Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ AVB: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. May. 11, 2016

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $187.0800 (-2.05%) ($185.9000 - $191.1000) on Wed. May. 11, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.16% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $187.0800(-2.05%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB advances 2.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLRE(77%)    SPLV(68%)    SDY(65%)    XLU(63%)    IWD(61%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.58% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-15%)    VIXM(-11%)    TLT(-7%)    GDXJ(-7%)    IPO(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.58% (StdDev 1.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2%

5 Day Moving Average   $188.26(-0.63%)
10 Day Moving Average   $184.75(1.26%)
20 Day Moving Average   $182.75(2.37%)
To recent high   -2.1%
To recent low   15.8%
Market Cap   $26.33b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 2.07% (three month std-dev: 1.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.41%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.93%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 2.89%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.45%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 3.62%(25%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.74%(75%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160611

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_11_2016	179.34	182.75	184.75	188.26	188.44	189.46	187.08(-2.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	58	40	32	134	0.68	60%	0.03	20.8	1.16%	0	1.1	68	INF
2	May_10_2016	179.28	182.52	184.01	187.87	187.71	189.23	191(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	156	50	148	179	0.85	66%	0.07	10.8	1.15%	0	2.3	71	INF
3	May_9_2016	179.16	182.18	183.02	185.95	185.72	187.43	188.98(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	121	60	117	131	0.53	63%	0.06	-10	1.17%	0	2.1	57	INF
4	May_6_2016	179.05	182.18	182.23	184.32	183.82	186.18	187.71(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	146	80	155	117	0.65	60%	0.05	-29.3	1.21%	0	1.7	56	INF
5	May_5_2016	178.96	181.95	181.42	182.14	182	184	186.53(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	150	70	171	87	0.74	56%	0.03	-48.9	1.21%	0	1.4	58	INF

6	May_4_2016	178.9	181.97	180.51	180.74	179.88	181.45	185.15(2.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	68	50	81	29	1.07	56%	0.05	-59.5	1.27%	0	0.9	62	INF
7	May_3_2016	178.81	182.13	179.88	179.62	179.25	180.01	181.38(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	58	20	77	2	0.62	54%	0.04	-63.3	1.25%	0	-0.2	47	INF
8	May_2_2016	178.74	182.51	180.05	179.69	178.84	178.31	180.83(2.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-31	-30	-26	-44	0.57	51%	0.03	-59.1	1.25%	0	-0.4	42	INF
9	Apr_29_2016	178.68	182.92	180.24	179.85	179.56	178.49	176.79(-1.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-62	-50	-62	-63	0.9	48%	0.02	-53	1.24%	0	-1.4	35	INF
10	Apr_28_2016	178.65	183.58	180.74	180.53	180.4	179.36	179.56(0.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-51	-40	-46	-66	0.63	46%	0.02	-44.6	1.23%	0	-0.9	33	INF

11	Apr_27_2016	178.62	184.1	180.65	180.14	180.33	180.63	179.52(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-44	10	-30	-87	1.21	46%	0	-43.3	1.28%	0	-1.1	36	INF
12	Apr_26_2016	178.62	184.57	181	180.12	180.23	181.45	181.75(0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	24	50	55	-68	0.49	49%	0.02	-41	1.28%	0	-0.7	36	INF
13	Apr_25_2016	178.59	184.96	181.33	180.49	180.12	180.04	181.65(0.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-5	-10	22	-86	0.48	49%	-0.01	-34.5	1.31%	0	-0.8	36	INF
14	Apr_22_2016	178.6	185.23	181.67	180.79	180.74	179.02	180.17(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-79	-70	-63	-127	0.58	51%	0.02	-33	1.3%	0	-1.2	33	INF
15	Apr_21_2016	178.56	185.51	182.52	181.04	181.4	180.2	177.62(-1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-104	-40	-93	-138	0.87	49%	-0.02	-37.3	1.31%	0	-2	26	INF

16	Apr_20_2016	178.59	185.96	183.56	181.17	181.67	182.45	179.41(-2.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-30	40	-4	-108	0.71	45%	-0.03	-40.6	1.3%	0	-1.8	28	INF
17	Apr_19_2016	178.65	186.32	184.56	181.9	181.33	182.61	183.62(0.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	22	40	53	-71	0.61	49%	0.01	-37	1.36%	0	-0.8	38	INF
18	Apr_18_2016	178.63	186.41	185.13	182.3	181.66	180.89	183.11(0.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-15	-40	8	-85	0.75	49%	0.01	-31.6	1.37%	0	-1	35	INF
19	Apr_15_2016	178.62	186.63	185.77	182.79	182.5	180.05	181.42(1.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-135	-100	-136	-132	0.71	49%	0.02	-23.5	1.38%	0	-1.7	40	INF
20	Apr_14_2016	178.59	187.02	186.64	184.34	184.25	182.43	178.28(-2.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-145	-70	-156	-113	1.1	47%	-0.02	4.6	1.36%	0	-3	38	INF

21	Apr_13_2016	178.62	187.43	187.9	186.28	186.46	184.94	183.09(-1.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-67	-50	-74	-46	0.97	49%	0.02	41.6	1.32%	0	-2.1	47	INF
22	Apr_12_2016	178.58	187.52	188.52	187.55	187.39	186.06	185.61(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-84	-50	-101	-34	0.76	50%	0.02	72.2	1.32%	0	-0.9	52	INF
23	Apr_11_2016	178.54	187.43	188.95	188.36	188.33	187.98	185.54(-1.93%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.3	-35	-10	-49	9	0.72	50%	0.03	85.3	1.32%	0	-0.9	55	INF
24	Apr_8_2016	178.48	187.35	189.15	189.19	188.98	188.71	189.2(0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	8	-10	-3	39	0.5	51%	0.07	97.6	1.3%	0	0.8	58	INF
25	Apr_7_2016	178.36	186.89	188.78	189.33	189.09	188.69	187.94(-0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-20	-20	-34	21	0.5	51%		81.6	1.32%	0	0.4	46	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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