Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Oct. 2, 2015

Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Caterpillar)
CAT latest price $58.8657 (2.03%) ($56.5361 - $58.8925) on Fri. Oct. 2, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.79% (three month average)
RSI   32
Latest Price   $58.8657(2.03%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CAT advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CAT declines -6.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CAT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(69%)    IWD(69%)    XLI(69%)    SDY(67%)    XLB(67%)
Factors Impacting CAT price   CAT will decline at least -0.895% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-30%)    VIXM(-26%)    UUP(-11%)    SHY(-7%)    BNDX(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.895% (StdDev 1.79%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $48.17(-18.17%)
Resistance Level   $62.64
5 Day Moving Average   $57.98(1.53%)
10 Day Moving Average   $59.75(-1.48%)
20 Day Moving Average   $62.64(-6.03%)
To recent high   -21.6%
To recent low   3%
Market Cap   $31.876b

Caterpillar, Inc. engages in the manufacture of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It operates through the following segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy and Transportation, Financial Products, and All Other. The Construction Industries segment supports customers using machinery in infrastructure and building construction applications. The Resource Industries segment is responsible for supporting customers using machinery in mining and quarrying applications and it includes business strategy, product design, product management and development, manufacturing, marketing and sales and product support. The Energy and Transportation segment supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail, and industrial applications. The Financial Products segment offers a range of financing alternatives to customers and dealers for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, as well as other equipment and marine vessels. The All Other segments include activities such as; the business strategy, product management and development, and manufacturing of filters and fluids, undercarriage, tires and rims, engaging tools, and fluid transfers. The company was founded on April 15, 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, IL.

$. CAT price fluctuates within 5.75% (three month std-dev: 1.79%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 10 Average positive next day return: 1.65%(80%) Average negative next day return: -1.95%(20%) Sample size 10 Average positive next three day return: 3.17%(90%) Average negative next three day return: 0%(10%) Sample size 10 Average positive next weekly return: 5.07%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.16%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151102

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_2_2015	71.13	62.64	59.75	57.98	57.96	58.02	58.87(2.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-53	10	-0	-212	8.78	34%	-0.29	-66.6	1.79%	0	-1	32	INF
2	Oct_1_2015	71.34	63.04	60.27	57.85	57.8	58.22	57.69(-1.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-54	50	3	-223	7.93	31%	-0.29	-70.1	1.77%	0	-1.5	28	INF
3	Sep_30_2015	71.55	63.57	61.11	58.1	57.84	57.91	58.56(1.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-58	-0	-5	-215	7.85	31%	-0.28	-68.3	1.76%	0	-1.4	31	INF
4	Sep_29_2015	71.75	64.01	62	58.97	58.02	57.37	57.62(0.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-99	-130	-63	-208	8.78	31%	-0.31	-62	1.74%	0	-1.9	26	INF
5	Sep_28_2015	71.97	64.57	62.93	60.29	59.53	57.77	57.15(-1.83%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-106	-240	-82	-177	12.57	31%	-0.28	-51.9	1.75%	0	-2.4	21	INF

6	Sep_25_2015	72.17	65.14	63.79	61.79	61.2	58.67	58.22(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-133	-320	-125	-156	12.37	31%	-0.26	-44.9	1.74%	0	-2.6	29	INF
7	Sep_24_2015	72.36	65.64	64.53	63.02	62.81	61.28	58.96(-6.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-124	-180	-123	-128	22.59	31%	-0.26	-41.6	1.74%	0	-3.1	28	INF
8	Sep_23_2015	72.55	66.04	65.19	64.5	64.32	63.74	62.9(-2.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-61	-70	-54	-80	4.75	34%	-0.21	-42.7	1.58%	0	-2.1	31	INF
9	Sep_22_2015	72.7	66.15	65.46	65.48	65.17	64.34	64.22(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-48	-100	-45	-55	5.72	35%	-0.18	-48	1.56%	0	-1.4	40	INF
10	Sep_21_2015	72.83	66.22	65.7	66	66.05	64.9	64.65(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-45	-120	-44	-49	7.59	35%	-0.18	-57.1	1.57%	0	-1.2	37	INF

11	Sep_18_2015	72.96	66.35	65.8	66.11	66.37	66.01	64.38(-2.97%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-44	-30	-40	-57	9.26	35%	-0.18	-67.9	1.57%	0	-1.6	38	INF
12	Sep_17_2015	73.09	66.56	66.04	66.24	66.36	67.2	66.36(-2.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	15	90	31	-32	7.74	36%	-0.16	-70.2	1.53%	0	-0.2	44	INF
13	Sep_16_2015	73.21	66.69	66.2	65.95	65.83	66.74	67.77(1.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	41	90	61	-21	5.23	38%	-0.12	-74	1.52%	0	0.8	56	INF
14	Sep_15_2015	73.3	66.81	66.1	65.47	65.26	65.52	66.82(2.49%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	5	20	20	-40	5.11	38%	-0.12	-71	1.51%	0	0	60	INF
15	Sep_14_2015	73.39	66.97	66.24	65.42	65.31	64.92	65.2(0.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-19	-50	-12	-39	4.23	35%	-0.14	-68.9	1.47%	0	-1	52	INF

16	Sep_11_2015	73.49	67.22	66.52	65.48	65.7	64.99	65.07(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-36	-70	-34	-42	4.41	35%	-0.14	-63.3	1.47%	0	-1.1	44	INF
17	Sep_10_2015	73.59	67.45	66.8	65.81	65.84	65.7	64.89(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-46	-10	-48	-41	6.11	37%	-0.15	-58.7	1.47%	0	-1.4	39	INF
18	Sep_9_2015	73.7	67.74	66.96	66.47	66.37	66.41	65.37(-1.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-5	-0	-1	-17	5.86	37%	-0.12	-45	1.49%	0	-1.3	38	INF
19	Sep_8_2015	73.79	67.97	66.92	66.81	66.78	65.99	66.57(1.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-28	-80	-22	-47	5.65	39%	-0.12	-38.2	1.48%	0	-0.8	37	INF
20	Sep_4_2015	73.88	68.22	66.81	67.2	66.93	66.33	65.5(-1.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-70	-70	-66	-81	12.01	37%	-0.14	-25.2	1.46%	0	-1.4	34	INF

21	Sep_3_2015	73.98	68.42	66.99	67.71	67.56	67.57	66.71(-2.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-17	-10	-4	-57	11.08	38%	-0.11	-22.2	1.45%	0	-0.9	37	INF
22	Sep_2_2015	74.06	68.56	67.16	67.92	67.65	67.52	68.18(1.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-7	-30	9	-53	5.33	40%	-0.07	-21.7	1.43%	0	-0.2	44	INF
23	Sep_1_2015	74.11	68.6	67.24	67.52	67.54	67.56	67.11(-2.01%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-13	0	9	-77	9.05	38%	-0.07	-29	1.41%	0	-0.8	36	INF
24	Aug_31_2015	74.16	68.68	67.56	67.02	67.24	67.78	68.49(0.65%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	4	70	33	-83	7.02	39%	-0.07	-40.3	1.4%	0	-0.1	44	INF
25	Aug_28_2015	74.21	68.72	67.71	66.37	66.75	67.53	68.05(0.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	9	100	48	-109	6.65	37%		-45.8	1.4%	0	-0.4	36	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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