Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Nov. 17, 2015

Trading Signals: AVB Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(AvalonBay Communities Inc.)
AVB latest price $175.1600 (0.42%) ($173.3100 - $176.6300) on Tue. Nov. 17, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.4% (three month average)
RSI   47
Latest Price   $175.1600(0.42%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AVB advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AVB declines -1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AVB advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SDY(64%)    XLU(63%)    IWD(61%)    VYM(60%)    IVE(59%)
Factors Impacting AVB price   AVB will decline at least -0.7% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-14%)    VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-8%)    GDXJ(-7%)    IGOV(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.7% (StdDev 1.4%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $171.21(-2.26%)
Resistance Level   $176.87
5 Day Moving Average   $174(0.67%)
10 Day Moving Average   $174.07(0.63%)
20 Day Moving Average   $176.87(-0.97%)
To recent high   -5.5%
To recent low   9.1%
Market Cap   $24.653b

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. It operates through the following segments: Established Communities, Other Stabilized Communities, and Development or Redevelopment Communities. The Established Communities segment refers to the operating communities that were owned and had stabilized occupancy. The Other Stabilized Communities segment includes all other completed communities that have stabilized occupancy. The Development or Redevelopment Communities segment consists of communities that are under construction. The company was founded by Gilbert M. Meyer in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, VA.

$. AVB price fluctuates within 2.4% (three month std-dev: 1.4%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -2.06%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -7.87%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.07%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151217

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_17_2015	172.23	176.87	174.07	174	173.77	173.74	175.16(0.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	16	-10	31	-29	0.56	41%	0.09	-48.8	1.4%	0	-0.4	47	INF
2	Nov_16_2015	172.07	177.32	174.28	173.46	173.45	173.19	174.42(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-19	-10	-7	-55	0.7	41%	0.08	-44.7	1.4%	0	-0.6	42	INF
3	Nov_13_2015	171.94	177.83	174.8	172.62	173.09	173.81	172.64(-0.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-3	40	17	-61	0.5	41%	0.06	-44.8	1.4%	0	-1.1	34	INF
4	Nov_12_2015	171.83	178.38	175.04	172.68	172.44	173.7	173.82(-0.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	7	50	34	-73	0.7	41%	0.07	-41.8	1.39%	0	-1	35	INF
5	Nov_11_2015	171.71	178.74	175.45	173.4	172.8	172.37	173.94(0.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-11	-30	14	-87	0.39	41%	0.06	-36.5	1.39%	0	-1.1	32	INF

6	Nov_10_2015	171.6	178.97	175.76	174.23	173.81	171.18	172.49(1.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-125	-110	-118	-146	0.72	41%	0.05	-31.8	1.39%	0	-1.6	31	INF
7	Nov_9_2015	171.52	179.37	176.42	175.28	175.49	173.22	170.21(-1.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-172	-90	-173	-169	0.79	41%	0.02	-22.1	1.38%	0	-2.4	25	INF
8	Nov_6_2015	171.48	179.91	177.62	177.27	177.33	176.44	172.95(-2.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-74	-30	-63	-108	0.66	43%	0.03	-5.5	1.37%	0	-2.1	27	INF
9	Nov_5_2015	171.43	180.26	178.61	177.64	177.85	177.76	177.42(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-31	0	-12	-87	0.52	45%	0.06	2.5	1.34%	0	-1	38	INF
10	Nov_4_2015	171.32	180.33	179.31	177.75	177.59	178.22	178.1(0.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-3	20	18	-66	0.66	45%	0.08	7.9	1.34%	0	-0.8	46	INF

11	Nov_3_2015	171.18	180.3	179.89	177.54	177.33	177.94	177.71(-1.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	17	20	38	-48	0.66	45%	0.09	8.8	1.34%	0	-0.8	52	INF
12	Nov_2_2015	171.03	180.23	180.57	177.78	177.19	176.96	180.15(3.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-17	-20	-5	-53	0.97	47%	0.1	15	1.33%	0	-0	52	INF
13	Oct_30_2015	170.86	180.09	181.04	178.15	177.65	176.72	174.83(-1.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-77	-50	-80	-69	0.89	43%	0.07	31.7	1.28%	0	-1.6	41	INF
14	Oct_29_2015	170.74	180.19	181.96	179.75	179.29	177.42	177.95(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-85	-80	-99	-44	0.82	45%	0.1	53.9	1.26%	0	-0.7	50	INF
15	Oct_28_2015	170.57	180.09	182.3	181.12	180.99	178.58	177.06(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-127	-100	-156	-40	0.97	45%	0.1	71.7	1.26%	0	-0.9	51	INF

16	Oct_27_2015	170.4	180.03	182.48	182.56	182.73	181.16	178.91(-1.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-102	-60	-133	-7	1.19	45%	0.11	82.7	1.26%	0	-0.3	58	INF
17	Oct_26_2015	170.22	179.76	182.63	183.71	184.14	183.41	182(-0.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-26	-20	-53	55	0.82	47%	0.12	77.9	1.24%	0	0.5	69	INF
18	Oct_23_2015	170.01	179.08	182.48	184.36	184.61	184.31	182.85(-1.05%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	2	-10	-26	85	0.67	47%	0.13	72.9	1.24%	0	0.8	66	INF
19	Oct_22_2015	169.79	178.49	182.12	184.48	184.71	184.87	184.79(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	44	10	20	116	0.82	47%	0.14	70.5	1.23%	0	1.3	74	INF
20	Oct_21_2015	169.55	177.72	181.47	183.67	184.08	184.92	184.23(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	77	40	60	129	0.66	47%	0.11	67.3	1.24%	0	1.3	74	INF

21	Oct_20_2015	169.36	177.07	180.73	182.37	182.71	184.55	184.69(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	107	80	98	132	0.59	47%	0.09	64	1.24%	0	1.6	76	INF
22	Oct_19_2015	169.2	176.35	179.82	181.38	181.21	183.25	185.26(1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	134	80	132	139	0.64	47%	0.11	65.8	1.24%	0	1.9	81	INF
23	Oct_16_2015	169.01	175.67	178.95	180.37	180.12	180.86	183.42(1.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	104	20	93	136	0.93	47%	0.09	74.1	1.23%	0	1.8	85	INF
24	Oct_15_2015	168.85	175.02	178.17	179.47	179.45	179.17	180.77(1.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	-10	3	101	0.51	45%	0.08	79.8	1.23%	0	1.5	70	INF
25	Oct_14_2015	168.71	174.46	177.61	178.96	179.16	179.37	177.73(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	26	10	-2	111	0.57	42%		87.3	1.21%	0	0.8	69	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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