Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jun. 29, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $81.0700 (-2.65%) ($80.8000 - $82.8800) on Mon. Jun. 29, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.66% (three month average)
RSI   22
Latest Price   $81.0700(-2.65%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA declines -1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA declines -2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
FXI(66%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(57%)    QQQ(47%)    VT(45%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.83% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-9%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)    UUP(-2%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.83% (StdDev 1.66%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.7%

Resistance Level   $86.76
5 Day Moving Average   $83.97(-3.45%)
10 Day Moving Average   $85(-4.62%)
20 Day Moving Average   $86.76(-6.56%)
To recent high   -13.6%
To recent low   1.9%
Market Cap   $217.488b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 2.95% (three month std-dev: 1.66%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 12 Average positive next day return: 1.37%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.55%(50%) Sample size 12 Average positive next three day return: 4.24%(42%) Average negative next three day return: -2.62%(58%) Sample size 12 Average positive next weekly return: 4.24%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.2%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150729

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_29_2015	85.57	86.76	85	83.97	84	82.72	81.07(-2.65%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-92	-110	-87	-106	15.2	52%	-0.05	-70.2	1.66%	0	-2.2	22	0
2	Jun_26_2015	85.61	87.26	85.55	84.89	84.99	84.57	83.28(-2.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-47	-30	-38	-75	12.67	56%	-0.05	-75.9	1.63%	0	-1.8	25	0
3	Jun_25_2015	85.65	87.58	85.9	85.38	85.51	85.28	85.24(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-27	-10	-12	-71	8.95	60%	-0.06	-82.6	1.6%	0	-1.1	22	0
4	Jun_24_2015	85.7	87.86	86.09	85.68	85.69	85.4	85.17(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-38	-20	-23	-82	9.43	60%	-0.07	-74.3	1.6%	0	-1.2	23	0
5	Jun_23_2015	85.76	88.22	86.45	86.01	86.1	85.75	85.08(-0.7%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-32	-30	-16	-80	11.41	60%	-0.06	-61	1.6%	0	-1.3	22	0

6	Jun_22_2015	85.81	88.59	86.7	86.21	86.44	85.97	85.68(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-35	-30	-17	-88	7.15	60%	-0.03	-51.2	1.61%	0	-1.3	25	0
7	Jun_19_2015	85.84	88.97	86.96	86.3	86.48	86.46	85.74(-1.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-38	0	-18	-97	10.32	60%	-0.05	-39.4	1.61%	0	-1.4	25	0
8	Jun_18_2015	85.88	89.37	87.44	86.48	86.58	86.91	86.75(-0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-12	30	10	-78	11.74	60%	-0.14	-26.5	1.61%	0	-1.1	39	0
9	Jun_17_2015	86	89.58	87.8	86.57	86.63	86.51	86.8(0.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-24	-10	-4	-84	10.24	60%	-0.2	-20.5	1.61%	0	-1.2	33	0
10	Jun_16_2015	86.17	89.67	88.19	86.99	86.95	86.26	86.09(-0.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-45	-60	-29	-93	10.97	63%	-0.21	-13.7	1.61%	0	-1.6	25	0

11	Jun_15_2015	86.35	89.76	88.63	87.29	87.47	86.75	86.12(-0.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-53	-50	-38	-97	10.23	63%	-0.2	-9.7	1.64%	0	-1.6	26	0
12	Jun_12_2015	86.52	89.9	89.11	87.72	87.74	87.64	86.63(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-55	-10	-40	-98	9.98	63%	-0.21	-1.3	1.64%	0	-1.6	25	0
13	Jun_11_2015	86.7	90.02	89.41	88.54	88.39	88.2	87.21(-1.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-29	-20	-10	-86	13.72	63%	-0.18	15.5	1.64%	0	-1.4	25	0
14	Jun_10_2015	86.86	90.07	89.8	89.21	89.05	87.84	88.9(1.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-51	-100	-40	-84	12.55	66%	-0.14	43.7	1.63%	0	-0.6	46	0
15	Jun_9_2015	86.98	89.98	90.15	89.59	89.68	88.59	87.58(-0.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-74	-80	-74	-75	16.08	62%	0.01	62.9	1.62%	0	-1.2	52	0

16	Jun_8_2015	86.97	89.97	90.65	90.18	90.47	90.25	88.29(-2.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-26	-10	-27	-24	15.7	62%	-0.1	83.1	1.64%	0	-0.8	57	0
17	Jun_5_2015	87.06	89.93	91.15	90.68	90.72	90.78	90.71(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	12	10	9	19	11.35	67%	-0.07	101.2	1.62%	0	0.4	59	0
18	Jun_4_2015	87.12	89.71	91.45	90.4	90.6	90.68	90.59(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	8	10	1	30	8.69	71%	-0.1	102.3	1.62%	0	0.4	59	0
19	Jun_3_2015	87.21	89.23	91.48	90.47	90.51	90.66	90.79(0.31%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	8	10	-3	40	9.43	66%	-0.11	74.2	1.72%	0	0.5	62	0
20	Jun_2_2015	87.31	88.71	91.26	90.83	90.67	90.52	90.51(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	7	-20	-8	51	9.87	66%	-0.14	58.9	1.77%	0	0.5	64	0

21	Jun_1_2015	87.43	88.24	90.98	91.23	91.09	90.36	90.78(1.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-9	-60	-30	54	9.91	66%	-0.14	52.4	1.77%	0	0.6	65	0
22	May_29_2015	87.55	87.78	90.77	91.73	91.73	90.83	89.32(-1.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-25	-70	-54	61	13.89	66%	-0.19	50	1.78%	0	0.4	60	0
23	May_28_2015	87.72	87.4	90.72	92.64	92.63	91.82	90.95(-1.78%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	5	-60	-28	102	14.21	69%	-0.13	53.4	1.78%	0	0.8	69	0
24	May_27_2015	87.83	86.98	90.4	92.59	92.99	92.63	92.6(0.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	37	-10	1	144	9.52	72%	-0.13	53.8	1.77%	0	1.3	86	0
25	May_26_2015	87.94	86.58	89.82	91.72	92.21	93.43	92.52(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	72	110	39	170	15.67	72%		53.8	1.77%	0	1.4	86	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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