Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 22, 2015

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $48.0800 (0.8%) ($47.5300 - $48.4700) on Thu. Jan. 22, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.42% (three month average)
RSI   25
Latest Price   $48.0800(0.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM declines -3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(64%)    VYM(64%)    XLB(59%)    SPY(58%)    XLF(58%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -0.71% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-24%)    VIXM(-21%)    UUP(-9%)    TIP(-6%)    SHY(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.71% (StdDev 1.42%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $40.3(-16.18%)
Resistance Level   $49.81
5 Day Moving Average   $47.57(1.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $47.96(0.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $49.81(-3.47%)
To recent high   -10.5%
To recent low   7.8%
Market Cap   $26.732b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 4.24% (three month std-dev: 1.42%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 8 Average positive next day return: 1.15%(63%) Average negative next day return: -1.7%(38%) Sample size 8 Average positive next three day return: 2.23%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -3.36%(50%) Sample size 8 Average positive next weekly return: 2.82%(38%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.07%(63%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_22_2015	49.9	49.81	47.96	47.57	47.48	47.73	48.08(0.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-12	30	24	-118	4.55	47%	-0.04	-42.9	1.42%	0	-0.8	25	INF
2	Jan_21_2015	49.92	50.04	48.13	47.45	47.3	47.27	47.7(1.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-42	-10	-2	-160	3.99	47%	-0.04	-37.2	1.41%	0	-1.1	20	INF
3	Jan_20_2015	49.94	50.27	48.28	47.56	47.32	47.23	47.2(-1.01%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-61	-30	-17	-192	5.36	50%	-0.06	-30.6	1.41%	0	-1.3	15	INF
4	Jan_16_2015	49.97	50.49	48.57	47.77	47.64	47.33	47.68(1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-62	-50	-15	-201	3.15	53%	-0.04	-29.1	1.46%	0	-1.3	15	INF
5	Jan_15_2015	49.99	50.61	48.98	47.99	47.94	47.4	47.21(-0.51%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-83	-80	-40	-211	4.26	53%	-0.06	-31.1	1.46%	0	-1.6	14	INF

6	Jan_14_2015	50.02	50.74	49.46	48.4	48.41	47.95	47.45(-1.72%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-82	-70	-41	-206	4.24	49%	-0.02	-36.6	1.45%	0	-1.7	15	INF
7	Jan_13_2015	50.03	50.88	49.99	48.9	48.83	48.47	48.28(0.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-63	-60	-26	-172	4.43	47%	-0.04	-38.5	1.52%	0	-1.4	22	INF
8	Jan_12_2015	50.05	50.98	50.47	49.09	49.2	48.87	48.21(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-58	-40	-26	-154	3.87	47%	-0.02	-46.6	1.58%	0	-1.6	27	INF
9	Jan_9_2015	50.06	51.13	50.99	49.5	49.51	49.18	48.82(-0.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-59	-50	-35	-129	3.69	44%	0	-48.6	1.59%	0	-1.4	39	INF
10	Jan_8_2015	50.06	51.27	51.43	50.14	49.92	49.53	49.24(-1.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-49	-70	-37	-84	7.47	41%	-0.02	-47.6	1.6%	0	-1.3	52	INF

11	Jan_7_2015	50.07	51.46	51.83	50.69	50.65	49.83	49.97(1.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-40	-120	-40	-39	2.85	40%	0	-41.1	1.64%	0	-1	58	INF
12	Jan_6_2015	50.07	51.59	52.12	51.27	51.29	50.31	49.23(-1.97%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-53	-130	-68	-9	4.86	39%	0	-30.5	1.65%	0	-1.6	51	INF
13	Jan_5_2015	50.07	51.8	52.46	52.05	52.1	51.47	50.22(-3.46%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.4	-26	-80	-50	46	3.83	41%	0	-14.9	1.63%	0	-1.2	57	INF
14	Jan_2_2015	50.07	51.93	52.59	52.69	52.69	52.27	52.02(0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	3	-60	-25	88	2.04	45%	0.04	-3.5	1.58%	0	0.1	59	INF
15	Dec_31_2014	50.05	52	52.39	52.91	52.98	52.73	52(-1.68%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	7	-30	-21	91	2.6	43%	0.06	3.4	1.58%	0	0	55	INF

16	Dec_30_2014	50.02	52.06	52.16	53.14	53.18	53.11	52.89(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	18	-10	-4	85	2.23	45%	0.06	9.2	1.58%	0	0.6	47	INF
17	Dec_29_2014	49.99	52.03	51.86	53.11	53.19	53.24	53.13(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	23	10	7	72	1.76	45%	0.08	7.8	1.58%	0	0.8	52	INF
18	Dec_26_2014	49.95	52	51.54	52.93	53.03	53.26	53.42(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	28	40	21	48	1.32	45%	0.12	4.9	1.58%	0	1	48	INF
19	Dec_24_2014	49.89	51.97	51.27	52.48	52.69	53.15	53.11(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	36	70	40	25	1.73	45%	0.1	-1.1	1.59%	0	0.8	50	INF
20	Dec_23_2014	49.84	51.95	51.06	51.79	52.06	52.8	53.17(0.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	36	120	53	-15	4.09	44%	0.12	-12.5	1.59%	0	0.9	45	INF

21	Dec_22_2014	49.78	51.93	51	51.02	51.19	52.24	52.72(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	30	150	56	-47	3.24	44%	0.12	-25.2	1.6%	0	0.6	45	INF
22	Dec_19_2014	49.72	51.92	50.94	50.44	50.52	51.32	52.24(2.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	26	120	58	-71	7.18	44%	0.12	-32.4	1.6%	0	0.2	48	INF
23	Dec_18_2014	49.66	51.93	51	49.96	50.02	50.14	51.16(3.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-14	20	17	-105	4.83	43%	0.1	-36.7	1.58%	0	-0.6	42	INF
24	Dec_17_2014	49.61	51.99	51.15	49.91	49.92	49.71	49.64(0.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-50	-30	-23	-131	4.85	40%	0.04	-33.5	1.54%	0	-1.7	31	INF
25	Dec_16_2014	49.59	52.12	51.55	50.23	50.35	49.9	49.32(-1.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-58	-60	-37	-120	3.74	41%		-26.7	1.54%	0	-2.3	31	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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