	37%	-0.13	-70.3	1.87%	0	-0.8	24	INF
3	Sep_17_2015	77.08	70.72	67.13	66.72	66.65	67.46	67.83(0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-1	80	41	-127	2.69	39%	-0.13	-61.7	1.87%	0	-0.6	25	INF
4	Sep_16_2015	77.18	71.34	67.09	66.36	66.19	66.42	67.71(2.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-34	20	17	-185	2.74	39%	-0.16	-56.2	1.88%	0	-0.7	24	INF
5	Sep_15_2015	77.3	71.9	67.25	66.41	66.03	65.84	66.24(1.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-71	-40	-22	-219	3.26	36%	-0.19	-53.3	1.86%	0	-1.1	35	INF

6	Sep_14_2015	77.45	72.52	68.18	66.92	66.71	65.96	65.34(-1.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-72	-90	-28	-202	2.8	36%	-0.21	-51.2	1.85%	0	-1.4	32	INF
7	Sep_11_2015	77.61	73.16	69.27	67.47	67.47	66.22	66.46(0.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-81	-130	-43	-196	3.68	36%	-0.19	-50.4	1.84%	0	-1.3	29	INF
8	Sep_10_2015	77.76	73.72	70.27	67.58	67.94	67.47	66.06(-2.77%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-84	-30	-42	-208	5.87	38%	-0.18	-52.7	1.84%	0	-1.6	24	INF
9	Sep_9_2015	77.9	74.31	71.38	67.88	68.15	68.72	67.94(-1.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-47	70	4	-199	5.05	40%	-0.18	-56.2	1.82%	0	-1.4	25	INF
10	Sep_8_2015	78.04	74.82	71.93	68.22	68.13	68.4	68.79(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-63	20	-10	-222	3.78	40%	-0.15	-57.7	1.82%	0	-1.4	30	INF

11	Sep_4_2015	78.16	75.31	72.45	69.72	68.68	67.58	68.09(1.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-110	-160	-69	-233	6.33	39%	-0.17	-52.2	1.81%	0	-1.8	31	INF
12	Sep_3_2015	78.29	75.8	73.3	71.45	70.75	67.87	67(-0.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-149	-310	-123	-225	6.73	41%	-0.18	-46.3	1.79%	0	-2.4	31	INF
13	Sep_2_2015	78.43	76.37	74.64	73.4	73.14	69.78	67.59(-2.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-171	-330	-166	-185	10.34	41%	-0.18	-38.5	1.81%	0	-2.8	33	INF
14	Sep_1_2015	78.57	76.96	76	75.35	75.02	73.63	69.65(-8.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.4	-110	-140	-111	-106	12.31	47%	-0.15	-26.6	1.78%	0	-3	36	INF
15	Aug_31_2015	78.69	77.41	77.02	76.06	76.23	76.49	76.26(-0.61%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	7	30	22	-38	4.76	57%	-0.09	-27.1	1.46%	0	-0.7	47	INF

16	Aug_28_2015	78.76	77.48	77.24	75.55	75.74	76.4	76.73(-0.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	16	70	36	-46	2.47	55%	-0.08	-36	1.47%	0	-0.4	47	INF
17	Aug_27_2015	78.82	77.55	77.35	75.47	74.78	75.96	76.79(-0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-10	80	6	-59	5.42	55%	-0.09	-38.9	1.47%	0	-0.4	50	INF
18	Aug_26_2015	78.89	77.6	77.35	76.19	75.3	75.08	77.34(5.71%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	2	-60	15	-37	2.94	52%	-0.04	-29.7	1.48%	0	-0.2	50	INF
19	Aug_25_2015	78.92	77.61	77.41	76.9	76.43	73.6	73.16(-0.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-118	-280	-129	-84	2.55	45%	-0.1	-22.8	1.32%	0	-2.6	32	INF
20	Aug_24_2015	79	77.88	77.91	78.15	77.86	75.52	73.71(-3.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-3.2	-162	-220	-193	-70	4.27	45%	-0.06	-8.5	1.33%	0	-3	38	INF

21	Aug_21_2015	79.05	78.11	78.4	79.1	79.38	79.26	76.35(-5.01%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.7	-25	0	-42	25	3.97	51%	-0.06	-2.3	1.28%	0	-1.7	46	INF
22	Aug_20_2015	79.1	78.23	78.53	79.39	79.34	80.2	80.38(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	64	70	60	76	2.5	56%	-0.01	-9.2	1.18%	0	2.3	62	INF
23	Aug_19_2015	79.11	78.11	78.24	78.78	78.66	79.49	80.92(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.5	71	70	74	61	3.02	56%	0	-51.9	1.2%	0	3.3	68	INF
24	Aug_18_2015	79.11	78.11	77.97	78.06	77.99	78.49	79.37(1.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	45	40	49	31	1.21	53%	-0.04	-110.3	1.18%	0	2	62	INF
25	Aug_17_2015	79.14	78	77.79	77.72	77.46	77.83	78.48(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	15	20	18	5	1.14	53%		-100	1.18%	0	0.5	51	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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