Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Nov. 17, 2008

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $25.6300 (-1.12%) ($24.5900 - $26.4800) on Mon. Nov. 17, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.28% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $25.6300(-1.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM advances 8.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(60%)    XLP(57%)    IWM(56%)    EWG(53%)    EEM(52%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -3.14% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-30%)    TIP(-11%)    SHY(-11%)    LQD(4%)    GLD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.14% (StdDev 6.28%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $25.11(2.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $24.07(6.48%)
20 Day Moving Average   $22.04(16.29%)
To recent high   -3.5%
To recent low   67.6%
Market Cap   $14.25b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 12.02% (three month std-dev: 6.28%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 3.86%(75%) Average negative next day return: -6.37%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 4.73%(25%) Average negative next three day return: -4.55%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 5.76%(25%) Average negative next weekly return: -9.77%(75%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20081217

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_17_2008	24.43	22.04	24.07	25.11	25.08	25.65	25.63(-1.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	29	160	10	86	7.76	48%	-0.33	73.8	6.28%	0	1.4	65	0
2	Nov_14_2008	24.51	21.74	23.62	24.7	24.59	25.29	25.92(2.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	37	190	17	95	11.87	48%	-0.24	74.6	6.28%	0	1.6	73	0
3	Nov_13_2008	24.57	21.35	23.1	24.03	24.1	24.51	25.27(2.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	41	130	22	98	13.69	48%	-0.36	75.8	6.27%	0	1.6	73	0
4	Nov_12_2008	24.66	20.98	22.81	23.03	23.34	23.9	24.56(1.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	27	210	7	87	9.86	48%	-0.32	68.3	6.26%	0	1.4	69	0
5	Nov_11_2008	24.74	20.56	22.49	22.86	22.78	23.69	24.16(2.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	30	270	6	101	9.53	48%	-0.4	68.1	6.27%	0	1.5	69	0

6	Nov_10_2008	24.84	20.24	22.16	22.9	22.95	22.79	23.57(4.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	40	-40	14	117	8.15	48%	-0.36	75.2	6.26%	0	1.4	62	0
7	Nov_7_2008	24.93	19.96	21.62	22.4	23.13	21.88	22.58(11.29%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	20	-280	-4	91	8.44	47%	-0.44	67.1	6.24%	0	1.1	59	0
8	Nov_6_2008	25.04	19.61	21.14	22.03	22.97	23.12	20.29(-14.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	8	170	-16	78	14.6	46%	-0.48	54.3	6.1%	0	0.3	59	0
9	Nov_5_2008	25.16	19.38	20.96	22.48	22.9	24.37	23.71(-2.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	46	510	23	116	10.53	47%	-0.4	53	5.88%	0	1.8	70	0
10	Nov_4_2008	25.26	19.03	20.38	22.03	22.38	22.81	24.33(15.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	49	180	26	117	19.28	47%	-0.32	42.1	5.92%	0	2.3	76	0

11	Nov_3_2008	25.34	18.64	19.85	21.36	21.6	21.42	21.11(1.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	32	-20	8	105	6.14	43%	-0.47	27.7	5.61%	0	1.3	61	0
12	Oct_31_2008	25.46	18.49	19.71	20.71	21.26	21.96	20.73(-8.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	38	310	18	99	12.48	43%	-0.51	13.8	5.61%	0	1.2	60	0
13	Oct_30_2008	25.59	18.37	19.47	20.07	20.32	21.78	22.54(5.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	52	540	35	104	8.01	45%	-0.54	-6.8	5.52%	0	2.4	73	0
14	Oct_29_2008	25.73	18.15	18.98	19.19	19.03	20.57	21.42(2.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	49	540	34	92	10.33	45%	-0.62	-34.7	5.48%	0	2	72	0
15	Oct_28_2008	25.89	18.11	18.44	18.49	18.25	18.87	20.98(17.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	31	200	21	59	9.44	44%	-0.65	-50.1	5.47%	0	1.7	63	0

16	Oct_27_2008	26.06	18.12	18.13	18.19	17.89	17.48	17.88(2%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	2	-210	-13	47	8.96	38%	-0.76	-61.2	5.02%	0	-0.1	56	0
17	Oct_24_2008	26.26	18.24	18.15	18.59	18.29	17.64	17.53(-3.36%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	6	-300	-13	63	9.06	38%	-0.79	-54	5.01%	0	-0.4	49	0
18	Oct_23_2008	26.47	18.49	17.98	18.75	18.85	18.29	18.14(1.23%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	10	-190	-5	55	10.16	38%	-0.75	-47.6	5%	0	-0.2	50	0
19	Oct_22_2008	26.67	18.74	17.72	18.69	18.84	18.95	17.92(-7.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	13	60	5	36	8.78	38%	-0.78	-41	4.99%	0	-0.3	49	0
20	Oct_21_2008	26.88	19.01	17.63	18.32	18.56	19.41	19.47(-2.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	13	360	17	-1	6.58	40%	-0.74	-38.2	4.91%	0	0.2	44	0

21	Oct_20_2008	27.08	19.2	17.37	18.05	17.92	18.72	19.88(8.52%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	5	290	20	-40	10.12	40%	-0.73	-38	4.91%	0	0.2	44	0
22	Oct_17_2008	27.28	19.35	17.18	17.69	17.77	17.71	18.32(2.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-1	-10	21	-68	14.2	39%	-0.76	-38.9	4.82%	0	-0.4	44	0
23	Oct_16_2008	27.49	19.6	17.17	17.12	17.52	17.12	17.84(10.88%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-23	-90	9	-119	13.51	39%	-0.79	-44.5	4.8%	0	-0.6	37	0
24	Oct_15_2008	27.71	19.79	17.23	16.61	16.96	17.84	16.09(-11.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-48	430	-5	-175	8.67	33%	-0.96	-51	4.59%	0	-1.3	29	0
25	Oct_14_2008	27.98	20.06	17.74	16.79	16.83	17.92	18.1(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-21	460	30	-172	7.83	36%		-52.4	4.44%	0	-0.7	32	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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