Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Aug. 12, 2008

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $26.9100 (2.16%) ($26.0400 - $27.2500) on Tue. Aug. 12, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.43% (three month average)
RSI   32
Latest Price   $26.9100(2.16%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM declines -4.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(64%)    EEM(59%)    EWG(58%)    IWM(58%)    VWO(57%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -1.215% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-29%)    SHY(-16%)    TIP(-10%)    GLD(7%)    LQD(12%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.215% (StdDev 2.43%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.2%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $17.92(-33.41%)
Resistance Level   $28.24
5 Day Moving Average   $26.63(1.05%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.17(-0.96%)
20 Day Moving Average   $28.24(-4.71%)
To recent high   -38.8%
To recent low   4%
Market Cap   $14.962b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 4.75% (three month std-dev: 2.43%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 4.76%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.05%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 10.38%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -1.03%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 12.8%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.03%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080912

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_12_2008	37.43	28.24	27.17	26.63	26.46	26.51	26.91(2.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-21	-10	11	-116	9.4	23%	-0.4	-66.3	2.43%	0	-1	32	NAN
2	Aug_11_2008	37.58	28.33	27.35	26.42	26.45	26.29	26.34(-0.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-44	-40	-10	-145	6.83	23%	-0.29	-82.5	2.41%	0	-1.5	28	NAN
3	Aug_8_2008	37.69	28.5	27.59	26.63	26.55	26.42	26.49(1.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-50	-40	-19	-144	7.82	22%	-0.37	-87.6	2.45%	0	-1.5	33	NAN
4	Aug_7_2008	37.83	28.7	27.91	26.96	26.96	26.61	26.03(-4.86%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-50	-90	-22	-134	6.95	22%	-0.45	-84.3	2.45%	0	-2	28	NAN
5	Aug_6_2008	38	28.96	28.3	27.48	27.42	26.68	27.36(5.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-49	-200	-30	-107	13.74	23%	-0.42	-80.3	2.41%	0	-1.3	45	NAN

6	Aug_5_2008	38.16	29.16	28.56	27.81	27.98	27.31	25.87(-5.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-57	-150	-44	-94	18.44	17%	-0.44	-76.2	2.28%	0	-2.4	32	NAN
7	Aug_4_2008	38.33	29.48	28.99	28.41	28.51	28.16	27.4(-2.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-29	-80	-23	-46	7.29	18%	-0.42	-78.5	2.2%	0	-1.7	46	NAN
8	Aug_1_2008	38.49	29.7	29.22	28.68	28.74	28.64	28.16(-1.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-21	-20	-17	-32	3.59	19%	-0.44	-82.3	2.21%	0	-1.4	39	NAN
9	Jul_31_2008	38.66	29.85	29.4	28.98	28.91	28.86	28.63(-1.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-13	-20	-11	-17	8.15	19%	-0.41	-83.3	2.22%	0	-1.1	39	NAN
10	Jul_30_2008	38.82	30.03	29.4	29.24	29.16	28.83	28.98(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-17	-90	-14	-27	8.66	18%	-0.38	-78.5	2.23%	0	-0.9	35	NAN

11	Jul_29_2008	38.97	30.23	29.42	29.46	29.49	28.96	28.88(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-27	-120	-22	-41	7.11	17%	-0.38	-64.8	2.25%	0	-1	33	NAN
12	Jul_28_2008	39.12	30.47	29.39	29.67	29.81	29.48	28.77(-3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-28	-60	-18	-58	7.48	17%	-0.41	-54.2	2.28%	0	-1.1	30	NAN
13	Jul_25_2008	39.28	30.67	29.49	29.83	29.81	30.01	29.66(-0.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-19	30	-4	-62	4.13	21%	-0.43	-50.4	2.27%	0	-0.7	34	NAN
14	Jul_24_2008	39.45	30.81	29.54	29.88	29.91	30.14	29.89(-0.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-1	60	18	-58	7.08	20%	-0.43	-51	2.3%	0	-0.6	42	NAN
15	Jul_23_2008	39.62	30.98	29.66	29.63	29.68	29.8	30.08(0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-9	30	14	-79	6.3	20%	-0.43	-52.1	2.32%	0	-0.6	37	NAN

16	Jul_22_2008	39.79	31.12	29.78	29.38	29.37	29.67	29.97(1.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-14	70	16	-104	6.02	20%	-0.4	-55	2.31%	0	-0.7	32	NAN
17	Jul_21_2008	39.95	31.3	29.96	29.06	29.04	29.56	29.53(-1.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-25	120	12	-135	5.08	24%	-0.4	-57.1	2.3%	0	-1	27	NAN
18	Jul_18_2008	40.11	31.46	30.19	29.12	28.78	29.06	29.92(4.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-30	30	6	-139	8.8	24%	-0.4	-57.6	2.37%	0	-0.9	35	NAN
19	Jul_17_2008	40.27	31.62	30.31	29.19	28.99	28.53	28.64(-0.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-56	-130	-20	-162	7.34	19%	-0.42	-58.5	2.3%	0	-1.8	30	NAN
20	Jul_16_2008	40.44	31.84	30.66	29.71	29.46	28.49	28.85(1.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-74	-260	-46	-159	8.02	22%	-0.44	-68.1	2.31%	0	-2	28	NAN

21	Jul_15_2008	40.62	32.06	31.1	30.24	30.21	29.45	28.37(-4.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-73	-180	-51	-139	14.44	25%	-0.42	-78.8	2.32%	0	-2.7	26	NAN
22	Jul_14_2008	40.79	32.3	31.65	30.97	31	30.42	29.8(-1.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-46	-130	-29	-98	7.97	26%	-0.37	-104.6	2.3%	0	-2.4	29	NAN
23	Jul_11_2008	40.94	32.45	31.97	31.4	31.4	30.98	30.29(-3.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-35	-90	-21	-76	9.04	26%	-0.37	-135.4	2.3%	0	-2.5	38	NAN
24	Jul_10_2008	41.09	32.62	32.21	31.57	31.67	31.58	31.25(-0.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-27	-10	-12	-71	6.6	28%	-0.34	-184.1	2.28%	0	-1.9	40	NAN
25	Jul_9_2008	41.23	32.9	32.42	31.75	31.78	31.83	31.5(-1.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-24	10	-12	-60	6.18	28%		-113.7	2.28%	0	-1.2	43	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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