Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 3, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $82.5900 (-2.84%) ($82.1000 - $85.1000) on Thu. Dec. 3, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.58% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $82.5900(-2.84%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 3.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(67%)    EEM(59%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.29% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-16%)    TLT(-8%)    UUP(-4%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.29% (StdDev 2.58%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $83.41(-0.98%)
10 Day Moving Average   $81.99(0.73%)
20 Day Moving Average   $81(1.96%)
To recent high   -3.3%
To recent low   43.9%
Market Cap   $221.566b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 3.2% (three month std-dev: 2.58%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160103

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_3_2015	73.63	81	81.99	83.41	83.83	84.27	82.59(-2.84%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	28	50	8	87	23.03	59%	0.03	1.3	2.58%	0	0.6	61	0
2	Dec_2_2015	73.61	81.1	81.53	83.23	83.07	84.38	85(1.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	51	100	37	93	36.61	61%	0.04	4.4	2.55%	0	1.4	63	0
3	Dec_1_2015	73.58	80.99	80.83	82.41	82.24	83.39	84(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	54	90	47	76	26.24	60%	0.03	2.4	2.55%	0	1.1	55	0
4	Nov_30_2015	73.56	80.97	80.24	81.87	81.39	81.76	84.08(3.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	31	10	25	49	97.91	56%	0.05	10.3	2.66%	0	1.2	55	0
5	Nov_27_2015	73.52	80.93	79.42	81.04	80.92	81.1	81.38(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	11	10	11	11	12.6	56%	-0.03	15.8	2.64%	0	0.2	41	0

6	Nov_25_2015	73.54	80.96	79.13	80.34	80.61	81.03	81.71(1.05%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	14	50	23	-12	16.33	58%	0.03	28	2.64%	0	0.3	37	0
7	Nov_24_2015	73.52	80.98	79.13	79.54	79.75	80.75	80.86(-0.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	9	100	24	-38	15.28	56%	0.01	41.6	2.68%	0	-0	35	0
8	Nov_23_2015	73.51	80.92	78.91	78.99	79.02	80.19	81.31(1.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	18	100	39	-46	18.77	56%	0.11	46.3	2.72%	0	0.1	43	0
9	Nov_20_2015	73.43	80.7	78.87	78.39	78.38	78.76	79.95(2.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	6	30	30	-66	21.03	52%	-0.03	44	2.75%	0	-0.2	37	0
10	Nov_19_2015	73.45	80.51	79.18	77.57	77.82	77.86	77.87(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-23	10	-0	-91	15.69	52%	-0.07	35.1	2.77%	0	-0.7	32	0

11	Nov_18_2015	73.5	80.24	79.88	77.75	77.46	78.01	77.69(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-24	40	-4	-83	16.74	51%	-0.07	30.6	2.78%	0	-0.6	39	0
12	Nov_17_2015	73.55	79.9	80.63	78.18	77.85	77.79	78.13(-0.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-14	-20	4	-68	12.47	51%	-0.04	32.6	2.79%	0	-0.4	39	0
13	Nov_16_2015	73.58	79.63	81.17	78.84	78.42	76.91	78.3(3.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-42	-150	-34	-66	17.05	51%	-0.07	37.6	2.79%	0	-0.3	50	0
14	Nov_13_2015	73.63	79.39	81.78	79.45	79.42	77.92	75.85(-3.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-62	-130	-65	-52	24.24	51%	-0.12	42	2.76%	0	-0.7	54	0
15	Nov_12_2015	73.72	79.26	82.63	81.01	80.78	79.93	78.76(-1.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-33	-80	-43	-1	18.84	50%	-0.09	53	2.73%	0	-0.1	64	0

16	Nov_11_2015	73.79	78.95	83.03	82.33	82.01	80.92	79.85(-1.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-14	-100	-35	49	29.64	48%	-0.07	60.1	2.8%	0	0.2	75	0
17	Nov_10_2015	73.84	78.43	83.33	83.44	83.16	81.64	81.43(0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-5	-140	-39	97	22	49%	-0.05	65.6	2.84%	0	0.5	82	0
18	Nov_9_2015	73.88	77.86	83.19	83.84	84.09	83.1	81.38(-2.67%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	4	-70	-37	126	19.09	49%	-0.07	71.7	2.85%	0	0.6	72	0
19	Nov_6_2015	73.93	77.33	82.78	84.44	84.51	84.69	83.61(-2.07%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	36	20	-7	163	38.53	49%	-0.04	78.6	2.83%	0	1	74	0
20	Nov_5_2015	73.96	76.59	82.03	84.48	84.46	85.09	85.38(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	66	50	24	193	20.66	49%	-0.01	83.4	2.82%	0	1.4	80	0

21	Nov_4_2015	73.97	75.69	80.66	83.85	83.98	84.33	85.4(2.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	63	30	22	186	23.73	49%	-0.01	89.4	2.82%	0	1.6	80	0
22	Nov_3_2015	73.98	74.73	79.12	83.24	83.23	83.83	83.44(-1.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	60	50	18	185	11.64	49%	-0.04	94.2	2.81%	0	1.4	82	0
23	Nov_2_2015	74.01	73.75	77.96	82.44	82.51	83.63	84.35(0.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	78	100	40	193	13.83	49%	-0.03	96.9	2.81%	0	1.7	79	0
24	Oct_30_2015	74.03	72.72	76.76	80.84	81.71	82.64	83.83(1.96%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	88	110	56	184	20.74	48%	-0.04	98.9	2.82%	0	1.9	77	0
25	Oct_29_2015	74.06	71.67	75.53	79.2	79.88	81.39	82.22(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	81	160	51	169	16.43	48%		94.7	2.81%	0	1.8	77	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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