Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Feb. 16, 2016

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $66.2900 (8.87%) ($64.0400 - $66.8900) on Tue. Feb. 16, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.51% (three month average)
RSI   39
Latest Price   $66.2900(8.87%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA declines -4.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(67%)    EEM(59%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.255% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    TLT(-8%)    UUP(-5%)    URA(-5%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.255% (StdDev 2.51%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.9%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $52.89(-20.21%)
5 Day Moving Average   $62.18(6.61%)
10 Day Moving Average   $62.77(5.61%)
20 Day Moving Average   $65.7(0.9%)
To recent high   -22%
To recent low   9.4%
Market Cap   $177.838b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 5.36% (three month std-dev: 2.51%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0.79%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 4.85%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 9.36%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160316

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_16_2016	74.87	65.7	62.77	62.18	62.3	63.36	66.29(8.87%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.2	39	120	76	-72	21.74	44%	0.34	-60.6	2.51%	0	0.2	39	INF
2	Feb_12_2016	74.62	65.85	62.76	61.15	61.13	60.94	60.89(0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-46	-20	-11	-151	13.67	35%	0.01	-68.8	2.28%	0	-1.4	18	INF
3	Feb_11_2016	74.61	66.41	63.36	61.5	61.09	61.24	60.57(-1.96%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-58	-0	-24	-161	15.01	35%	0.01	-66.7	2.28%	0	-1.6	16	INF
4	Feb_10_2016	74.6	66.91	63.99	62.35	61.84	61.33	61.78(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-42	-80	-5	-151	9	35%	0	-73.3	2.28%	0	-1.5	17	INF
5	Feb_9_2016	74.6	67.46	64.75	62.69	62.49	60.93	61.39(0.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-79	-180	-52	-161	12.74	35%	-0.04	-79.5	2.28%	0	-1.8	27	INF

6	Feb_8_2016	74.63	67.91	65.58	63.43	63.28	62.36	61.1(-2.46%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-90	-110	-69	-154	16.16	35%	-0.07	-90.7	2.3%	0	-2.2	23	INF
7	Feb_5_2016	74.68	68.42	66.46	64.61	64.54	64.05	62.64(-3.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-47	-60	-25	-114	12.84	37%	-0.04	-109.3	2.29%	0	-2.1	29	INF
8	Feb_4_2016	74.71	68.94	67.24	65.49	65.3	64.21	64.86(2.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-52	-130	-33	-108	22.91	38%	-0.04	-125.7	2.26%	0	-1.6	27	INF
9	Feb_3_2016	74.74	69.54	67.82	65.9	66.01	65.02	63.44(-2.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-78	-100	-66	-112	31.92	38%	-0.01	-114.8	2.26%	0	-2.1	31	INF
10	Feb_2_2016	74.75	70.29	68.4	67.12	67.48	66.39	65.09(-2.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-51	-100	-38	-90	19.15	40%	0.04	-102	2.25%	0	-1.7	29	INF

11	Feb_1_2016	74.72	70.87	68.93	68.06	68.43	66.99	67.03(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-59	-130	-52	-78	16.21	42%	0.03	-104	2.23%	0	-1.2	44	INF
12	Jan_29_2016	74.7	71.55	69.2	68.6	69.13	68.58	67.03(0.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-52	-30	-46	-68	25.59	42%	0.04	-107.1	2.25%	0	-1.4	42	INF
13	Jan_28_2016	74.67	72.26	69.72	69.26	69.82	69.87	66.92(-3.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-19	30	-11	-43	33.17	45%	0.04	-90.9	2.25%	0	-1.5	37	INF
14	Jan_27_2016	74.64	73.05	70.09	70.02	70.25	69.69	69.54(-0.33%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-11	-50	1	-46	18.26	51%	0.12	-78.1	2.26%	0	-0.9	33	INF
15	Jan_26_2016	74.55	73.66	70.38	69.86	70.16	69.77	69.77(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-32	-30	-18	-75	11.47	51%	-0.07	-71	2.32%	0	-0.8	31	INF

16	Jan_25_2016	74.6	74.33	70.41	69.93	69.75	70.81	69.72(-0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-20	100	3	-88	14.78	51%	0.08	-67	2.32%	0	-0.9	37	INF
17	Jan_22_2016	74.54	75.06	70.52	69.9	69.99	70.55	70.37(-0.49%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	5	60	40	-101	15.83	55%	0.05	-67.6	2.46%	0	-1	32	INF
18	Jan_21_2016	74.5	75.76	70.74	70.28	69.41	68.69	70.72(2.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-49	-110	-18	-143	16.58	53%	0.08	-60.3	2.48%	0	-1	31	INF
19	Jan_20_2016	74.44	76.36	71.34	70.19	69.73	69.42	68.71(-2.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-69	-50	-35	-169	19.46	51%	0.05	-56	2.49%	0	-1.4	25	INF
20	Jan_19_2016	74.4	77.08	72.29	70.99	70.69	70.13	70.13(0.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-39	-70	-1	-153	17.42	51%	0.11	-50.3	2.48%	0	-1.2	29	INF

21	Jan_15_2016	74.32	77.76	72.93	70.95	70.92	70.05	69.59(-3.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-70	-90	-31	-188	20.72	54%	-0.01	-52.5	2.46%	0	-1.5	27	INF
22	Jan_14_2016	74.33	78.53	74.06	71.19	71.24	71.26	72.25(2.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-60	0	-17	-187	17.72	56%	0.05	-53.2	2.48%	0	-1.2	28	INF
23	Jan_13_2016	74.29	79.06	74.95	71.28	71.68	71.8	70.29(-3.29%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-55	30	-9	-192	12.48	55%	0.03	-55.3	2.47%	0	-1.7	23	INF
24	Jan_12_2016	74.27	79.62	76.23	72.69	72.09	71.23	72.68(3.95%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-74	-110	-37	-184	13.46	57%	0.09	-56.5	2.44%	0	-1.4	31	INF
25	Jan_11_2016	74.2	80.01	77.17	73.88	73.46	71.55	69.92(-1.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-97	-200	-68	-183	16.96	55%		-58.7	2.4%	0	-2.2	24	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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