Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Oct. 23, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $75.6200 (6.52%) ($72.8400 - $75.7600) on Fri. Oct. 23, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.74% (three month average)
RSI   78
Latest Price   $75.6200(6.52%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 4.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(66%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.37% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-4%)    UUP(-3%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.37% (StdDev 2.74%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $72.11(4.87%)
10 Day Moving Average   $71.35(5.98%)
20 Day Moving Average   $67.3(12.36%)
To recent high   -9.8%
To recent low   31.8%
Market Cap   $202.867b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 8.08% (three month std-dev: 2.74%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 9 Average positive next day return: 5.28%(33%) Average negative next day return: -2.81%(67%) Sample size 9 Average positive next three day return: 7.35%(44%) Average negative next three day return: -4.82%(56%) Sample size 9 Average positive next weekly return: 5.12%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.21%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_23_2015	74.42	67.3	71.35	72.11	72.01	72.63	75.62(6.52%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	67	60	51	113	22.51	44%	-0.2	54.6	2.74%	0	1.5	78	0
2	Oct_22_2015	74.57	66.47	70.63	71.38	71.44	70.58	70.99(2.17%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	7	-80	-22	95	10.81	41%	-0.27	47.3	2.61%	0	0.9	75	0
3	Oct_21_2015	74.77	65.92	70.33	71.54	71.84	71.39	69.48(-3.22%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	21	-30	-16	133	16.86	41%	-0.28	43	2.61%	0	0.7	80	0
4	Oct_20_2015	74.98	65.45	70.06	71.35	71.9	71.39	71.79(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	54	60	15	172	11.09	43%	-0.25	36	2.58%	0	1.2	87	0
5	Oct_19_2015	75.17	64.94	69.31	70.93	71.02	72.29	72.65(0.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	70	130	28	195	10.89	43%	-0.23	32.8	2.58%	0	1.6	91	0

6	Oct_16_2015	75.34	64.46	68.44	70.46	70.33	71.52	71.99(0.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	93	110	49	223	15.95	44%	-0.25	33.7	2.59%	0	1.6	91	0
7	Oct_15_2015	75.53	64.09	67.57	69.8	69.7	69.75	71.78(4.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	76	0	28	221	18.2	44%	-0.28	33.2	2.6%	0	1.8	81	0
8	Oct_14_2015	75.74	63.75	66.31	68.99	69.13	69.13	68.54(-1.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	51	10	0	203	12.29	41%	-0.33	32.6	2.52%	0	1.2	74	0
9	Oct_13_2015	75.99	63.63	65.4	68.53	68.69	69.66	69.68(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	80	110	36	210	13.05	42%	-0.08	34.5	2.52%	0	1.5	78	0
10	Oct_12_2015	76.05	63.35	64.23	67.38	67.71	69.14	70.3(2.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	92	160	61	185	15.55	42%	-0.31	33.2	2.53%	0	1.9	70	0

11	Oct_9_2015	76.29	62.93	62.92	66.11	66.22	67.72	68.71(1.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	76	160	56	135	14.76	42%	-0.33	23.9	2.52%	0	1.7	59	0
12	Oct_8_2015	76.54	62.68	61.94	65.01	65.02	66.28	67.7(2.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	78	140	72	96	18.67	41%	-0.31	13.2	2.52%	0	1.6	51	0
13	Oct_7_2015	76.78	62.45	61.11	63.24	63.45	64.73	66.28(3.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	50	150	57	30	15.8	41%	-0.29	-5.6	2.52%	0	1.3	47	0
14	Oct_6_2015	77	62.31	60.42	61.78	61.84	63.75	63.92(-0.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	41	220	63	-25	9.62	38%	-0.31	-21.3	2.47%	0	0.6	38	0
15	Oct_5_2015	77.24	62.16	60.16	60.56	60.63	62.17	63.93(1.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	47	180	81	-55	13.58	38%	-0.32	-40.8	2.48%	0	0.6	46	0

16	Oct_2_2015	77.49	62.14	60.08	59.25	59.17	59.93	63.2(7.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	2	90	35	-98	22.36	38%	-0.32	-62.7	2.49%	0	0.4	51	0
17	Oct_1_2015	77.74	62.27	60.24	58.46	58.58	59.09	58.87(-0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-27	70	9	-134	8.15	33%	-0.38	-73.5	2.29%	0	-1.1	35	0
18	Sep_30_2015	78.04	62.61	60.91	58.67	58.78	58.41	58.97(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-29	-40	3	-126	16.77	33%	-0.36	-77.9	2.29%	0	-1.2	39	0
19	Sep_29_2015	78.32	62.92	61.7	58.87	58.88	58.08	57.82(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-67	-90	-46	-131	16.77	32%	-0.38	-85	2.28%	0	-1.8	35	0
20	Sep_28_2015	78.62	63.34	62.43	59.69	59.69	59.16	57.39(-3.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-57	-60	-43	-99	20.66	32%	-0.38	-83.6	2.29%	0	-2.2	45	0

21	Sep_25_2015	78.92	63.98	63.01	60.99	60.7	59.69	59.24(-1.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-54	-130	-46	-77	17.01	33%	-0.34	-69.1	2.28%	0	-1.8	41	0
22	Sep_24_2015	79.19	64.55	63.58	62.29	61.89	60.23	59.92(-0.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-67	-210	-68	-64	20.65	33%	-0.26	-53.2	2.28%	0	-1.7	38	0
23	Sep_23_2015	79.4	65	64.02	63.51	63.32	61.7	60(-3.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-70	-190	-77	-47	22.68	33%	-0.25	-50.7	2.28%	0	-1.9	40	0
24	Sep_22_2015	79.6	65.44	64.47	64.96	64.62	63.54	61.9(-3.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-42	-130	-53	-7	14.9	34%	-0.24	-48.3	2.26%	0	-1.4	45	0
25	Sep_21_2015	79.79	65.65	64.44	65.55	65.65	64.94	63.9(-2.81%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-5	-70	-8	6	22.36	35%		-62	2.24%	0	-0.7	46	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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