Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Dec. 9, 2016

Trading Signals: AAL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(American Airlines Group Inc)
AAL latest price $48.6119 (3.31%) ($47.7305 - $49.5912) on Fri. Dec. 9, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.8% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $48.6119(3.31%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   AAL advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   AAL advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support AAL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JETS(83%)    PEJ(63%)    IWN(55%)    XAR(55%)    XLI(55%)
Factors Impacting AAL price   AAL will decline at least -0.9% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-15%)    VIXM(-11%)    UUP(-11%)    IGOV(-9%)    SHY(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.9% (StdDev 1.8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $46.71(4.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $46.1(5.45%)
20 Day Moving Average   $45.28(7.36%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   43.5%
Market Cap   $24.722b

American Airlines Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the operation of a network carrier through its principal wholly-owned mainline operating subsidiary, American. The firm offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. It operates through the following geographical segments: Department of Transportation Domestic; Department of Transportation Latin America; Department of Transportation Atlantic; and Department of Transportation Pacific. The company was founded on December 9, 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX.

$. AAL price fluctuates within 3.29% (three month std-dev: 1.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 1.26%(15%) Average negative next day return: -2.49%(85%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 1.65%(23%) Average negative next three day return: -3.22%(77%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 8.14%(23%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.63%(77%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170109

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_9_2016	38.2	45.28	46.1	46.71	46.95	47.89	48.61(3.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	62	160	57	76	9.85	90%	0.39	102.1	1.8%	0	2.2	68	0
2	Dec_8_2016	38.05	44.92	45.79	46.02	46.09	46.96	47.05(-1.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	47	140	46	51	6.24	89%	0.32	97.9	1.79%	0	1.4	65	0
3	Dec_7_2016	37.93	44.65	45.61	45.57	45.6	46	47.64(4.78%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	40	60	39	43	10.21	91%	0.34	94.3	1.79%	0	1.9	76	0
4	Dec_6_2016	37.8	44.31	45.34	45.13	45.23	45.21	45.47(1.55%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	3	0	-2	18	5.33	89%	0.27	91.7	1.79%	0	0.7	65	0
5	Dec_5_2016	37.7	44.08	45.31	45.22	45.22	45.2	44.77(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	4	-0	-8	38	5.26	89%	0.27	88.9	1.78%	0	0.4	70	0

6	Dec_2_2016	37.6	43.81	45.37	45.38	45.37	45.25	45.15(0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	14	-20	-4	69	6.51	89%	0.27	78.3	1.79%	0	0.7	75	0
7	Dec_1_2016	37.5	43.5	45.35	45.52	45.42	45.24	44.8(-1.49%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	17	-30	-11	99	7.44	89%	0.32	71.6	1.79%	0	0.6	77	0
8	Nov_30_2016	37.38	43.21	45.24	45.63	45.52	45.49	45.48(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	31	-10	-1	125	7.9	89%	0.32	69.3	1.79%	0	0.9	82	0
9	Nov_29_2016	37.26	42.89	45.09	45.56	45.49	45.6	45.92(0.84%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	43	10	7	149	4.89	89%	0.4	66.9	1.8%	0	1.2	88	0
10	Nov_28_2016	37.11	42.57	44.76	45.4	45.38	45.54	45.54(-0.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	44	20	6	159	7.37	89%	0.46	67.9	1.8%	0	1.2	88	0

11	Nov_25_2016	36.94	42.25	44.43	45.36	45.36	45.39	45.85(1.04%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	55	0	11	187	2.43	89%	0.71	68.7	1.81%	0	1.4	93	0
12	Nov_23_2016	36.68	41.9	44	45.16	45.25	45.23	45.38(0.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	60	0	11	208	5.16	89%	0.47	66.7	1.79%	0	1.4	93	0
13	Nov_22_2016	36.51	41.55	43.62	44.79	44.98	45.32	45.13(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	67	70	16	220	5.78	89%	0.25	62.7	1.79%	0	1.5	90	0
14	Nov_21_2016	36.42	41.23	43.2	44.53	44.54	45.26	45.13(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	87	110	37	236	6.65	89%	0.47	63.7	1.81%	0	1.7	89	0
15	Nov_18_2016	36.25	40.9	42.75	44.01	44.14	44.64	45.3(0.94%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	96	90	51	231	7.8	89%	0.5	64.6	1.81%	0	2	80	0

16	Nov_17_2016	36.07	40.57	42.11	43.36	43.43	43.82	44.88(3.1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	74	70	33	198	8.56	89%	0.5	66.8	1.81%	0	2.2	81	0
17	Nov_16_2016	35.89	40.29	41.48	42.67	42.79	43.64	43.53(-0.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	69	150	35	171	6.17	89%	0.5	70.3	1.78%	0	2	79	0
18	Nov_15_2016	35.71	40.08	41.01	42.27	42.34	43.04	43.83(3.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	86	120	59	168	13.17	89%	0.53	79.9	1.79%	0	2.5	83	0
19	Nov_14_2016	35.52	39.8	40.5	41.67	41.59	41.94	42.5(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	52	50	26	131	7.77	87%	0.45	83.5	1.78%	0	2.1	75	0
20	Nov_11_2016	35.36	39.55	40.19	41.29	41.16	41.64	42.04(1.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	57	70	34	126	6.62	87%	0.37	82.1	1.78%	0	2.1	72	0

21	Nov_10_2016	35.23	39.33	39.89	40.67	40.81	41.24	41.42(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	59	80	44	102	8.67	87%	0.34	80.5	1.79%	0	2	69	0
22	Nov_9_2016	35.11	39.17	39.64	40.1	40.07	40.68	41.53(1.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	41	100	32	66	8.39	87%	0.37	68.1	1.8%	0	2.2	61	0
23	Nov_8_2016	34.98	38.92	39.31	39.55	39.6	40.37	40.84(0.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	42	140	44	36	5.73	87%	0.34	57.5	1.79%	0	2	57	0
24	Nov_7_2016	34.86	38.74	39.09	39.16	39.17	39.45	40.63(4.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	24	50	27	13	8.33	87%	0.35	55.1	1.79%	0	2.1	65	0
25	Nov_4_2016	34.74	38.6	38.9	38.96	38.95	38.83	38.92(0.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-5	-20	-6	0	6.72	85%		57.7	1.74%	0	0.4	62	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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