Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Sep. 21, 2016

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $106.0000 (4.48%) ($102.2100 - $106.1900) on Wed. Sep. 21, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.85% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $106.0000(4.48%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(74%)    FXI(68%)    EEM(60%)    VWO(59%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.925% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-7%)    UUP(-6%)    SHY(-2%)    IBUY(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.925% (StdDev 1.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $103.91(2.01%)
10 Day Moving Average   $102.6(3.31%)
20 Day Moving Average   $100.16(5.83%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   42.8%
Market Cap   $284.369b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 3.71% (three month std-dev: 1.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 1.18%(45%) Average negative next day return: -3.43%(55%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 2.23%(45%) Average negative next three day return: -3.17%(55%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 3.14%(45%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.28%(55%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161021

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_21_2016	85.56	100.16	102.6	103.91	103.73	103.24	106(4.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	28	-40	14	69	23	82%	0.36	53.1	1.85%	0	1.6	68	0
2	Sep_20_2016	85.25	99.63	102.19	103.19	103.56	103.12	101.45(-1.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-2	-20	-24	64	12.86	80%	0.29	49	1.78%	0	0.5	65	0
3	Sep_19_2016	85	99.35	102.42	102.96	103.31	104.22	103.03(-1.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	48	70	27	109	15.23	80%	0.32	44.8	1.77%	0	1	71	0
4	Sep_16_2016	84.73	99.03	102.06	102.51	102.38	104	104.64(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	94	110	79	137	20.36	80%	0.34	41	1.77%	0	1.6	75	0
5	Sep_15_2016	84.44	98.63	101.36	101.51	101.05	102.4	104.45(2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	79	80	63	126	20.84	80%	0.32	42.8	1.77%	0	1.8	77	0

6	Sep_14_2016	84.17	98.23	100.63	101.13	100.33	100.76	102.4(2.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	48	10	25	117	19.6	81%	0.29	59	1.76%	0	1.4	75	0
7	Sep_13_2016	83.93	97.92	100.01	101.12	100.63	99.69	100.28(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	5	-80	-26	99	20	80%	0.26	81.7	1.78%	0	0.8	63	0
8	Sep_12_2016	83.71	97.76	99.52	101.82	101.35	99.91	100.8(1.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-17	-110	-56	102	17.32	80%	0.26	112.3	1.78%	0	1.1	65	0
9	Sep_9_2016	83.49	97.61	98.97	101.51	102.12	101.57	99.62(-2.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	11	-20	-21	105	21.25	76%	0.23	137.5	1.81%	0	0.7	58	0
10	Sep_8_2016	83.3	97.23	98.44	101.07	101.64	102.79	102.57(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	57	100	37	116	15.48	81%	0.26	136.3	1.76%	0	1.8	66	0

11	Sep_7_2016	83.08	96.49	97.56	99.99	100.37	102.68	102.32(-1.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	106	170	104	113	15.76	81%	0.28	115.5	1.76%	0	1.7	66	0
12	Sep_6_2016	82.85	95.66	96.87	98.73	98.76	100.48	103.78(4.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	111	120	117	92	32.8	81%	0.35	93.1	1.75%	0	2.1	72	0
13	Sep_2_2016	82.56	94.73	95.98	96.95	97.15	98.07	99.25(1.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	52	70	59	29	17.48	79%	0.24	70.7	1.68%	0	1	57	0
14	Sep_1_2016	82.36	94.02	95.69	96.11	96.15	97.03	97.42(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	70	45	1	13.39	67%	0.22	64.4	1.67%	0	0.7	43	0
15	Aug_31_2016	82.18	93.41	95.61	95.41	95.46	96.22	97.19(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	34	60	44	5	28.62	67%	0.23	58.3	1.87%	0	0.7	69	0

16	Aug_30_2016	81.99	92.77	95.56	94.75	94.77	95.26	96(1.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	17	40	19	11	13.99	67%	0.23	53.2	1.87%	0	0.6	76	0
17	Aug_29_2016	81.8	92.18	95.61	94.71	94.53	94.7	94.88(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	14	10	5	40	8.82	67%	0.21	52.1	1.88%	0	0.5	78	0
18	Aug_26_2016	81.63	91.68	95.84	94.86	94.81	94.28	95.06(1.19%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	10	-40	-11	73	14.13	71%	0.22	51.9	1.92%	0	0.6	79	0
19	Aug_25_2016	81.45	91.07	96.14	95.22	95.11	94.37	93.94(0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-5	-60	-43	110	13.04	63%	0.18	51.4	1.96%	0	0.5	79	0
20	Aug_24_2016	81.3	90.55	96	95.84	95.85	95.34	93.88(-1.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	15	-40	-26	139	12.73	65%	0.21	52.9	2.15%	0	0.6	78	0

21	Aug_23_2016	81.13	90.03	95.45	96.46	96.43	95.85	95.79(0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	31	-40	-16	171	9.65	65%	0.21	54.9	2.15%	0	0.9	86	0
22	Aug_22_2016	80.96	89.42	94.49	96.63	96.63	96.36	95.65(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	31	-20	-20	183	16.22	65%	0.21	57.4	2.15%	0	1	85	0
23	Aug_19_2016	80.79	88.79	93.5	96.94	96.73	97.02	96.86(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	49	10	-3	205	14.27	65%	0.22	61.4	2.14%	0	1.4	86	0
24	Aug_18_2016	80.61	88.14	92.32	97.22	96.96	96.91	97(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	79	-10	27	236	15.01	65%	0.22	69.4	2.15%	0	1.6	88	0
25	Aug_17_2016	80.43	87.47	91.1	96.17	96.57	96.44	97(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	73	0	22	227	14.98	65%		71.1	2.15%	0	1.8	85	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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