Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Sep. 5, 2019

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $178.9400 (2.64%) ($176.5200 - $178.9500) on Thu. Sep. 5, 2019.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.94% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $178.9400(2.64%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(74%)    MCHI(72%)    FXI(68%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(57%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.97% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-26%)    UUP(-14%)    VXX(-10%)    TLT(-6%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.97% (StdDev 1.94%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $174.7(2.43%)
10 Day Moving Average   $171.17(4.54%)
20 Day Moving Average   $169.67(5.46%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   18.1%
Market Cap   $480.046b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 3.66% (three month std-dev: 1.94%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 1.62%(38%) Average negative next day return: -1.5%(62%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 3.05%(54%) Average negative next three day return: -2.45%(46%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 4.6%(48%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.93%(52%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20191005

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_5_2019	169.88	169.67	171.17	174.7	175.12	176.55	178.94(2.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	85	60	97	48	11.17	66%	-0.05	62.8	1.94%	0	1.5	63	1.6
2	Sep_4_2019	169.97	168.68	170.66	172.41	173.71	174.18	174.33(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	51	40	58	31	7.22	66%	-0.07	42.4	1.93%	0	0.9	65	1
3	Sep_3_2019	170.09	167.86	170.84	170.79	171.41	173.7	172.41(-1.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	41	100	44	30	8.51	66%	-0.18	22.3	1.95%	0	0.7	61	-0.2
4	Aug_30_2019	170.39	166.97	171.33	169.48	169.82	173.25	175.03(1.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	136	150	151	91	10.3	66%	-0.06	0.5	1.93%	0	1.2	68	0.1
5	Aug_29_2019	170.49	166.25	171.22	167.39	167.82	169.13	172.81(3.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	86	60	91	72	11.58	66%	-0.08	-19.8	1.93%	0	1	67	0.1

6	Aug_28_2019	170.63	165.85	170.66	167.21	166.63	166.39	167.48(0.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-23	-20	-40	28	9.51	64%	-0.12	-28.4	1.91%	0	0.2	58	-0.4
7	Aug_27_2019	170.83	166.08	170.25	168.76	168.32	166.52	166.2(0.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-35	-80	-61	42	12.78	64%	-0.12	-25.4	1.91%	0	0	61	-0.8
8	Aug_26_2019	171.04	166.43	170.14	170.96	170.77	166.87	165.9(0.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-93	-160	-140	47	8.65	64%	-0.11	-18.5	1.92%	0	-0.1	62	-0.6
9	Aug_23_2019	171.23	166.94	169.64	173.44	173.35	170.13	164.54(-4.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-109	-130	-170	76	20.91	64%	-0.1	-7.1	1.92%	0	-0.3	65	-1.1
10	Aug_22_2019	171.4	167.6	169.26	175.45	175.89	174.67	171.91(-1.9%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	6	-40	-44	155	11.58	66%	-0.04	3.2	1.86%	0	0.5	61	-0

11	Aug_21_2019	171.47	167.79	168.32	174.46	175.84	176.57	175.24(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	70	50	36	172	10.63	68%	-0.03	2	1.88%	0	0.9	58	0.2
12	Aug_20_2019	171.53	167.86	166.71	171.82	173.75	177.1	177.21(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	138	170	131	158	10.34	62%	-0.02	-4.6	1.88%	0	1.1	51	-0.3
13	Aug_19_2019	171.57	167.8	164.68	169.19	169.93	175.1	178.28(2.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	178	230	196	125	16.01	62%	-0.02	-11.6	1.99%	0	1.3	51	-0.2
14	Aug_16_2019	171.61	167.49	162.16	165.39	166.27	170.4	174.6(4.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	173	190	212	54	25.95	57%	-0.02	-24.8	2.03%	0	0.9	45	-1
15	Aug_15_2019	171.65	167.35	160.65	162.3	162.59	164.76	166.97(3.03%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	64	100	103	-53	36.34	54%	-0.06	-33.6	1.95%	0	-0	36	-1.7

16	Aug_14_2019	171.75	167.61	160.39	161.35	160.63	162.15	162.06(-1.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	10	50	49	-108	20.8	54%	-0.09	-33.3	1.92%	0	-0.7	33	-2.1
17	Aug_13_2019	171.91	168.25	161.35	160.77	160.62	160.41	164.03(2.96%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	18	-10	63	-116	23.25	50%	-0.09	-31.5	1.95%	0	-0.5	33	-1
18	Aug_12_2019	172.06	168.76	162.2	159.45	159.25	159.11	159.31(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-70	-10	-35	-173	14.51	47%	-0.1	-33.4	1.99%	0	-1.2	27	-1.9
19	Aug_9_2019	172.24	169.5	163.87	158.32	159.19	160.82	159.12(-1.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	6	90	56	-145	11.89	47%	-0.13	-36.3	1.99%	0	-1.3	34	-1.4
20	Aug_8_2019	172.46	170.07	165.75	158.7	157.72	159.38	162.22(1.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-6	60	40	-142	19.27	47%	-0.12	-39.3	1.98%	0	-1.1	38	-1.1

21	Aug_7_2019	172.66	170.35	167.2	159.38	157.87	157.55	159.17(1.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-59	-40	-26	-159	17.92	44%	-0.13	-43	1.96%	0	-1.6	34	-1.9
22	Aug_6_2019	172.89	170.82	169.14	162.17	160.89	156.07	157.43(2.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-140	-230	-131	-168	25	42%	-0.14	-40.4	2%	0	-2	30	-2
23	Aug_5_2019	173.14	171.48	171.27	165.51	164.71	158.19	153.67(-4.55%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.9	-265	-290	-288	-195	28.91	40%	-0.16	-34.8	2.01%	0	-2.9	24	-3.5
24	Aug_2_2019	173.42	172.34	173.5	170.18	169.66	165.72	161(-2.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-196	-170	-220	-125	27.1	45%	-0.12	-19.6	1.97%	0	-2.4	32	-2.3
25	Aug_1_2019	173.62	173.02	174.86	173.72	173.59	171.23	165.65(-4.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-91	-100	-108	-40	32.73	49%		3.9	1.95%	0	-1.8	49	-2.3
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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