Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Feb. 21, 2006

Trading Signals: ADM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Archer-Daniels-Midland Company)
ADM latest price $31.1900 (3.69%) ($30.1900 - $31.3200) on Tue. Feb. 21, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.18% (three month average)
RSI   46
Latest Price   $31.1900(3.69%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ADM advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ADM advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ADM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(61%)    EEM(57%)    EWG(56%)    IWM(55%)    VWO(55%)
Factors Impacting ADM price   ADM will decline at least -1.09% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    SHY(-16%)    TIP(-10%)    REMX(1%)    LQD(9%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.09% (StdDev 2.18%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $30.67(1.7%)
10 Day Moving Average   $30.68(1.66%)
20 Day Moving Average   $30.09(3.66%)
To recent high   -1%
To recent low   33.2%
Market Cap   $17.342b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. processes oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa and other agricultural commodities. The company operates through the following segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, Wild Flavors & Specialty Ingredients and Agricultural Services. The Oilseeds Processing segment includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, crushing, and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. The Corn Processing segment engages in corn wet milling and dry milling activities; and also converts corn into sweeteners, starches, and bioproducts. The Wild Flavors and Specialty Ingredients segment manufactures, sells, and distributes specialty products including natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, other specialty food, and feed ingredients. The Agricultural Services segment utilizes its extensive United States grain elevator and global transportation network to buy, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice and barley. It resells these commodities primarily as food and feed ingredients and as raw materials for the agricultural processing industry. Archer-Daniels-Midland was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. ADM price fluctuates within 3.36% (three month std-dev: 2.18%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.69%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0.73%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.82%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 3.06%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.69%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060321

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_21_2006	25.86	30.09	30.68	30.67	30.57	30.56	31.19(3.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	8	-10	5	16	6.58	71%	0.31	73.2	2.18%	0	1.1	46	0
2	Feb_17_2006	25.78	29.93	30.54	30.58	30.6	30.46	30.08(-1.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-2	-30	-8	16	3.38	71%	0.23	66.8	2.13%	0	0.1	62	0
3	Feb_16_2006	25.72	29.82	30.55	30.71	30.7	30.57	30.57(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	1	-30	-10	32	3.62	71%	0.27	69.7	2.13%	0	0.6	64	0
4	Feb_15_2006	25.65	29.7	30.52	30.85	30.84	30.74	30.6(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	12	-20	-4	59	4.4	71%	0.27	77	2.13%	0	0.7	66	0
5	Feb_14_2006	25.58	29.57	30.48	30.86	31	30.82	30.9(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	25	-30	5	83	4.21	71%	0.35	78.3	2.13%	0	1	71	0

6	Feb_13_2006	25.49	29.37	30.52	30.68	30.85	30.94	30.75(0.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	29	40	4	102	2.72	71%	0.31	77.4	2.14%	0	1	67	0
7	Feb_10_2006	25.41	29.18	30.33	30.49	30.63	31.17	30.72(-1.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	41	140	18	108	4.26	71%	0.32	73.5	2.14%	0	1.1	68	0
8	Feb_9_2006	25.33	29	30.16	30.35	30.37	30.76	31.3(2.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	49	90	26	119	6.16	71%	0.4	76.3	2.12%	0	1.6	74	0
9	Feb_8_2006	25.23	28.77	29.88	30.14	30.12	30.08	30.62(2.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	30	-10	5	106	4.81	70%	0.32	77.9	2.11%	0	1.3	66	0
10	Feb_7_2006	25.15	28.55	29.62	30.05	30.15	29.98	29.99(0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	12	-30	-16	96	4.24	68%	0.32	81.6	2.1%	0	1	65	0

11	Feb_6_2006	25.07	28.37	29.46	30.36	30.26	30.17	29.84(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	35	-30	1	138	3.66	68%	0.28	93.7	2.12%	0	1	70	0
12	Feb_3_2006	25	28.18	29.28	30.14	30.45	30.31	30(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	44	-0	11	144	4.72	68%	0.28	91.1	2.12%	0	1.2	71	0
13	Feb_2_2006	24.93	27.95	29.04	29.91	30.12	30.35	30.25(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	44	70	12	139	5.97	68%	0.32	85	2.12%	0	1.5	70	0
14	Feb_1_2006	24.85	27.73	28.82	29.55	29.7	30.58	30.19(-4.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	65	220	38	145	12.58	68%	0.28	84	2.12%	0	1.7	71	0
15	Jan_31_2006	24.78	27.44	28.59	29.11	29.2	29.89	31.5(9.6%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.6	82	170	58	152	15.75	73%	0.32	71.3	2.04%	0	2.7	82	0

16	Jan_30_2006	24.7	27.09	28.1	28.47	28.55	28.82	28.74(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	46	70	19	128	3.96	68%	0.24	74.7	1.67%	0	1.4	72	0
17	Jan_27_2006	24.64	26.91	27.91	28.31	28.39	28.52	28.87(1.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	48	40	22	124	3.44	71%	0.24	68.8	1.75%	0	1.6	75	0
18	Jan_26_2006	24.58	26.72	27.73	28.04	28.19	28.27	28.44(1.64%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	34	40	5	121	2.78	71%	0.2	68.5	1.76%	0	1.4	78	0
19	Jan_25_2006	24.53	26.55	27.56	28.04	28.08	28.26	27.98(-1.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	36	60	5	129	4.76	71%	0.2	70.8	1.77%	0	1.2	67	0
20	Jan_24_2006	24.48	26.41	27.39	27.98	28.03	28.11	28.34(1.43%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	59	30	24	163	2.65	71%	0.16	72.2	1.76%	0	1.6	78	0

21	Jan_23_2006	24.44	26.22	27.19	27.67	27.76	27.89	27.94(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	49	40	12	161	3.2	71%	0.16	68.3	1.76%	0	1.5	73	0
22	Jan_20_2006	24.4	26.07	27	27.44	27.5	27.96	27.52(-2.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	53	120	17	161	4.15	66%	0.16	68.2	1.75%	0	1.3	66	0
23	Jan_19_2006	24.36	25.91	26.79	27.35	27.28	27.63	28.11(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	65	80	32	164	4.32	69%	0.25	65.2	1.78%	0	2	70	0
24	Jan_18_2006	24.3	25.72	26.56	27.08	27.01	27.04	27.98(4.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	55	0	21	156	6.56	69%	0.25	64.2	1.78%	0	2.3	71	0
25	Jan_17_2006	24.24	25.57	26.21	26.72	26.85	26.93	26.78(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	34	40	4	123	3.3	66%		61.3	1.69%	0	1.4	63	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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