Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Sep. 20, 2011

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $94.2500 (-2.87%) ($94.2300 - $97.8000) on Tue. Sep. 20, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.49% (three month average)
RSI   55
Latest Price   $94.2500(-2.87%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 4.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(65%)    SPY(65%)    EWG(59%)    PEJ(58%)    EEM(55%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -1.745% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-31%)    TIP(-8%)    SHY(-8%)    IGOV(0%)    GLD(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.745% (StdDev 3.49%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -3%

5 Day Moving Average   $96.23(-2.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $93.09(1.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $90.69(3.93%)
To recent high   -15%
To recent low   17.9%
Market Cap   $13.911b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 4.52% (three month std-dev: 3.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 1.67%(57%) Average negative next day return: -1.53%(43%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 2.15%(29%) Average negative next three day return: -2.58%(71%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 3.52%(43%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.4%(57%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20111020

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_20_2011	99.43	90.69	93.09	96.23	96.78	95.96	94.25(-2.87%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	10	-40	-9	66	3.54	56%	-0.24	68.8	3.49%	0	0.9	55	0
2	Sep_19_2011	99.67	90.01	92.28	95.82	96.2	97.13	97.03(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	80	16	65	3.44	56%	-0.24	42.9	3.48%	0	1.5	60	0
3	Sep_16_2011	99.91	89.16	91.25	93.83	94.96	97.61	97.84(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	71	230	72	66	4.42	56%	-0.2	15.5	3.47%	0	1.8	66	0
4	Sep_15_2011	100.11	88.41	90.46	91.89	92.01	95.26	97.86(3.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	67	250	71	55	4.97	54%	-0.22	-4	3.47%	0	2.1	68	0
5	Sep_14_2011	100.33	88.04	89.85	90.32	89.82	92.32	94.17(2.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	60	180	64	47	5	54%	-0.23	-9.3	3.47%	0	1.5	62	0

6	Sep_13_2011	100.56	87.95	89.46	89.59	88.96	88.75	92.2(5.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	-40	33	39	6.5	54%	-0.16	-11.7	3.48%	0	1.1	64	0
7	Sep_12_2011	100.72	88.08	89.25	88.25	88.53	87.32	87.06(-1.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-11	-90	-22	22	3.59	51%	-0.14	-6.7	3.4%	0	-0.2	65	0
8	Sep_9_2011	100.86	88.42	89.33	88.21	87.95	89.18	88.16(-2.06%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	4	90	-9	42	4.94	49%	-0.21	-4.6	3.43%	0	-0.1	67	0
9	Sep_8_2011	101.07	88.59	89.09	88.73	87.65	89.75	90.01(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	45	130	36	70	3.88	48%	-0.19	-2.6	3.42%	0	0.3	61	0
10	Sep_7_2011	101.26	88.41	88.76	89.31	88.17	86.73	90.5(5.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	21	-150	9	57	3.26	48%	-0.15	-14.1	3.47%	0	0.5	48	0

11	Sep_6_2011	101.41	88.42	88.15	89.4	89.05	85.56	85.54(-1.47%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-58	-290	-80	7	3.28	45%	-0.22	-21.5	3.39%	0	-0.6	40	0
12	Sep_2_2011	101.63	88.36	87.7	90.39	90.61	89.61	86.82(-4.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-38	-70	-51	1	3.23	46%	-0.19	-34.7	3.37%	0	-0.3	38	0
13	Sep_1_2011	101.82	88.62	87.09	90.52	91.29	92.55	90.76(-2.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	31	120	37	11	2.72	46%	-0.15	-45.4	3.34%	0	0.5	44	0
14	Aug_31_2011	101.97	88.71	86.34	89.39	89.59	91.61	92.92(2.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	31	160	46	-14	3.9	46%	-0.13	-55.3	3.37%	0	0.8	51	0
15	Aug_30_2011	102.1	89.05	86.1	88.12	87.95	90.04	90.98(0.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	40	160	58	-14	2.68	46%	-0.17	-61.7	3.36%	0	0.3	57	0

16	Aug_29_2011	102.27	89.39	86.23	86.76	86.64	87.56	90.46(3.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	36	70	56	-26	2.41	46%	-0.19	-68.1	3.39%	0	0.2	50	0
17	Aug_26_2011	102.46	89.98	86.65	84.66	84.76	85.86	87.47(2.75%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	5	90	21	-42	3.1	44%	-0.22	-70.9	3.36%	0	-0.3	56	0
18	Aug_25_2011	102.69	90.79	87.27	83.14	83.93	85.71	85.13(-1.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	21	180	44	-47	2.63	46%	-0.25	-72	3.34%	0	-0.7	45	0
19	Aug_24_2011	102.95	91.78	87.93	82.79	82.69	83.65	86.58(2.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-5	80	15	-65	2.84	46%	-0.23	-70.9	3.35%	0	-0.6	45	0
20	Aug_23_2011	103.19	92.73	87.94	83.86	82.68	82.15	84.15(5.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-48	-90	-31	-99	3.26	45%	-0.27	-63.1	3.33%	0	-1	37	0

21	Aug_22_2011	103.47	94.03	88.65	85.76	85.36	81.73	79.95(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-83	-310	-73	-113	3.75	42%	-0.31	-56	3.26%	0	-1.6	36	0
22	Aug_19_2011	103.79	95.38	89.18	89.01	88.43	83.22	79.91(-4.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-140	-430	-140	-140	4.78	41%	-0.29	-48	3.28%	0	-1.8	33	0
23	Aug_18_2011	104.09	96.76	90.5	91.92	92.02	89	83.34(-9.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-108	-230	-105	-118	7.75	43%	-0.26	-41.3	3.25%	0	-1.6	34	0
24	Aug_17_2011	104.36	98	91.54	93.63	94.46	93.64	91.93(-1.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-28	-30	-8	-89	3.84	45%	-0.15	-36.6	3.05%	0	-0.8	38	0
25	Aug_16_2011	104.52	98.73	92.4	92.49	93.7	95.05	93.68(-2.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-13	140	16	-101	3.44	45%		-40.3	3.07%	0	-0.7	39	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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