Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ BABA: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. Nov. 13, 2014

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $114.8400 (-2.84%) ($114.5500 - $120.0000) on Thu. Nov. 13, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.33% (three month average)
RSI   78
Latest Price   $114.8400(-2.84%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
FXI(63%)    EEM(57%)    VWO(56%)    QQQ(47%)    VT(44%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.165% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)    UUP(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.165% (StdDev 2.33%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -3.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $116.26(-1.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $111.17(3.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $103.18(11.3%)
To recent high   -3.6%
To recent low   35.2%
Market Cap   $308.084b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 9.77% (three month std-dev: 2.33%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 5.38%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.62%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 3.54%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -4.13%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 6.09%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -6.89%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141213

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_13_2014	95.37	103.18	111.17	116.26	116.82	116.88	114.84(-2.84%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	85	20	32	245	62.16	64%	0.53	82.2	2.33%	0	1.2	78	INF
2	Nov_12_2014	94.87	101.88	109.63	115.6	115.9	116.17	118.2(3.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	81	20	23	255	53.91	67%	0.66	80.1	2.29%	0	1.6	85	INF
3	Nov_11_2014	94.25	100.24	107.64	113.7	114.24	116.76	114.54(-3.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	114	170	62	269	71.15	65%	0.59	75.8	2.28%	0	1.4	85	INF
4	Nov_10_2014	93.7	98.75	106.14	112	112.41	115.64	119.15(4.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	209	210	169	327	75.97	71%	0.75	71.6	2.19%	0	2.1	95	INF
5	Nov_7_2014	93	96.99	103.92	108.53	108.75	111.72	114.56(2.68%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	172	200	131	294	51.46	68%	0.67	66.1	2.15%	0	2	95	INF

6	Nov_6_2014	92.38	95.51	101.98	105.34	105.58	109.19	111.57(2.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	174	250	140	274	33.61	66%	0.61	60.9	2.15%	0	2.1	94	INF
7	Nov_5_2014	91.82	94.31	100.22	102.77	102.91	105.77	108.67(2.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	171	200	143	255	48.34	63%	0.56	59.2	2.15%	0	2.1	89	INF
8	Nov_4_2014	91.31	93.23	98.5	100.7	100.42	101.96	106.07(4.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	108	100	72	214	67.81	61%	0.51	59.1	2.15%	0	2.1	90	INF
9	Nov_3_2014	90.85	92.26	96.96	99.42	99.33	100.05	101.8(3.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	83	50	40	210	41.3	55%	0.4	59.6	2.07%	0	1.8	89	INF
10	Oct_31_2014	90.49	91.55	95.63	98.62	99.05	98.88	98.6(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	66	0	19	207	18.13	50%	0.3	60.4	2.04%	0	1.4	87	INF

11	Oct_30_2014	90.22	91	94.6	98.05	98.61	98.62	98.73(0.43%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	52	20	3	200	15.48	50%	0.32	58	2.07%	0	1.6	83	INF
12	Oct_29_2014	89.93	90.39	93.61	97.2	97.96	99.23	98.31(-1.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	86	110	46	204	28.66	50%	0.33	54.8	2.11%	0	1.8	70	INF
13	Oct_28_2014	89.63	89.75	92.36	95.86	96.7	98.59	99.68(1.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	115	160	89	193	32.13	50%	0.41	46.1	2.12%	0	2.5	74	INF
14	Oct_27_2014	89.26	89.16	90.86	94.11	94.8	96.69	97.79(2.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	106	160	89	156	28.3	50%	0.37	43.4	2.14%	0	2.6	73	INF
15	Oct_24_2014	88.93	88.66	89.56	92.2	92.99	94.81	95.76(1.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	94	160	87	114	32.13	50%	0.3	31.6	2.14%	0	2.6	68	INF

16	Oct_23_2014	88.66	88.34	88.53	90.63	91.12	92.91	94.45(3.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	68	150	67	72	20.64	50%	0.28	12	2.17%	0	2.8	66	INF
17	Oct_22_2014	88.41	88.02	87.89	89.51	89.99	91.17	91.63(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	72	110	75	62	20.36	44%	0.16	0	2.12%	0	2	64	INF
18	Oct_21_2014	88.27	87.94	87.5	88.3	88.66	89.33	90.9(2.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	42	70	44	34	23.24	44%	0.14	0	2.16%	0	1.8	65	INF
19	Oct_20_2014	88.15	87.74	87.14	87.11	87.28	88.81	88.26(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	31	130	39	7	9.89	36%	0	0	2.1%	0	0.3	47	INF
20	Oct_17_2014	88.15	87.81	87.14	86.49	86.42	87.99	87.91(-1.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	53	120	68	6	17.36	36%	-0.01	0	2.14%	0	0	47	INF

21	Oct_16_2014	88.16	88.07	87.11	86.08	85.6	85.75	88.85(3.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	9	-0	20	-26	15.23	36%	0.03	0	2.19%	0	0.4	43	INF
22	Oct_15_2014	88.13	88.07	86.92	86.07	85.67	84.85	85.6(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-32	-80	-37	-15	16.82	22%	-0.16	0	2.03%	0	40	39	INF
23	Oct_14_2014	88.27	88.07	86.99	86.61	86.71	85.46	84.95(-0.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-36	-100	-42	-17	15.57	22%	-0.21	0	2.06%	0	40.3	33	INF
24	Oct_13_2014	88.46	88.07	87.39	87.15	87.46	86.49	85.12(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-42	-70	-49	-20	14.85	22%	-0.24	0	2.12%	0	42.3	47	INF
25	Oct_10_2014	88.67	88.07	87.77	87.79	88	87.97	85.88(-3.28%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-18	0	-21	-8	15.43	22%		0	2.19%	0	45.7	42	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.