Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 14, 2016

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $72.2500 (2.79%) ($68.2700 - $72.7200) on Thu. Jan. 14, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.48% (three month average)
RSI   28
Latest Price   $72.2500(2.79%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA declines -7.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(67%)    EEM(59%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.24% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    TLT(-8%)    UUP(-5%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-2%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.24% (StdDev 2.48%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.8%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $60.54(-16.21%)
Resistance Level   $78.53
5 Day Moving Average   $71.19(1.49%)
10 Day Moving Average   $74.06(-2.44%)
20 Day Moving Average   $78.53(-8%)
To recent high   -15.4%
To recent low   5.4%
Market Cap   $193.827b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 6.75% (three month std-dev: 2.48%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 1.51%(31%) Average negative next day return: -3.15%(69%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 2%(38%) Average negative next three day return: -6.64%(62%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 4.37%(38%) Average negative next weekly return: -13.33%(62%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_14_2016	74.33	78.53	74.06	71.19	71.24	71.26	72.25(2.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-60	0	-17	-187	17.72	56%	0.05	-53.2	2.48%	0	-1.2	28	0
2	Jan_13_2016	74.29	79.06	74.95	71.28	71.68	71.8	70.29(-3.29%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-55	30	-9	-192	12.48	55%	0.03	-55.3	2.47%	0	-1.7	23	0
3	Jan_12_2016	74.27	79.62	76.23	72.69	72.09	71.23	72.68(3.95%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-74	-110	-37	-184	13.46	57%	0.09	-56.5	2.44%	0	-1.4	31	0
4	Jan_11_2016	74.2	80.01	77.17	73.88	73.46	71.55	69.92(-1.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-97	-200	-68	-183	16.96	55%	0.01	-58.7	2.4%	0	-2.2	24	0
5	Jan_8_2016	74.19	80.77	78.58	75.23	75.37	72.94	70.8(-2.64%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-108	-220	-87	-169	20.81	55%	0.01	-58.8	2.4%	0	-2.6	24	0

6	Jan_7_2016	74.18	81.45	80.01	77.33	76.49	75.37	72.72(-5.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-107	-140	-96	-140	27.29	60%	-0.01	-57.8	2.39%	0	-2.8	25	0
7	Jan_6_2016	74.19	82.07	81.27	79.12	78.56	77.8	77.33(-1.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-39	-90	-25	-79	11.57	65%	0.05	-55.9	2.3%	0	-2	39	0
8	Jan_5_2016	74.15	82.45	81.86	80.31	79.77	77.61	78.63(2.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-63	-210	-61	-68	14.26	65%	0.05	-45.8	2.29%	0	-1.8	48	0
9	Jan_4_2016	74.11	82.77	82.3	81.01	80.97	79.32	76.69(-5.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-82	-140	-89	-60	23.07	64%	0.01	-32.4	2.27%	0	-3	46	0
10	Dec_31_2015	74.1	83.11	83.04	82.41	82.25	81.93	81.27(-0.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-27	-30	-31	-14	6.74	74%	0.11	-15.9	2.31%	0	-1.3	43	0

11	Dec_30_2015	74.02	83.29	83.38	83.12	82.9	82.62	81.68(-1.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-8	-30	-13	9	6.98	74%	0.05	9.8	2.31%	0	-1.1	47	0
12	Dec_29_2015	73.98	83.42	83.49	83.75	83.49	82.58	83.26(1.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-8	-90	-15	14	6.94	74%	0.04	31.4	2.3%	0	-0.1	47	0
13	Dec_28_2015	73.95	83.45	83.26	83.67	83.74	83.18	82.14(-1.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-24	-40	-30	-5	9.32	71%	-0.03	43.5	2.29%	0	-0.9	44	0
14	Dec_24_2015	73.97	83.43	83.06	83.77	83.94	84.39	83.71(-1.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	4	40	6	-3	3.78	71%	0.05	55.4	2.31%	0	0.2	47	0
15	Dec_23_2015	73.93	83.34	83.1	83.74	83.64	84.3	84.8(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	17	50	20	7	11.24	67%	0.08	66.3	2.3%	0	1	56	0

16	Dec_22_2015	73.87	83.15	82.94	83.71	83.52	83.49	84.84(2.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	12	-10	16	0	12.78	64%	0.09	71.8	2.34%	0	1.1	49	0
17	Dec_21_2015	73.8	82.97	82.86	83.24	83.53	82.98	82.87(0.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-7	-40	-4	-15	8.09	61%	0.07	73.8	2.38%	0	-0.1	48	0
18	Dec_18_2015	73.75	82.84	83.03	82.78	83.26	83.55	82.65(-1.09%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-2	40	3	-18	12.17	61%	0.03	71.6	2.41%	0	-0.1	47	0
19	Dec_17_2015	73.73	82.63	83.23	82.2	82.56	84.09	83.56(-1.26%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	21	140	31	-8	13	61%	0.05	50.8	2.4%	0	0.5	57	0
20	Dec_16_2015	73.69	82.36	83.23	82.35	81.83	82.98	84.63(2.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	34	80	44	2	16.58	63%	0.05	43.6	2.41%	0	1	58	0

21	Dec_15_2015	73.65	82.04	83.14	82.11	81.76	81.04	82.49(2.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-5	-70	-3	-10	13.05	63%	0.01	32.6	2.43%	0	0.2	56	0
22	Dec_14_2015	73.64	81.85	83.29	82.49	82.27	80.69	80.57(1.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-47	-140	-56	-18	12.08	60%	-0.04	30	2.45%	0	-0.5	51	0
23	Dec_11_2015	73.67	81.65	83.67	83.33	83.14	82.49	79.74(-5.44%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.3	-34	-60	-48	10	20.79	60%	-0.05	22.8	2.49%	0	-0.7	53	0
24	Dec_10_2015	73.71	81.62	83.91	84.35	83.14	83.85	84.33(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	19	-30	5	61	10.47	65%	0	22.5	2.38%	0	1	73	0
25	Dec_9_2015	73.71	81.39	83.66	84	84.01	83.8	83.42(-1.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	8	-20	-10	62	21.92	67%		10.6	2.38%	0	0.7	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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