Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Nov. 28, 2016

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $163.4200 (1.57%) ($161.6100 - $164.7200) on Mon. Nov. 28, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.36% (three month average)
RSI   40
Latest Price   $163.4200(1.57%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB declines -2.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLRE(77%)    SPLV(68%)    SDY(66%)    XLU(64%)    IWD(63%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.68% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-16%)    VIXM(-9%)    TLT(-9%)    GDXJ(-9%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.68% (StdDev 1.36%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.1%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $158.57(-2.97%)
Resistance Level   $166.56
5 Day Moving Average   $161.38(1.26%)
10 Day Moving Average   $163.48(-0.04%)
20 Day Moving Average   $166.56(-1.89%)
To recent high   -10.9%
To recent low   2.3%
Market Cap   $23b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 2.46% (three month std-dev: 1.36%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 12 Average positive next day return: 1.27%(67%) Average negative next day return: -1.27%(33%) Sample size 12 Average positive next three day return: 3.17%(58%) Average negative next three day return: -2.59%(42%) Sample size 12 Average positive next weekly return: 4.38%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.67%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161228

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_28_2016	174.8	166.56	163.48	161.38	161.26	161.72	163.42(1.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	25	20	60	-81	0.81	45%	-0.12	-41.1	1.36%	0	-0.8	40	0
2	Nov_25_2016	175.01	166.78	163.87	161.16	160.92	160.34	160.9(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-62	-30	-37	-137	0.43	43%	-0.15	-43.8	1.34%	0	-1.5	35	0
3	Nov_23_2016	175.28	167.06	164.45	161.8	161.55	160.8	160.44(-1.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-91	-40	-70	-153	1.07	43%	-0.13	-46.2	1.33%	0	-1.8	36	0
4	Nov_22_2016	175.51	167.52	165.34	163.05	162.95	161.51	162.4(1.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-80	-60	-62	-134	1.45	43%	-0.07	-41.1	1.33%	0	-1.5	40	0
5	Nov_21_2016	175.64	167.78	166.35	163.6	164.12	162.31	159.75(-1.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-142	-70	-139	-152	1.14	41%	-0.12	-42.1	1.31%	0	-2.5	36	0

6	Nov_18_2016	175.85	168.25	167.49	165.89	165.81	164.39	162.32(-1.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-103	-60	-102	-106	0.92	43%	-0.1	-28.8	1.3%	0	-2.3	36	0
7	Nov_17_2016	176.03	168.57	168.44	166.95	167.25	165.92	164.09(-1.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-68	-50	-68	-68	0.66	43%	-0.08	-23.3	1.29%	0	-2	47	0
8	Nov_16_2016	176.17	168.8	169.13	167.44	167.78	167.23	166.69(0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-57	-20	-61	-46	0.69	43%	-0.07	-19.2	1.28%	0	-1	54	0
9	Nov_15_2016	176.29	168.93	169.45	167.96	167.94	168.58	165.13(-3.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-13	30	-11	-17	1.46	43%	-0.06	-9.5	1.29%	0	-1.9	45	0
10	Nov_14_2016	176.39	169.14	169.91	169.52	168.22	168.33	171.2(2.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	25	-20	24	27	1.06	46%	-0.01	19	1.22%	0	1.2	58	0

11	Nov_11_2016	176.4	169.02	169.89	169.43	169.01	167.3	167.66(0.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-52	-80	-69	-2	1.19	42%	-0.04	23.8	1.19%	0	-0.8	50	0
12	Nov_10_2016	176.47	169.09	169.89	170.22	170.09	168.11	166.53(-1.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-114	-80	-145	-20	1.27	41%	-0.05	46	1.19%	0	-1.5	49	0
13	Nov_9_2016	176.56	169.19	169.92	171.03	171.17	170.72	169.3(-2.09%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.1	-42	-20	-63	21	0.86	42%	-0.03	65.6	1.19%	0	0.1	53	0
14	Nov_8_2016	176.62	169.11	169.91	171.09	171.39	172.06	172.92(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	46	30	40	65	0.53	47%	-0.01	66	1.16%	0	2.3	58	0
15	Nov_7_2016	176.63	168.8	169.3	170.35	170.85	171.62	170.72(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	51	40	51	52	0.71	45%	-0.01	45.5	1.17%	0	1.3	55	0

16	Nov_4_2016	176.65	168.62	169.04	170.45	170.3	170.73	171.61(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	20	46	50	0.83	45%	-0.02	26.4	1.17%	0	1.9	56	0
17	Nov_3_2016	176.68	168.32	168.65	169.62	169.91	170.09	170.61(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	36	10	38	31	0.81	44%	-0.01	-26.5	1.17%	0	1.6	54	0
18	Nov_2_2016	176.7	168.13	168.38	168.63	169.17	169.87	169.57(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	21	40	25	9	0.82	43%	-0.01	-91	1.17%	0	1.1	54	0
19	Nov_1_2016	176.71	168	168.32	168.55	168.46	169.74	169.26(-1.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	63	50	73	31	0.83	43%	-0.01	-116.7	1.18%	0	0.8	55	0
20	Oct_31_2016	176.72	168.14	168.25	168.07	167.9	168.47	171.18(2.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	78	20	92	35	0.68	43%	0.01	-122	1.18%	0	1.5	63	0

21	Oct_28_2016	176.71	168.22	168	167.48	166.66	167.19	167.46(1.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-14	10	-15	-12	0.9	44%	-0.02	-109.7	1.17%	0	-0.3	53	0
22	Oct_27_2016	176.74	168.69	168.15	167.57	166.99	167.33	165.7(-2.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	38	0	43	22	1.12	43%	-0.02	-91	1.17%	0	-0.8	54	0
23	Oct_26_2016	176.78	169.34	168.42	167.57	167.11	166.13	169.13(1.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-24	-60	-33	3	0.87	43%	0	-75.8	1.16%	0	-0	60	0
24	Oct_25_2016	176.78	169.9	168.27	168.06	167.5	166.65	166.87(-0.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-74	-50	-92	-19	1.72	42%	-0.02	-64.3	1.16%	0	-0.6	51	0
25	Oct_24_2016	176.82	170.6	168.3	168.44	168.49	168.09	168.22(0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-14	-20	-19	2	0.61	42%		-51.7	1.15%	0	-0.4	32	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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