Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Apr. 28, 2011

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $117.7500 (-1.12%) ($117.1500 - $119.8400) on Thu. Apr. 28, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.86% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $117.7500(-1.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 3.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(67%)    SPY(66%)    EWG(62%)    PEJ(60%)    EEM(58%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -0.93% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    TIP(-10%)    SHY(-8%)    GLD(1%)    IGOV(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.93% (StdDev 1.86%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $114.07(3.23%)
10 Day Moving Average   $110.03(7.02%)
20 Day Moving Average   $109.48(7.55%)
To recent high   -1.1%
To recent low   20.7%
Market Cap   $17.38b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 3.82% (three month std-dev: 1.86%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 1%(36%) Average negative next day return: -1.1%(64%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 1.59%(73%) Average negative next three day return: -2.44%(27%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 2.11%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.64%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110528

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_28_2011	107.46	109.48	110.03	114.07	115.16	118.07	117.75(-1.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	106	210	92	146	2.27	64%	0.13	51	1.86%	0	2	61	0
2	Apr_27_2011	107.32	109.02	108.78	112.15	112.84	116.72	119.08(2.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	171	260	182	137	3.34	64%	0.12	51.9	1.93%	0	2.7	64	0
3	Apr_26_2011	107.19	108.4	107.34	109.4	110.26	112.26	116.39(7.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	134	150	155	69	6.04	64%	0.11	49.1	1.91%	0	2.7	58	0
4	Apr_25_2011	107.07	107.79	106.33	106.69	107.57	108.96	108.2(-0.68%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	34	120	55	-31	1.94	57%	0.07	32.7	1.68%	0	0.2	40	0
5	Apr_21_2011	106.99	107.63	106.35	106.07	106.04	108.27	108.94(0.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	57	150	88	-37	1.91	54%	0.08	32.4	1.67%	0	0.5	40	0

6	Apr_20_2011	106.9	107.38	106.41	105.35	105.11	106.17	108.15(2.68%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1	52	60	86	-49	2.55	51%	0.1	29.5	1.71%	0	0.3	45	0
7	Apr_19_2011	106.79	107.13	106.56	104.9	104.43	103.81	105.33(2.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-36	-60	-15	-97	1.9	46%	0.08	29	1.72%	0	-0.6	35	0
8	Apr_18_2011	106.7	106.99	107.1	104.98	104.81	104.05	102.82(-2.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-66	-60	-53	-103	2.68	43%	0.04	31.6	1.7%	0	-1.4	35	0
9	Apr_15_2011	106.66	107.02	107.92	105.9	105.55	105.05	105.13(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-43	-40	-36	-65	2.16	46%	-0.01	44.7	1.69%	0	-0.6	56	0
10	Apr_14_2011	106.67	106.81	108.54	106.65	106.2	105.58	105.32(-0.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-43	-50	-45	-36	2.17	46%	0.07	49.4	1.71%	0	-0.4	58	0

11	Apr_13_2011	106.6	106.58	109	107.62	107.42	106.04	105.89(0.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-37	-100	-48	-3	1.95	46%	0.1	54.3	1.7%	0	-0.2	63	0
12	Apr_12_2011	106.49	106.28	109.4	108.49	108.33	106.82	105.72(-1.58%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-64	-100	-91	17	2.94	46%	0.09	57.1	1.71%	0	-0.1	66	0
13	Apr_11_2011	106.39	106.02	109.66	109.54	109.6	108.8	107.42(-1.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-20	-50	-50	72	1.74	46%	0.13	59.7	1.7%	0	0.3	75	0
14	Apr_8_2011	106.25	105.56	109.48	110.22	110.32	109.83	108.89(-1.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	4	-30	-30	104	1.85	46%	0.14	60.3	1.69%	0	0.7	76	0
15	Apr_7_2011	106.1	105.07	109.1	110.7	110.76	110.4	110.17(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	21	-20	-18	136	1.53	46%	0.18	58.7	1.69%	0	1.1	86	0

16	Apr_6_2011	105.91	104.49	108.5	110.59	111.15	110.81	110.26(-0.62%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	38	-10	-2	156	1.84	43%	0.19	54.6	1.69%	0	1.2	86	0
17	Apr_5_2011	105.71	103.97	107.77	110.45	110.82	111.12	110.95(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	44	30	2	169	2.44	43%	0.16	55.8	1.72%	0	1.5	91	0
18	Apr_4_2011	105.54	103.4	106.86	109.79	110.47	111.49	110.83(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	95	80	63	190	1.9	43%	0.16	55.4	1.73%	0	1.7	84	0
19	Apr_1_2011	105.37	102.82	106.03	108.61	109.18	110.52	111.3(1.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	105	100	75	193	3.43	43%	0.16	50.9	1.72%	0	2.2	88	0
20	Mar_31_2011	105.2	102.33	104.88	107.26	107.5	109.45	109.62(0.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	104	130	80	177	1.96	43%	0.15	47.6	1.73%	0	2.1	80	0

21	Mar_30_2011	105.04	101.99	103.9	106.09	106.3	107.85	109.57(1.8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	124	110	107	173	2.57	43%	0.16	48.1	1.73%	0	2.5	80	0
22	Mar_29_2011	104.87	101.49	102.82	104.71	104.86	105.55	107.63(2.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	74	50	56	126	2.83	41%	0.11	42.6	1.71%	0	2.5	70	0
23	Mar_28_2011	104.75	101.08	102.01	103.52	103.75	104.75	104.92(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	51	70	35	98	2.23	38%	0.09	28.7	1.68%	0	1.9	65	0
24	Mar_25_2011	104.66	100.87	101.28	103.05	103.06	104.16	104.54(0.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	71	80	63	95	2.05	38%	0.09	3.2	1.67%	0	2	66	0
25	Mar_24_2011	104.57	100.73	100.69	102.13	102.48	102.76	103.77(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	48	30	45	58	2.55	38%		-36.9	1.68%	0	1.8	51	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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