Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 6, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $78.9600 (-1.08%) ($78.6400 - $80.7500) on Thu. Aug. 6, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.63% (three month average)
RSI   30
Latest Price   $78.9600(-1.08%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA declines -0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA declines -2.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
FXI(66%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(57%)    QQQ(47%)    VT(45%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.815% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)    UUP(-2%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.815% (StdDev 1.63%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.1%

Resistance Level   $81.02
5 Day Moving Average   $78.8(0.2%)
10 Day Moving Average   $79.85(-1.11%)
20 Day Moving Average   $81.02(-2.54%)
To recent high   -15.9%
To recent low   1.3%
Market Cap   $211.828b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 2.2% (three month std-dev: 1.63%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.47%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 2.7%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -2.81%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 4.51%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.82%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150906

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_6_2015	84.44	81.02	79.85	78.8	78.96	79.69	78.96(-1.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-13	70	15	-95	9.3	48%	-0.07	-19.1	1.63%	0	-1.2	30	0
2	Aug_5_2015	84.5	81.05	80.31	79	78.84	79.18	79.82(1.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	1	20	27	-78	7.5	48%	-0.06	-24.1	1.63%	0	-0.7	44	0
3	Aug_4_2015	84.55	80.98	80.71	79.08	78.9	78.24	78.87(1.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-38	-70	-23	-84	8.5	48%	-0.06	-33	1.63%	0	-1.1	45	0
4	Aug_3_2015	84.6	81.03	81.09	79.42	79.43	78.51	77.99(-0.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-62	-80	-54	-85	9.28	48%	-0.05	-32.7	1.62%	0	-1.7	38	0
5	Jul_31_2015	84.64	81.17	81.58	80.1	80.02	79.56	78.34(-2.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-51	-40	-47	-63	12.69	48%	-0.05	-31.6	1.64%	0	-1.6	38	0

6	Jul_30_2015	84.68	81.37	82.11	81.04	80.48	80.35	79.96(-0.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-32	-30	-35	-24	6.93	51%	-0.02	-26.9	1.62%	0	-0.9	51	0
7	Jul_29_2015	84.7	81.49	82.3	81.82	81.48	80.49	80.26(-0.37%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-22	-100	-32	7	7.18	47%	-0.04	-21.5	1.63%	0	-0.8	58	0
8	Jul_28_2015	84.73	81.6	82.39	82.6	82.37	80.61	80.56(-1.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-51	-160	-75	21	12.12	47%	-0.02	-16.1	1.67%	0	-0.7	63	0
9	Jul_27_2015	84.75	81.63	82.51	83	83.1	82.48	81.4(-1.95%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-35	-50	-61	45	12.19	47%	-0.04	-22.5	1.67%	0	-0.1	58	0
10	Jul_24_2015	84.78	81.72	82.58	83.25	83.57	84.12	83.02(-1.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	35	60	16	92	8.76	53%	-0.04	-25	1.65%	0	0.8	60	0

11	Jul_23_2015	84.81	81.8	82.32	83.32	83.31	83.73	83.88(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	50	30	35	94	7.45	53%	-0.01	-25.6	1.68%	0	1.2	54	0
12	Jul_22_2015	84.82	81.83	81.85	82.85	82.92	83.02	84.15(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	33	10	22	66	11.21	53%	0.02	-35.7	1.68%	0	1.2	54	0
13	Jul_21_2015	84.8	81.85	81.24	82.17	82.47	82.89	82.54(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	18	50	14	29	5.75	50%	-0.01	-46.6	1.66%	0	0.4	50	0
14	Jul_20_2015	84.81	81.98	80.94	81.96	81.98	82.82	82.67(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	31	70	32	26	8.13	50%	-0.04	-47.1	1.66%	0	0.3	55	0
15	Jul_17_2015	84.84	82.11	80.68	81.8	81.63	82.06	83.36(2.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	30	42	14	14.51	47%	-0.02	-48.4	1.66%	0	0.6	48	0

16	Jul_16_2015	84.86	82.25	80.51	81.18	81.32	81.15	81.53(0.99%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	1	-10	10	-27	8.6	45%	-0.06	-52.5	1.67%	0	-0.3	37	0
17	Jul_15_2015	84.91	82.5	80.57	80.69	81.11	81.2	80.73(-0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-11	20	3	-53	9.51	45%	-0.05	-58.2	1.67%	0	-0.7	34	0
18	Jul_14_2015	84.95	82.76	80.7	80.13	80.91	81.49	81.5(-0.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	13	80	39	-65	7.52	45%	-0.05	-65.1	1.66%	0	-0.5	36	0
19	Jul_13_2015	84.99	82.98	80.65	79.75	79.87	81.02	81.86(1.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	5	110	37	-93	10.35	45%	-0.06	-71.5	1.67%	0	-0.4	35	0
20	Jul_10_2015	85.04	83.21	80.75	79.43	79.87	80.33	80.3(1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	4	90	43	-112	11.22	42%	-0.07	-79.1	1.65%	0	-1	29	0

21	Jul_9_2015	85.1	83.55	81.2	79.78	79.2	78.72	79.04(1.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-32	-60	-0	-128	19.78	42%	-0.09	-81.2	1.65%	0	-1.6	20	0
22	Jul_8_2015	85.18	84.05	81.81	80.46	79.71	78.08	77.94(-2.11%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-103	-170	-86	-155	22.71	47%	-0.11	-78.8	1.64%	0	-2.1	13	0
23	Jul_7_2015	85.27	84.55	82.54	81.33	80.99	79.69	79.62(-0.76%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-85	-120	-70	-130	34.22	49%	-0.07	-84.4	1.7%	0	-1.9	22	0
24	Jul_6_2015	85.33	84.99	83.15	81.62	81.95	81.34	80.23(-2.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-60	-40	-41	-116	11.86	49%	-0.13	-92.9	1.69%	0	-2	23	0
25	Jul_2_2015	85.44	85.51	83.71	82.23	82.2	82.29	82.07(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-45	10	-26	-102	6.76	52%		-78.9	1.67%	0	-1.3	25	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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