Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Apr. 12, 2019

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $188.9100 (2.12%) ($187.1400 - $189.7900) on Fri. Apr. 12, 2019.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.7% (three month average)
RSI   67
Latest Price   $188.9100(2.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 2.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(68%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.85% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-8%)    TLT(-7%)    UUP(-5%)    VIXM(-4%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.85% (StdDev 1.7%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $186.75(1.16%)
10 Day Moving Average   $184.28(2.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $182.06(3.76%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   26.6%
Market Cap   $506.793b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 1.9% (three month std-dev: 1.7%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 0.71%(44%) Average negative next day return: -0.91%(56%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 1.46%(44%) Average negative next three day return: -1.43%(56%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 2.17%(44%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.02%(56%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20190512

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_12_2019	164.58	182.06	184.28	186.75	186.59	186.69	188.91(2.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	63	0	51	99	12.6	70%	0.16	48.9	1.7%	0	2	67	2.4
2	Apr_11_2019	164.32	181.63	183.6	186.04	185.9	185.53	184.98(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	5	-20	-19	77	8.9	68%	0.23	57.6	1.7%	0	1.1	67	1.6
3	Apr_10_2019	163.95	181.38	182.91	185.26	185.62	186.5	186.19(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	58	40	47	89	10.66	68%	0.26	57	1.7%	0	1.6	56	1.3
4	Apr_9_2019	163.52	181.08	182.01	183.69	183.91	186.28	187.19(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	87	90	88	82	11.58	71%	0.24	40.3	1.7%	0	2.2	58	0.6
5	Apr_8_2019	163.13	180.72	181.07	182.6	181.88	184.74	186.5(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	105	100	115	74	14.73	71%	0.21	26.3	1.74%	0	2.4	55	1.2

6	Apr_5_2019	162.79	180.38	180.25	181.47	180.96	181.54	185.35(2.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	69	10	78	43	18.71	71%	0.19	0.8	1.77%	0	2.1	54	1.3
7	Apr_4_2019	162.48	179.87	179.32	180.89	180.77	179.03	181.07(1.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-37	-70	-43	-20	17	74%	0.2	-25.9	1.76%	0	0.6	50	1.2
8	Apr_3_2019	162.16	179.69	179.31	180.23	181.26	180.38	178.32(-1.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-43	-20	-48	-26	26.82	67%	0.2	-43.3	1.94%	0	-0.6	46	1
9	Apr_2_2019	161.83	179.96	179.6	179.97	180.91	182.52	181.74(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	80	28	3	8.02	67%	0.25	-43.5	2.02%	0	0.7	52	1.2
10	Apr_1_2019	161.42	180.09	179.59	179.24	179.9	182.15	180.89(-0.86%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	72	100	88	22	12.71	67%	0.24	-42.9	2.02%	0	0.3	50	1.2

11	Mar_29_2019	161.04	180.36	179.65	178.81	178.84	179.31	182.45(2.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	52	20	65	11	13.85	67%	0.22	-39.8	2.03%	0	0.7	55	1
12	Mar_28_2019	160.69	180.41	179.45	177.57	177.68	177.65	177.73(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-25	0	-24	-28	7.23	66%	0.17	-41.3	2.03%	0	-0.9	61	0.7
13	Mar_27_2019	160.42	180.67	179.73	178.33	177.81	178.38	177.03(-0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	2	10	4	-5	8.37	66%	0.19	-17.9	2.03%	0	-1.2	52	0.2
14	Mar_26_2019	160.11	181.05	180.12	179.18	178.39	177.7	178.08(-0.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-1	-40	0	-5	7.9	69%	0.22	10.4	2.02%	0	-1	39	0.4
15	Mar_25_2019	159.76	181.33	180.4	179.99	178.83	177.24	178.77(1.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-58	-80	-67	-30	7.51	69%	0.21	40	2.09%	0	-0.9	38	-0.9

16	Mar_22_2019	159.43	181.56	180.58	180.6	180.2	179.07	176.26(-2.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-45	-50	-51	-28	11.69	69%	0.16	70.9	2.09%	0	-1.8	30	-1
17	Mar_21_2019	159.17	181.65	180.57	181.54	181.17	180.41	181.5(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-23	-40	-23	-22	9.75	72%	0.26	80.3	2.06%	0	-0	45	1.4
18	Mar_20_2019	158.75	181.21	180.17	181.32	181.3	181.32	181.28(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-14	0	-10	-27	15.9	72%	0.3	69.4	2.09%	0	0	47	1.3
19	Mar_19_2019	158.28	180.74	180.4	181.2	181.02	181.92	182.14(0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	12	30	21	-16	10.24	72%	0.32	63.2	2.1%	0	0.3	45	1.7
20	Mar_18_2019	157.77	180.19	180.62	180.9	180.73	181.27	181.83(0.48%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.2	20	20	31	-13	7.85	72%	0.26	63.3	2.14%	0	0.3	47	1.8

21	Mar_15_2019	157.36	179.47	181.08	180.61	180.54	180.12	180.97(0.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	2	-20	9	-19	10.84	68%	0.25	52.1	2.2%	0	0.3	46	2.2
22	Mar_14_2019	156.97	178.88	181.35	179.43	180.21	180.19	180.36(-0.19%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	10	7	-20	9.27	68%	0.27	44.4	2.22%	0	0.2	58	2
23	Mar_13_2019	156.54	178.38	181.62	178.82	178.67	180.95	180.7(0.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	12	90	18	-6	8.87	68%	0.22	38.6	2.23%	0	0.4	65	1.8
24	Mar_12_2019	156.19	177.81	181.99	179.51	178.26	180.24	180.63(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	63	60	71	39	8.66	68%	0.22	38.2	2.23%	0	0.4	66	1.8
25	Mar_11_2019	155.85	177.19	182.28	180.39	179.06	176.38	180.41(3.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-15	-130	-28	25	13.76	68%		40.9	2.23%	0	0.5	67	1.1
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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