Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Mar. 16, 2016

Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Caterpillar)
CAT latest price $68.1946 (2.62%) ($66.2315 - $68.3505) on Wed. Mar. 16, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.28% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $68.1946(2.62%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CAT advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CAT advances 3.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CAT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWD(69%)    XLI(69%)    IVE(68%)    SDY(67%)    XLB(67%)
Factors Impacting CAT price   CAT will decline at least -1.14% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-30%)    VIXM(-24%)    UUP(-12%)    SHY(-7%)    BNDX(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.14% (StdDev 2.28%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $66.72(2.21%)
10 Day Moving Average   $66.67(2.29%)
20 Day Moving Average   $64.22(6.19%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   28.4%
Market Cap   $36.928b

Caterpillar, Inc. engages in the manufacture of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It operates through the following segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy and Transportation, Financial Products, and All Other. The Construction Industries segment supports customers using machinery in infrastructure and building construction applications. The Resource Industries segment is responsible for supporting customers using machinery in mining and quarrying applications and it includes business strategy, product design, product management and development, manufacturing, marketing and sales and product support. The Energy and Transportation segment supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail, and industrial applications. The Financial Products segment offers a range of financing alternatives to customers and dealers for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, as well as other equipment and marine vessels. The All Other segments include activities such as; the business strategy, product management and development, and manufacturing of filters and fluids, undercarriage, tires and rims, engaging tools, and fluid transfers. The company was founded on April 15, 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, IL.

$. CAT price fluctuates within 4.34% (three month std-dev: 2.28%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 25 Average positive next day return: 0.99%(52%) Average negative next day return: -0.86%(48%) Sample size 25 Average positive next three day return: 1.33%(68%) Average negative next three day return: -2.24%(32%) Sample size 25 Average positive next weekly return: 1.92%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.84%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160416

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_16_2016	61.48	64.22	66.67	66.72	66.65	66.6	68.19(2.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	37	-10	18	93	6.64	59%	0.08	74.7	2.28%	0	1.4	77	INF
2	Mar_15_2016	61.43	63.89	66.23	66.27	66.2	66.3	66.45(-0.4%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	16	10	-8	87	4.67	58%	0.02	76.6	2.27%	0	0.9	76	INF
3	Mar_14_2016	61.42	63.56	65.94	66.14	66.2	66.69	66.72(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	32	50	8	104	5.06	58%	0.03	77.4	2.27%	0	1.1	77	INF
4	Mar_11_2016	61.4	63.13	65.51	66.51	66.26	66.1	66.78(2.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	31	-30	2	116	4.79	58%	0.05	74.1	2.27%	0	1.3	68	INF
5	Mar_10_2016	61.37	62.62	64.99	66.52	66.58	65.83	65.46(-0.71%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	16	-80	-18	117	6.35	58%	0.05	63.6	2.27%	0	0.9	70	INF

6	Mar_9_2016	61.34	62.21	64.57	66.59	66.84	66.43	65.93(0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	24	-30	-10	127	4.91	58%	0.05	61	2.27%	0	1.2	69	INF
7	Mar_8_2016	61.31	61.84	64.04	66.13	66.54	67.34	65.8(-4.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	47	100	20	126	8.75	56%	0.07	62.8	2.27%	0	1.3	63	INF
8	Mar_7_2016	61.27	61.5	63.51	65.65	65.68	67.26	68.59(2.65%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	87	170	69	141	10.74	57%	0.1	63.7	2.24%	0	2.3	77	INF
9	Mar_4_2016	61.21	61.06	62.78	64.35	64.44	65.73	66.82(1.52%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	82	140	67	126	9.52	56%	0.07	68.5	2.24%	0	2.3	79	INF
10	Mar_3_2016	61.17	60.72	62.07	63.26	63.26	64.11	65.82(3.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	63	90	47	109	7.17	54%	0.03	76	2.23%	0	2.3	80	INF

11	Mar_2_2016	61.15	60.31	61.52	62.29	62.45	63.14	63.64(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	52	90	36	99	4.8	52%	0.02	85.3	2.2%	0	1.8	73	INF
12	Mar_1_2016	61.14	59.91	61.3	61.65	61.73	62.41	63.38(2.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	50	80	35	96	4.45	52%	0	76.8	2.2%	0	1.8	64	INF
13	Feb_29_2016	61.14	59.61	60.93	61.04	60.88	61.76	62.1(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	35	90	20	80	8.64	53%	-0.03	83.9	2.19%	0	1.3	59	INF
14	Feb_26_2016	61.16	59.36	60.53	60.97	60.65	61.05	61.34(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	40	30	29	72	4.15	53%	-0.05	87.9	2.19%	0	1.1	51	INF
15	Feb_25_2016	61.19	59.1	60.06	60.7	60.58	60	60.98(0.9%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	8	-70	-2	36	4.28	53%	-0.03	84.7	2.2%	0	1	51	INF

16	Feb_24_2016	61.21	58.74	59.68	60.64	60.37	60.25	60.43(0.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-18	-30	-30	20	6.44	53%	-0.05	72.5	2.2%	0	0.8	58	INF
17	Feb_23_2016	61.24	58.45	59.5	60.89	60.74	61.17	60.34(-2.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	27	40	16	58	5.6	53%	-0.03	71.9	2.2%	0	0.8	64	INF
18	Feb_22_2016	61.26	58.1	59.38	60.79	60.79	60.49	61.75(2.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	34	-30	23	68	5.79	55%	0.05	62	2.18%	0	1.4	60	INF
19	Feb_19_2016	61.23	57.8	59.23	60.02	60.27	60.31	60.01(-1.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	15	20	1	56	4.99	53%	0.05	55.7	2.16%	0	0.9	59	INF
20	Feb_18_2016	61.2	57.54	59.26	59.29	59.72	61.09	60.65(-1.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	55	180	48	75	6.18	53%	0.03	46.2	2.16%	0	1.3	63	INF

21	Feb_17_2016	61.18	57.2	58.99	58.56	58.52	60.22	61.7(3.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	69	200	64	83	7.37	53%	0.07	34.9	2.15%	0	1.8	71	INF
22	Feb_16_2016	61.14	56.82	58.39	57.95	57.72	58.35	59.82(3.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	60	40	66	4.82	51%	0.1	27	2.12%	0	1.3	65	INF
23	Feb_12_2016	61.08	56.56	58.15	57.83	57.55	56.83	57.93(2.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-2	-100	-23	60	4.3	46%	-0.02	22	2.08%	0	0.6	65	INF
24	Feb_11_2016	61.09	56.48	58.08	58.38	58.06	57.1	56.33(-1.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-25	-130	-56	69	7.06	43%	-0.11	26.4	2.11%	0	-0.1	52	INF
25	Feb_10_2016	61.16	56.43	58.09	59.21	59.12	58.27	57(-2.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	8	-110	-27	113	5.96	43%		27.2	2.11%	0	0.3	57	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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