Trading Signals: COST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 23, 2014

Trading Signals: COST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Costco Wholesale)
COST latest price $127.9814 (0.66%) ($127.5552 - $128.7094) on Tue. Dec. 23, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.99% (three month average)
RSI   52
Latest Price   $127.9814(0.66%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   COST advances 1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   COST declines -0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support COST advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLP(60%)    SPY(59%)    QQQ(58%)    XLK(55%)    XLY(54%)
Factors Impacting COST price   COST will decline at least -0.495% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-10%)    UUP(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GDXJ(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.495% (StdDev 0.99%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $126.08(1.51%)
10 Day Moving Average   $124.82(2.53%)
20 Day Moving Average   $125.41(2.05%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   17.5%
Market Cap   $56.507b

Costco Wholesale Corp. engages in the operation of membership warehouses. Its product categories include food and sundries, hardlines, fresh foods, softlines, and ancillary. It operates through the following segments: Unites States Operations, Canadian Operations, and Other International Operations. The company was founded by James D. Sinegal and Jeffrey H. Brotman in 1983 and is headquartered in Issaquah, WA.

$. COST price fluctuates within 1.41% (three month std-dev: 0.99%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0.29%(25%) Average negative next day return: -0.34%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 1.89%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.37%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 2.62%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.11%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150123

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_23_2014	115.48	125.41	124.82	126.08	126.39	127.4	127.98(0.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	98	60	118	38	1.46	67%	0.21	30.5	0.99%	0	1.5	52	INF
2	Dec_22_2014	115.24	125.21	124.66	124.86	125.04	126.27	127.15(1.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	68	70	92	-6	1.78	67%	0.2	14.8	0.99%	0	1.1	49	INF
3	Dec_19_2014	115.01	125.05	124.54	123.97	123.99	125.37	125.87(0.15%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.2	80	80	113	-21	4.03	66%	0.19	3	0.99%	0	0.5	49	INF
4	Dec_18_2014	114.79	124.94	124.63	123.28	123.23	123.81	125.68(1.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	40	30	71	-53	2.9	66%	0.18	-6.7	0.99%	0	0.4	48	INF
5	Dec_17_2014	114.58	124.87	124.72	123.25	122.92	122.6	123.7(1.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-41	-30	-27	-84	2.43	64%	0.17	0	0.97%	0	-0.7	51	INF

6	Dec_16_2014	114.39	124.88	125.02	123.42	123.63	122.64	121.91(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-85	-50	-83	-89	2.47	63%	0.16	9	0.96%	0	-1.8	49	INF
7	Dec_15_2014	114.21	124.96	125.55	124.43	124.73	123.24	122.69(0.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-98	-80	-111	-60	2.46	63%	0.17	30.7	0.96%	0	-1.4	48	INF
8	Dec_12_2014	114.02	125	125.92	125.17	125.6	124.62	122.41(-2.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-100	-40	-122	-35	3.67	63%	0.16	46.8	0.96%	0	-1.6	47	INF
9	Dec_11_2014	113.84	125.06	126.33	126.12	126.34	126.21	125.55(0.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-17	-0	-36	41	2.4	69%	0.18	72.1	0.9%	0	0.3	61	INF
10	Dec_10_2014	113.63	124.87	126.22	126.41	126.66	126.58	124.52(-1.95%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	14	0	-3	63	4.92	69%	0.19	72.6	0.9%	0	-0.2	53	INF

11	Dec_9_2014	113.42	124.73	126.14	126.41	126.7	126.47	127(0.5%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	4	-20	-20	74	2.09	75%	0.21	75	0.86%	0	1.2	69	INF
12	Dec_8_2014	113.18	124.48	125.87	126.84	126.8	126.75	126.37(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	14	-0	-10	85	1.95	75%	0.19	82.6	0.86%	0	1	70	INF
13	Dec_5_2014	112.96	124.26	125.64	126.78	126.81	126.93	127.18(0.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	34	10	12	100	1.2	76%	0.21	92	0.86%	0	1.6	76	INF
14	Dec_4_2014	112.72	123.97	125.29	126.58	126.71	126.85	126.98(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	49	10	30	104	1.32	79%	0.2	101.4	0.87%	0	1.7	73	INF
15	Dec_3_2014	112.49	123.66	125.01	126	126.41	126.69	126.69(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	54	30	39	99	1.8	79%	0.2	105.6	0.94%	0	1.7	78	INF

16	Dec_2_2014	112.27	123.37	124.69	125.32	125.76	126.57	127.01(0.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	66	60	55	99	1.77	79%	0.21	112.9	0.94%	0	2.1	80	INF
17	Dec_1_2014	112.03	122.96	124.27	124.74	125.06	126.14	126.05(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	94	70	91	102	1.95	79%	0.19	109.9	0.94%	0	1.8	73	INF
18	Nov_28_2014	111.82	122.57	123.95	124.34	124.42	124.95	126.18(1.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	76	30	71	89	1.44	79%	0.26	103.9	0.94%	0	1.9	73	INF
19	Nov_26_2014	111.53	122.16	123.63	123.83	124.08	123.99	124.07(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	21	0	8	60	1.63	78%	0.19	88.8	0.92%	0	0.9	69	INF
20	Nov_25_2014	111.32	121.81	123.39	123.88	123.98	123.89	123.29(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	1	-0	-17	56	1.87	78%	0.18	83	0.92%	0	0.6	69	INF

21	Nov_24_2014	111.12	121.47	123.22	123.94	124	124.17	124.12(0.06%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	31	10	16	75	1.65	78%	0.13	78.5	0.91%	0	1	76	INF
22	Nov_21_2014	110.98	121.07	123	123.7	123.82	124.07	124.05(0.34%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	49	20	35	92	1.85	78%	0.19	76	0.91%	0	1.1	83	INF
23	Nov_20_2014	110.77	120.65	122.79	123.48	123.31	123.82	123.63(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	41	20	21	101	1.52	78%	0.2	81.3	0.91%	0	1	84	INF
24	Nov_19_2014	110.55	120.26	122.57	123.39	123.14	123.56	124.31(0.57%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	81	20	63	135	1.36	79%	0.2	89.8	0.91%	0	1.4	90	INF
25	Nov_18_2014	110.33	119.82	122.22	122.84	122.82	122.79	123.6(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	52	-0	27	126	1.57	79%		95.1	0.91%	0	1.3	91	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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