Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 1, 2016

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $186.7300 (0.58%) ($183.6100 - $187.4800) on Mon. Aug. 1, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.04% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $186.7300(0.58%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB declines -0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Rotation from value to growth for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLRE(77%)    SPLV(68%)    SDY(65%)    XLU(64%)    IWD(62%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.52% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-16%)    VIXM(-10%)    TLT(-8%)    GDXJ(-7%)    DIA(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.52% (StdDev 1.04%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $183.37(1.83%)
10 Day Moving Average   $183.94(1.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $183.98(1.49%)
To recent high   -2.2%
To recent low   10.1%
Market Cap   $26.281b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 1.03% (three month std-dev: 1.04%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 1.49%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.94%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 1.59%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 2.58%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160901

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_1_2016	181.79	183.98	183.94	183.37	182.84	185.11	186.73(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	111	80	138	31	0.66	49%	0.02	58.3	1.04%	0	1.5	51	INF
2	Jul_29_2016	181.76	183.68	183.56	183.06	182.09	182.75	185.65(1.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	75	10	98	5	0.92	47%	0.04	73.1	1.05%	0	1	52	INF
3	Jul_28_2016	181.69	183.43	183.3	182.99	182.32	180.57	182.28(1.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-72	-80	-73	-70	0.98	44%	0.01	83.3	1.04%	0	-0.6	43	INF
4	Jul_27_2016	181.68	183.26	183.61	183.33	183.26	181.44	179.76(-1.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-144	-70	-162	-88	2.25	42%	0.01	84.7	1.03%	0	-1.5	51	INF
5	Jul_26_2016	181.67	183.21	184.38	184.14	184.17	184.06	182.42(-1.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-50	-0	-61	-18	0.9	44%	0.01	94	1.03%	0	-0.3	54	INF

6	Jul_25_2016	181.65	182.88	184.72	184.5	184.42	185.08	185.17(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	55	20	58	45	0.71	46%	0.03	82.4	1.01%	0	0.8	57	INF
7	Jul_22_2016	181.6	182.29	184.66	184.1	183.96	184.27	185.32(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	42	10	42	42	0.73	49%	0.03	63.9	1.01%	0	0.8	63	INF
8	Jul_21_2016	181.54	181.78	184.61	183.69	183.52	183.77	184(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	11	10	3	33	0.62	49%	0.03	58.1	1.02%	0	0.6	62	INF
9	Jul_20_2016	181.48	181.35	184.34	183.98	183.54	183.64	183.77(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	5	-0	-8	42	0.4	45%	0.03	60.3	1.03%	0	0.6	66	INF
10	Jul_19_2016	181.42	180.93	184.18	184.71	184.17	183.27	184.24(0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-11	-40	-33	56	0.46	45%	0.07	69.3	1.07%	0	0.8	68	INF

11	Jul_18_2016	181.29	180.44	184.06	184.99	184.98	183.44	183.16(-0.05%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-52	-60	-90	62	0.48	45%	0.07	72.9	1.07%	0	0.6	72	INF
12	Jul_15_2016	181.17	179.97	183.86	185.27	185.39	185.06	183.26(-1.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-32	-10	-75	97	0.83	48%	0.06	76.3	1.08%	0	0.7	76	INF
13	Jul_14_2016	181.07	179.53	183.61	185.61	185.55	186.52	185.45(-1.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	94	40	66	178	0.48	46%	0.09	81.7	1.09%	0	1.3	73	INF
14	Jul_13_2016	180.91	178.88	182.91	184.69	184.85	185.71	187.43(0.95%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	120	40	99	182	0.71	44%	0.1	80.2	1.13%	0	1.8	77	INF
15	Jul_12_2016	180.73	178.01	181.95	183.58	183.42	184.57	185.67(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	75	40	48	154	0.74	44%	0.08	76.3	1.14%	0	1.7	75	INF

16	Jul_11_2016	180.58	177.25	180.9	183.03	182.77	183.99	184.55(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	119	40	101	173	0.68	42%	0.08	76.1	1.13%	0	1.6	76	INF
17	Jul_8_2016	180.44	176.51	179.74	182.26	182.12	182.27	184.94(2.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	78	0	57	140	1.1	42%	0.09	70.6	1.16%	0	1.9	77	INF
18	Jul_7_2016	180.27	175.76	178.7	181.35	181.44	181.55	180.85(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	28	10	0	110	0.55	39%	0.08	62.9	1.13%	0	1.3	69	INF
19	Jul_6_2016	180.13	175.2	178.11	180.81	180.95	181.96	181.88(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	78	40	59	134	0.73	39%	0.09	51.5	1.13%	0	1.7	76	INF
20	Jul_5_2016	179.96	174.58	177.41	180.02	180.06	181.33	182.91(1.21%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	129	50	118	160	0.69	39%	0.1	37.1	1.13%	0	2.2	83	INF

21	Jul_1_2016	179.78	173.92	176.49	178.43	178.54	179.94	180.72(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	126	60	119	147	0.79	37%	0.11	16.2	1.11%	0	2	78	INF
22	Jun_30_2016	179.58	173.51	175.74	176.8	176.68	178.79	180.39(1.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	136	80	135	137	0.81	37%	0.09	-6.9	1.1%	0	2.3	78	INF
23	Jun_29_2016	179.42	173.26	175.08	175.67	174.92	177.14	178.15(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	144	80	146	136	0.83	37%	0.1	-26.5	1.09%	0	1.8	75	INF
24	Jun_28_2016	179.24	173.13	174.51	175.03	174.18	174.56	177.91(1.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	97	0	92	112	1.07	37%	0.08	-37	1.11%	0	1.7	76	INF
25	Jun_27_2016	179.1	173.17	173.72	174.46	174.08	172.71	174.98(1.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-31	-60	-56	46	1.08	34%		-45.6	1.09%	0	0.7	70	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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