Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Oct. 20, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $71.7900 (-1.18%) ($71.5500 - $73.0000) on Tue. Oct. 20, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.58% (three month average)
RSI   87
Latest Price   $71.7900(-1.18%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 7.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock rally for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(66%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.29% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-4%)    UUP(-3%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.29% (StdDev 2.58%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $71.35(0.62%)
10 Day Moving Average   $70.06(2.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $65.45(9.69%)
To recent high   -14.7%
To recent low   25.1%
Market Cap   $192.593b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 7.94% (three month std-dev: 2.58%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_20_2015	74.98	65.45	70.06	71.35	71.9		71.79(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	54	60	15	172	11.09	43%	-0.25	36	2.58%	0	1.2	87	INF
2	Oct_19_2015	75.17	64.94	69.31	70.93	71.02	72.29	72.65(0.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	70	130	28	195	10.89	43%	-0.23	32.8	2.58%	0	1.6	91	INF
3	Oct_16_2015	75.34	64.46	68.44	70.46	70.33	71.52	71.99(0.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	93	110	49	223	15.95	44%	-0.25	33.7	2.59%	0	1.6	91	INF
4	Oct_15_2015	75.53	64.09	67.57	69.8	69.7	69.75	71.78(4.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	76	0	28	221	18.2	44%	-0.28	33.2	2.6%	0	1.8	81	INF
5	Oct_14_2015	75.74	63.75	66.31	68.99	69.13	69.13	68.54(-1.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	51	10	0	203	12.29	41%	-0.33	32.6	2.52%	0	1.2	74	INF

6	Oct_13_2015	75.99	63.63	65.4	68.53	68.69	69.66	69.68(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	80	110	36	210	13.05	42%	-0.08	34.5	2.52%	0	1.5	78	INF
7	Oct_12_2015	76.05	63.35	64.23	67.38	67.71	69.14	70.3(2.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	92	160	61	185	15.55	42%	-0.31	33.2	2.53%	0	1.9	70	INF
8	Oct_9_2015	76.29	62.93	62.92	66.11	66.22	67.72	68.71(1.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	76	160	56	135	14.76	42%	-0.33	23.9	2.52%	0	1.7	59	INF
9	Oct_8_2015	76.54	62.68	61.94	65.01	65.02	66.28	67.7(2.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	78	140	72	96	18.67	41%	-0.31	13.2	2.52%	0	1.6	51	INF
10	Oct_7_2015	76.78	62.45	61.11	63.24	63.45	64.73	66.28(3.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	50	150	57	30	15.8	41%	-0.29	-5.6	2.52%	0	1.3	47	INF

11	Oct_6_2015	77	62.31	60.42	61.78	61.84	63.75	63.92(-0.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	41	220	63	-25	9.62	38%	-0.31	-21.3	2.47%	0	0.6	38	INF
12	Oct_5_2015	77.24	62.16	60.16	60.56	60.63	62.17	63.93(1.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	47	180	81	-55	13.58	38%	-0.32	-40.8	2.48%	0	0.6	46	INF
13	Oct_2_2015	77.49	62.14	60.08	59.25	59.17	59.93	63.2(7.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	2	90	35	-98	22.36	38%	-0.32	-62.7	2.49%	0	0.4	51	INF
14	Oct_1_2015	77.74	62.27	60.24	58.46	58.58	59.09	58.87(-0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-27	70	9	-134	8.15	33%	-0.38	-73.5	2.29%	0	-1.1	35	INF
15	Sep_30_2015	78.04	62.61	60.91	58.67	58.78	58.41	58.97(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-29	-40	3	-126	16.77	33%	-0.36	-77.9	2.29%	0	-1.2	39	INF

16	Sep_29_2015	78.32	62.92	61.7	58.87	58.88	58.08	57.82(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-67	-90	-46	-131	16.77	32%	-0.38	-85	2.28%	0	-1.8	35	INF
17	Sep_28_2015	78.62	63.34	62.43	59.69	59.69	59.16	57.39(-3.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-57	-60	-43	-99	20.66	32%	-0.38	-83.6	2.29%	0	-2.2	45	INF
18	Sep_25_2015	78.92	63.98	63.01	60.99	60.7	59.69	59.24(-1.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-54	-130	-46	-77	17.01	33%	-0.34	-69.1	2.28%	0	-1.8	41	INF
19	Sep_24_2015	79.19	64.55	63.58	62.29	61.89	60.23	59.92(-0.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-67	-210	-68	-64	20.65	33%	-0.26	-53.2	2.28%	0	-1.7	38	INF
20	Sep_23_2015	79.4	65	64.02	63.51	63.32	61.7	60(-3.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-70	-190	-77	-47	22.68	33%	-0.25	-50.7	2.28%	0	-1.9	40	INF

21	Sep_22_2015	79.6	65.44	64.47	64.96	64.62	63.54	61.9(-3.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-42	-130	-53	-7	14.9	34%	-0.24	-48.3	2.26%	0	-1.4	45	INF
22	Sep_21_2015	79.79	65.65	64.44	65.55	65.65	64.94	63.9(-2.81%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-5	-70	-8	6	22.36	35%	-0.21	-62	2.24%	0	-0.7	46	INF
23	Sep_18_2015	79.96	65.86	64.45	65.29	65.28	65.7	65.75(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-7	40	-2	-21	20.13	36%	-0.2	-76.9	2.22%	0	-0	41	INF
24	Sep_17_2015	80.12	66.07	64.49	65.06	64.59	66.36	66(-1.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	30	170	47	-23	16.59	36%	-0.21	-82.6	2.22%	0	-0	40	INF
25	Sep_16_2015	80.29	66.39	64.41	64.63	64.02	64.87	67.23(3.67%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	38	60	64	-39	25.8	36%		-76.2	2.22%	0	0.3	47	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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